Trend line and channel support

No real decline can get going until the current Trendline and Channel support gets broken decisively.

94 TD, 168 TD & 273 CD cycles suggesting a 9/21 major swing High

Thanks to Bruce L. for alerting me that the 93 TD cycle is actually a 94 TD cycle. In the same way, the 167 TD is a 168 TD cycle that along with the 273 CD cycle suggests a 9/21 major swing High.

94 TD cycle due 9/24H+/-

168 TD cycle due 9/21H+/-

273 CD /9 Month cycle due 9/24H+/-

If 9/21/18 High gets confirmed, we should be ready for a sharp decline into October and possibly November major Lows.

Update: 273 CD Cycle

Rajacar‏ @TimeandCycles 4s5 seconds ago

The 167 and 93 TD Cycle seems stretched. The 273 CD/9 Month cycle suggests we top out at anytime, which may be the 9/21H

The G9 8/29H & the 167 TD and 93 TD cycle 9/13H+/-2

The "G9" (Geometric 9) CIT (Change in Trend) technique I learnt many decades ago from a gentleman, whose name was "G9" on the Crystal Ball forum http://www.crystalball-forum.com/context/main/crystal/. 

The G9 CIT pinpointed the 7/23/18 Low, 8/15/18 Low and the 8/29/18 swing High.

The 8/29/18 swing High was also part of the Flash Crash  75 week cycle, which I posted about in the past here, here and here to name a few.

The regular 167 TD (Trading Days) Cycle was also mentioned in the past here and is next due 9/13/18 +/-

167 TD  Cycle (Pink lines on chart): 9/19/14H -167-5/20/15H -167+1-1/20/16L-167-1-9/14/16L-167+2-5/18/17L-167- 1/16/18 - 167- 9/13/18H+/-2

The regular 93-94 TD Cycle was also a regular cycle mentioned in the past on this blog here and here and is next due 9/13/18+/-.

93 TD Cycle (red lines on chart): 9/29/15L -93- 2/11/16L -94- 6/27/16L -92- 11/4/16L -95- 8/8/17H -91- 12/14/17L -95- 5/3/18L -94- 9/13/18H+/-2

As fixed cycles can expand and contract, the 167 TD and 93 TD Cycle has a maximum +/-2 TD leeway and has been pretty consistent and suggests a 9/13/18 swing High +/-2.

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8/15 Cycle Lows

Rajacar‏ @TimeandCycles 3m3 minutes ago

It should be clear by now that 8/15 was the 45 TD Hurst swing Low at 33 TD (Trading Days) Long. In 2018, they have averaged 31 TD, This is in agreement with the active Biblical cycle Lows as well.

The 45 TD Hurst Cycle

The 45 TD Hurst Cycle is also in a declining phase

In 2018, the 45 TD Hurst Cycle has averaged 31 TD (Trading Days) so far, 

12/29/17L -28- 2/9L -34- 4/2L -23- 5/3L -39- 6/28L -33- 8/15L+ (ongoing)

Today, 8/15 it is 33 TD Long (from the last 45 TD Hurst Low at the 6/28L)

A Crisis of Confidence

The active biblical cycle does suggest the coming High will be a major High and afterwards we will see lower Highs & lower Lows and that eventually a crisis of Confidence will be coming, but that is only if the cycle remains active many months down the road, which is to be seen.

Biblical numerology

some may be wondering what this "Biblical numerology" that the active cycle is based on, is all about, here are some simple examples http://numerology.center/bible_num.php

Update

Rajacar‏ @TimeandCycles 4m4 minutes ago

The active biblical cycle was looking for an 8/2 Swing Low, then a multi week rally, with a short term 8/6-7H, but it is allowed to be a few days off, so we don't try to trade this too perfectly. In general we are higher for a number of weeks.

The active Biblical Cycle: 8/2L, 8/6H

The 25 TD Cyan Fixed cycle on the Emini SP (see above chart) and the 8 TD Cycle, which was at most 1 TD off, was the 8/2L

Fixed Cycles Cluster: 8/2/18L

The 139 CD, 90 CD, 358 TD & 331 CD fixed Cycles below were all the 8/2/18L. 

