7/24 Geo CIT was the 7/23 Low instead

We have seen no reversal lower, so the current bias is the 7/24 Geo time CIT was the 10 TD Hurst Low at the 7/23 Low. 

We should now be rallying into a major Time & Cycle Cluster coming Up, will update when we get there.

7/24 short term High

Review: In our July 2 update, we were looking for a 7/2 major Low, with a hard retest of the 6/28 Low and a sharp rally afterwards: https://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-active-dominant-cycle-july-2-major.html

Actual: We made a 6/28-7/2 double Low and have since rallied into today's Highs. 

What's Next?: We are rallying into the 7/24 Geometric time CIT & 1st hourly CIT today, suggesting a 1st hour High at 2830 SPX channel resistance, but as bullish momentum is strong, we need a reversal lower to confirm. There is a 25 TD Cycle due 7/25 supporting a 7/24-25 short term High as well. 


2.44 pm Eastern Update:  We are seeing a nice reversal lower from the 1st hourly CIT High today, Key channel support to watch 2801 SPX and the 7/23 last siwng Low at 2795 SPX.


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July 9 Intraday Forecast versus Actual

The active dominant cycle: July 2 major swing Low.

Review: From the June 4th Raj T&C Weekend Email (One month ago): "There is a cluster of 6-7 fixed cycles all due end June/early July that should be a major High or Low"

Actual: The fixed cycles due end June/early July: the 80 CD Cycle, the 90 CD Cycle, the 95 CD Cycle, the 32-33 wk cycle, the 5 Month cycle and the 1308 CD Cycle are all due late June/early July should be a major swing Low based on the dominant active cycle shown below. Fixed cycles can expand and contract by a few days to a few weeks and are not exact, while an "active" cycle is a precise historic cycle as it is +/- 1 to 2 days max.

Review: From the June 23 Raj T&C Daily Email: "There is a possible active cycle (grey lines in chart), which is the current cycle bias, that suggests from 6/22H, we decline into 6/25L (1), rally into 6/27H (2) and decline into 7/2 swing Low (3)"

Actual: From 6/22H, we declined into 6/25L, rallied into 6/27H and we are now declining into 7/2 swing Lows, which makes the above active cycle the dominant cycle to watch.

What's Next: We should see a hard retest of the 6/28 Lows and ideally see lower Lows at today's projected July 2 major swing Low+/-2 and start a multi week rally phase. Bears beware.

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The 15 CD/10-11 TD pattern

We have had 3 rally phases since the 4/2 Low. The 1st two were followed by a 15 CD/10-11 TD decline and suggests the decline from 6/13H should last 15 C/11 TD into 6/28/18L+/-,which we have now seen. Will this be the Low?

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Retest of Lows in the coming days

The projected 6/18L was the 1st hour 6/19L at the 55 TD Cycle & 6/18 Geo time CIT.

We touched upper down channel resistance yesterday and we are now declining off that High and remain firmly in the 5 min & hourly down channel.

We should see a retest of the Lows in the coming days.

June 18 Low

The 55 TD Cycle was due today Monday, 6/18.

The next Apex CIT was  due today, 6/18.

The next Geometric time CIT was also due today 6/18.

We have declined into 6/18 Geo Time CIT, 6/18 Apex CIT and 55 TD Cycle, suggesting a 6/18 short term Low is forming.

We remain in the large Pink channel since the 4/2 Low.

The 80-20% rule in the markets

The 80-20% rule is certainly in these markets (80% of the price move happens in the last 20% of time), but applies to most everything else in our lives. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCn8zs912OE

SP near pink channel resistance at the projected 6/7 High, will it hold?

SP near pink channel resistance at the projected 6/7 High, will it hold?

Raj Time and Cycles 6/6/18 Review & Forecast

In my last major Cycle update, I was looking for an 4/18-19 swing High

From 4/19 Daily Email: “From the 4/18-19H, we were looking for a 5 day sharp decline into 4/25L”

Actual: We made an 4/18H and saw a 5 day relatively sharp 105 SP decline into 4/25L.

