Friday, September 21, 2012

Cycle Update: 9/17H, 9/19L, Up into 9/24H

From last weekend's 9/15 email: "The active cycle suggests  a rally into 9/17H, decline into 9/19 Low, rally into 9/24 High, all +/- 1 TD"

Actual: 9/14 High (-1), 9/20 Low (+1), next is Up into 9/24 cycle High.
The 9/17 Cycle High, arrived 1 TD earlier at the 9/14 High and the 9/19 Low arrived 1 hour later, in the 1st hour of 9/20 Low at 1449.98 SPX. We then reversed higher and rallied the rest of the day, closing at 1460.26 SPX yesterday. The rally phase should continue today.

What's next: We should continue to rally into 9/24 cycle High, before the next pullback.
Overall we should be higher into end of the year, with some sharp pullbacks along the way.
October should be full of surprises for many, but 2012 should end on an Up note.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Cycle Update: 9/10 High, 9/11 Low, up into 9/17 High

From the Daily Email 9/12 update:
"The recent active Cycle found, has been in the markets for over 5 months now, since the 4/2/12 High has seen many high Quality solid hits, with no Inversions (which is ideal) and all Pivots, all predicted Highs and Lows are often exact or +/- 1 TD and suggests the 9/11 Solar CIT was a LOW and we should rally into 9/17-18 Solar CIT.  I have not found a cycle this precise in many months. It suggests tomorrow 9/13 (Fed Day) will be a strong Up day and is Up into 9/17H"

This Cycle predicts: 9/10H,  9/11L, next is up into 9/17 High.

Actual: 9/10 High, 9/11 Low, Strong Up on FED Day as predicted and higher ever since the 9/11 Low.

I have not found a cycle this precise and active in many months.

Normal cycles versus Master Cycles 

With any of the Master Cycle and other cycles that are considered "active", all predicted Highs and Lows are +/- 1 TD.

The main rule that I use is the Cycle is not considered active, ie it will be incorrect,  if it exceeds this 1 TD variance of predicted Highs and Lows.

The benefit is you will know right away if the cycle is incorrect within 1-2 Trading days. If the Cycle is not active it should not be used for future predictions of Highs and Lows.

Other "normal" cycles, does not have this kind of accuracy, as all of them are +/- a couple of weeks.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Review and the 2012 T&C annual forecast

From last weekend's Email 9/1 forecast:  "The dominant Master Cycle suggests 9/1 High, 9/5 Lows of the week, then higher into Friday 9/7H"

Actual: The markets made an 8/31 High, dropped into 9/4 Low of the week and is now retesting  the 8/21 Highs today, 9/6.

The break above the mini sideways channel projects to a 1434 SPX target, which has been my long term target, where wave A = C = 1434.44 SPX (click on weekly chart to enlarge)

Wave A=7/1/10L-5/2/11H =359.67 SPX (360 degrees in price)

Wave C = 10/4/11L at 1074.77 + 359.67 = 1434.44 SPX

This  is likely by the 9/7 Master Cycle High.

So what is next?

The question is will the markets stop there?

The answer is Yes, but only for some time, before we make higher Highs.

In  my 2012 annual forecast, I had a rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs (Change in Trend), covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which became the Monday 6/4/12 Low right at the Open.

This 6/4/12 Low became the 187 week Cycle Low that was posted on my blog back in June 2012.

There is a Time and Cycle cluster mentioned in the annual forecast due right around the important November Elections that should be important to watch.

In my 2012 annual forecast, since the beginning of the year, for many reasons, had 2012 as an up year, which has been the case so far.