96 TD/139 CD Cycle: 2/25/15H-145-7/20/15H-135-12/1/15H-141-4/20/16H-140-9/7/16H-136-1/23/17L-(6/7/17  miss)-2 X 137.5 10/25/17L 139- 3/13/18H – 139- 7/30/18+/- => 8/2/18L

90 CD: 90 CD: 5/20/15H-8/18H-11/16L- 2/14/16H, 5/14+5L, 8/12+1H, 11/10L-6, 2/10/17L-2, 5/11H-2, 8/9/17H-1, 11/7/17H -94- 2/5/18 -83- 5/3/18L -90- 8/2/18L

358 TD Cycle: 5/12/04L-359-10/13/05L-354-3/14/07L-356-8/11/08H-357-1/11/10H-361-6/16/11L-358-11/16/12L-351-4/11/14L-369-9/29/15L-357-3/1/17H-358-8/02/18+/-=> 8/2/18L

331 CD/228 TD/46-47 wk Cycle: 8/11/08H-331-7/08/09L-335-6/8/10L-328-5/2/11H-336-04/02/12H-330-2/26/13L-329-1/21/14H-329-12/16/14L-335-11/16/15L-329-10/10/16H-330-9/5/17L- 8/2/18L.

There is an active “Biblical” cycle (a Cycle following biblical numerology) right now, which is our current bias and takes precedent above other cycles. This cycle may be off a few days, but it is still "active". An active Cycle is a cycle that is repeating past Highs and Lows and has at least 3-5 "hits".  

The active Biblical cycle recently predicted the 7/25 High and suggests  8/2 Low was the Low for some time. Next it is suggesting Monday 8/6+/-1 should be a short term High, before we see a retrace, then higher Highs afterwards. Once this cycle eventually tops out, be prepared for a giant roller coaster ride of biblical proportions.


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7/24 Geo CIT was the 7/23 Low instead

We have seen no reversal lower, so the current bias is the 7/24 Geo time CIT was the 10 TD Hurst Low at the 7/23 Low. 

We should now be rallying into a major Time & Cycle Cluster coming Up, will update when we get there.

7/24 short term High

Review: In our July 2 update, we were looking for a 7/2 major Low, with a hard retest of the 6/28 Low and a sharp rally afterwards: https://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-active-dominant-cycle-july-2-major.html

Actual: We made a 6/28-7/2 double Low and have since rallied into today's Highs. 

What's Next?: We are rallying into the 7/24 Geometric time CIT & 1st hourly CIT today, suggesting a 1st hour High at 2830 SPX channel resistance, but as bullish momentum is strong, we need a reversal lower to confirm. There is a 25 TD Cycle due 7/25 supporting a 7/24-25 short term High as well. 


2.44 pm Eastern Update:  We are seeing a nice reversal lower from the 1st hourly CIT High today, Key channel support to watch 2801 SPX and the 7/23 last siwng Low at 2795 SPX.


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July 9 Intraday Forecast versus Actual

The active dominant cycle: July 2 major swing Low.

Review: From the June 4th Raj T&C Weekend Email (One month ago): "There is a cluster of 6-7 fixed cycles all due end June/early July that should be a major High or Low"

Actual: The fixed cycles due end June/early July: the 80 CD Cycle, the 90 CD Cycle, the 95 CD Cycle, the 32-33 wk cycle, the 5 Month cycle and the 1308 CD Cycle are all due late June/early July should be a major swing Low based on the dominant active cycle shown below. Fixed cycles can expand and contract by a few days to a few weeks and are not exact, while an "active" cycle is a precise historic cycle as it is +/- 1 to 2 days max.

Review: From the June 23 Raj T&C Daily Email: "There is a possible active cycle (grey lines in chart), which is the current cycle bias, that suggests from 6/22H, we decline into 6/25L (1), rally into 6/27H (2) and decline into 7/2 swing Low (3)"

Actual: From 6/22H, we declined into 6/25L, rallied into 6/27H and we are now declining into 7/2 swing Lows, which makes the above active cycle the dominant cycle to watch.

What's Next: We should see a hard retest of the 6/28 Lows and ideally see lower Lows at today's projected July 2 major swing Low+/-2 and start a multi week rally phase. Bears beware.

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