The dominant cycle (green Lines) then predicted a choppy rally, with an 4/30H, 5/1L, 5/3H-1, 5/4 swing Low, followed by another rally into 5/10H+2, which was the 5/14 swing High.

The dominant cycle recently had 7 hits: 5/15L, 5/17H, 5/21L (5/18L -1), 5/22H, 5/29L, rally into 5/30H at the 5/30 Geo CIT and another decline into 6/1 Low (5/31L-1).

What’s next: We are looking for a short term 6/7 High, followed by another decline into XXX and another rally afterwards.

Daytraders: Intraday Time and Cycle Forecast:

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 6/06/18: 10.35-40, 12.35, 3.50, 4.15 pm Eastern

Actual:

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines: (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.10L

Actual: 9.45H, 10.10L

Wednesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle High+/- , decline to a 10.20 cycle Low at the 10.35-40 time CIT, rally to a 11.15 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at the 12.35 time CIT, rally to a 2.00 cycle High+/-30 min, decline to a 3.10 cycle Low at the 3.50-4.15 pm time CIT.

Actual: We gapped higher to a 9.45H and made a 10.10 1st hour Low so far.

The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

If the midday Low is lower than the 1st hour Low, it suggests a last hour lowest Low and Vice Versa.

Tomorrow’s intraday cycle is biased higher.

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5/14 Apex CIT High and 2.15-40 pm CITs

The most recent daily Apex CIT (Change in Trend) was on 5/14 at the 5/14H. The hourly Apex of the same, was on Friday 5/11 at the close. The actual swing High arrived a little more than 1 hour later on Monday 5/14 at 10.40 am. There are other future Apex Time CITs to watch.

The last 9 consecutive days saw an important CIT (Change in Trend) centered on 2.15-2.50 pm Eastern. 5 were High of Day (HOD) and 3 were a Low of day (LOD).

5/2 2.15HOD

5/3 2.45HOD

5/4 2.50HOD

5/7 2.40HOD

5/8 2.45LOD

5/9 2.15HOD

5/10 2.45L

5/11 2.15LOD

5/14 2.20LOD

5/15 2.15-50?

Short term Trends and the next daily Sun Jupiter 30 degrees

The last 5 consecutive days saw a CIT (Change in Trend) centered on 2.40-2.50 pm Eastern (red lines). The first 4 were High of Day (HOD) and yesterday was a Low of day (LOD).

5/2 2.15HOD

5/3 2.45HOD

5/4 2.50HOD

5/7 2.40HOD

5/8 2.45LOD

Will today be another 2.40-50 time CIT? 

In any case, there is 2683-84 SPX triple resistance above.

Meanwhile, we had another daily Sun Jupiter 30 degrees CIT on 5/8-9.

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3 Upcoming Apex CITs to watch

Within the large contracting triangle, we are in a smaller contracting (brown lines) triangle, with 2685 SPX, resistance and 2630 SPX support. A break out (large move) of the smaller triangle is imminent. (green lines is the active cycle).

The pink vertical lines are Apex CITs (Change in Trend) that has worked well in the past (see chart). There are 3 upcoming hourly Apex CITs to watch closely on 5/3, 5/8 and 5/11, suggesting the choppiness should continue for a while longer. The Daily Apex CITs falls on different dates, which gives daily time CITs.

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Stuck in a large triangle the last 3 months

From the projected 4/18H, we declined a profitable 104.72 SPs into 4/25 Low so far.

We remain in a large red contracting triangle the last 3 months, with 2738 SPX resistance and 2566 SPX support, whichever way it breaks, will determine the next 350 SP direction.

Per request, here is the crude monthly chart. 

I look at crude in the weekend Updates, the chart is in a clear up channel, with resistance at 71.56. There is a possible Junction point f Trendlines CIT for the April Month.

Monthly crude bottomed at the 37 month cycle back in June 2017 Low, before that there was a large monthly Apex CIT at the Feb 2016 Lows/