Tuesday, April 1, 2008

The Series of Cycles

A while back I discovered a repeating Series (group) of cycles that has been in the markets for many years on and off and recently it predicted the July 16 2007 Highs to the day and subsequent sharp decline into 8/16/07 Lows (This was well documented in the T&C Group). When it worked, it was almost perfect, it also predicted in general the rally afterwards into the October Highs.

The Cycle then faded and inverted and didn't predict the magnitude of the decline after the October 07 Highs, which threw me off abit as I had become attached to the wonder and accuracy of the Cycle. Later I found, that there is a normal variance in the Cycle, when studying the "multiples" of the Cycle and it is mainly a Time Cycle, not a Price Cycle, ie it doesn't always predict the magnitude of the rallies and declines.

In general however, the series of cycles has been pretty good and in the last month or so, has reasserted itself. It recently predicted the 3/24/08 Highs and decline into 3/28/08 Lows. The actual Lows was a double Bottom right at the Open on Monday 3/31/08. The next very short term swing should be Up in the next couple of days.

The one thing about the Series of Cycles, it doesn't tell me in advance when it will stop working for awhile, before it reasserts itself, so buyer beware. I am not sure why it fades and then reappears in a crystal clear repetition, but I just take it as it comes and I work with many other Time & cycles techniques to confirm it is still dominating the markets.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The one thing about the Series of Cycles, it doesn't tell me in advance when it will stop working for awhile, before it reasserts itself, so buyer beware."

This is why market "timers" run hot and cold. They start selling subscriptions when their stuff is working, then all of a sudden, they have huge drawdowns and terrible performance. I see it all the time. The key is figuring out what changes in the market dynamics during these periods.

TimeandCycles Intraday CITs said...

Fwiw, The Series of Cycles forecasted a January 08 Low, a February High and it did call for the March 10 Low, but is still looking for an April 08 Low (see previous posts).

I also made a forecast for the the whole of 2008 based on it and yes it will fade and invert at times, but when ti works, it works..

It is a Time Series, so it is possible that the April Lows could be higher than the March 08 Lows.

Yes, many of greats on the T&C Group nailed the March 17th Low, that is what makes for a great trading Group.

Carl Horn said...

Well troops, I've had early April as an I/T hi off my mid March lows.

The next week or so might get interesting again if we're at or near a high.

TimeandCycles Intraday CITs said...

Good Luck to you Carl.

IanG

Carl Horn said...

Oh I haven't gone short yet. But am raising a fair amount of cash in my S/T accounts. Over 10% not counting leverage in 2-3 weeks is hard to turn away.

I can wait for the next dip to reload if I'm out and miss the little peak. No hurry here.