Wednesday, March 14, 2012

2012 is a bulish Year, but watch out for the 2013-15 Bear Years

On March 2nd, I mentioned a 120 Year Mega Crash cycle, that tops out on March 2012 and ends in July 2013 Major Low.

Some were lead to believe that this 120 year fixed Cycle was the main Cycle I was watching, which is not correct. The 120 year crash cycle is just one cycle of the many cycles I watch and it is not the most dominant right now. I posted it, as it was an interesting Cycle to note, but cycles expand and contract all the time , like the Universe and This cycle should expand to a later date imho.

In fact, 2012 should be a  volatile, but bullish year. I have many reasons to believe 2012 will end positive. Here are some reasons for a bullish 2012 and a bearish 2013-2015

1. The Master cycle suggests alot of volatility for 2012, but overall we should see a bullish 2012.
2. The January Barometer has good statistical odds and suggests 2012 should be a bullish year and supports the MC2 outlook.
3. The February effect, like the January effect is also bullish for 2012.
4. The election year cycle is generally bullish for 2012.
5. The Annual Forecast model is generally bullish for 2012.
6. The Chinese astrology is based on the 12 year Jupiter cycle and is bullish for 2012.

2012 is the year of the dragon and is bullish

2013 is the year of the Snake and is bearish
2014 is the year of the Horse and is bearish
2015 is the year of the Goat (sheep) and is bearish
In Chinese Astrology, which is the 12 year Jupiter Cycle, 2012 tends to bullish and 2013-2015 tends to be bearish.  Amazingly, this is the same findings of the 40 year depression Cycle.

The 40 year Depression Cycle
Bruce Larson at the Time & Cycles forum ( posted this:
"The poster below depicts the 1893 panic (120 years ago)

1893-1898 depression
1930-1933 Great Depression
!973-1975 Great Recession
All 40 years apart"

The next 40 year Cycle is 1973-75 + 40 years = 2013-15! 

Conclusion: The 120 year Cycle as well as the 40 year Cycle  and the Chines Astrology based 12 year Jupiter Cycle suggests trouble ahead between 2013 and 2015, but 2012 should still be a bullish year.


Marketguy said...

lol...way to change your tune "after" the market rips higher!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Lol Marketguy,

You don't really believe that, do you?

If you were a subscriber, you would know that was my outlook all along and it remains so into today...

k1en said...

why can't somebody change their tune ? a good trader is somebody who knows when to admit their wrong and then change their view. a bad trader is somebody who is stubborn as a mule and just carries on with their own view regardless of what the market is telling them.

k1en said...

why can't somebody change their tune ? a good trader is one who changes their views once the market shows they are wrong. a lousy trader is one who is stubborn and maintains their view regardless of market action. nobody has a all-seeing crystal ball so why cannot admit being wrong ?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

K1en, Good points. Those are correct observations. Longer Term, I remain a Bull for 2012, but there should be alot of volatility, large swigs up an down.

Here was the Shorter term outlook fwiw: The MC2 (Master Cycle2) called for a 2/29 High and from that high, it was looking for 3/6-9 MC2 Low, actual 3/6 Low. From there the MC2 projected a rally phase into Option expiration week...