The Flash Crash cycle is coming

http://safehaven.com/article/44056/the-flash-crash-cycle-is-coming

The May 6 2010 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I first discovered a 360 Trading Day (TD, Gann’s 360 degrees) cycle and posted it on my public blog, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash Crash (FC) cycle of Lows. 

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows.  At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.

The dominant Flash Crash 360 TD / 75 week Cycle:

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks

04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks

04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks

04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks

04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks

04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks

04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks

04/14/00L – June 2017 = 12 X 360.00 TD

04/14/00L –  July 2017 = 12 X 75 weeks

The Flash Crash Lows were preceded by an average 18% decline:

1. 04/14/00 Crash Low saw a 213.57 SP decline,   a 14% decline.
2. 09/21/01 Crash Low saw a 371.18 SP decline,   a 28% decline.
3. 03/12/13 major Low saw a 165.38 SP decline,    a 17% decline
4. 08/13/04 major Low saw a 102.51 SP decline,    a  9% decline.
5. 11/21/08 Crash Low saw a 699.36 SP decline,   a 49% decline
6. 05/06/10 Flash Crash saw a 139.34 SP decline, a 12% decline
7. 10/04/11 Crash Low saw a 295.81 SP decline,    a 22% decline.
8. 01/20/16 Crash Low saw a 322.43 SP decline,    a 15% decline.

The exact 360 Trading Day cycle has deviated by only 2 to 8 TD:

04/14/00L +360 TD X 1   =  09/21/01 Crash Low, + 2 TD

04/14/00L +360 TD X 2   =  03/12/03 Major Low,   - 7 TD

04/14/00L +360 TD X 3   =  08/13/04 Major Low,   - 6 TD

04/14/00L +360 TD X 6   =  11/21/08 Crash Low,   - 4 TD

04/14/00L +360 TD X 7   =  05/06/10 Flash Crash, - 8 TD

04/14/00L +360 TD X 8   =  10/04/11 Crash Low,  – 5 TD

04/14/00L +360 TD X 11 =  01/20/16 Crash Low,  – 4 TD

Swing High before the Flash Crash Low

03/24/00H – 04/14/00L = 021 CD / 0.7 Months

05/22/01H – 09/21/01L = 122 CD / 4.0 months

12/02/02H – 03/12/03L = 100 CD / 3.3 months

06/24/04H – 08/13/04L = 050 CD / 1.7 Months

08/11/08H – 11/21/08L = 102 CD / 3.4 Months

04/26/10H – 07/01/10L = 066 CD / 2.2 Months

07/07/11H – 10/04/11L = 089 CD / 2.9 Months

11/03/15H – 01/20/16L = 078 CD / 2.6 Months

The declines from the swing High to the Flash crash Lows have averaged 78.5 CD or 2.6 Months +/-. The majority has varied from 2.2–3.4 months. This means we should top out an average of 2 ½ months before the projected June-July Flash Crash Lows.

The Biblical 7 year Cycle and the 360 TD Flash crash Cycle

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-biblical-7-year-cycle-and-360-td.html

Forecasted on 12/17/14 (see link above):

“The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD (Trading Days) from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.”

5 X 360 TD Flash Crash cycle is the 1800 TD cycle, which is the well known 7 year Biblical cycle, which suggested a sharp decline in January 2016, being 7 years/1800 TD, from the 11/21/08 Crash Lows, which was 7 years/1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Lows. The 1800 TD Cycle varies between 1790 and 1805 TD.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:

1.                  10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD

2.                  08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD

3.                  03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD

4.                  03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)

5.                  09/21/01L – 11/21/08L = 1805 TD

6.                  09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD

7.                  08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD

8.                  11/21/08L – 01/20/16L = 1800 TD

Conclusion: The Flash Crash Cycle of Lows pinpointed 8 major crash Lows, in the past 17 years, with an 18% average decline and has deviated maximum 2-8 TD from its exact 360 TD cycle. It has a 67% chance of seeing a decline into it. The 1800 TD/ 7 Year Cycle is 5 X 360 TD cycle, which has also pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past, including the recent 1/20/16 Low. If we are going to see a Flash Crash we should see a major swing High about 2 ½ months before we see a sharp 18% decline into the June-July Flash Crash Lows. That means we should top out in April or even as early as today’s 3/30-31 cycle High. You won’t want to miss the upcoming decline. Be forewarned and be prepared.

Raj Ian G. Thijm, Bsc, MBA

President of Raj Time and Cycles, Inc.

http://timeandcycles.com

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com

https://twitter.com/TimeandCycles

The 47 TD and 94 TD Cycle has a 3/27 Low+/-

Rajacar‏ @TimeandCycles  23m23 minutes ago

The dominant 47 TD that I have been following is a fractal of the 94 TD Cycle, that many other technicians know about

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT (vertical Cyan lines) Times 3/28/17: 11.05, 12.25, 2.20-35**, 3.50 pm Eastern

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Raj T&C Review and Forecast: Looking for a 3/1-2 Cycle High

http://safehaven.com/article/43814/raj-t-and-c-review-and-forecast-march-1-2-cycle-high

In my last public blogpost on 1/30/17, I was looking for a 1/26 major High.

From the 1/27 Raj T&C Daily Email: “The Cycle bias is 1/26 major High, decline into 2/2L+/-1, 2/3H, chop into a 2/9L and see a retest of the Highs at the 2/10H”

From the 2/3 Raj T&C Daily Email: “As the dominant cycle is a Time Cycle, it does not predict Price magnitude, so we could see a higher or lower High at the 2/10H”

Actual: We made a 1/26 High, decline sharply into 1/31 Low and 2/2 higher Low, we then rallied into 2/3H, chopped lower into 2/8L, 1 day earlier and rallied above the 1/26H and beyond 2/10H. The dominant cycle (shown as the Cyan lines on the chart) worked well through Friday 2/10, when a High was expected, but when we rallied strongly to fresh ATH on Monday 2/13, the cycle was confirmed Non active. The next day, on 2/14 evening Update, we made a forecast based on various Times and Cycles and E-waves (grey lines) looking for a continued rally into 3/1H.

From the 2/15 Raj T&C Daily Email: “The Cycle bias is we chop higher into 2/21H, decline into 2/23L and rally into 3/1H+/-1”

Actual: The markets unfolded as expected, with a 2/21H, 2/24L and we are now rallying into a 3/1 Cycle High.

What’s Next:  The forecast since 2/14 has remained on track for more than 2 weeks now. The recent rally since the 11/4/16 Low has been typical of a wave 3 rally, strong and relentless. We are still expecting a rally into 3/1-2 cycle High at the 2/28 Geo CIT or 3/3 Solar time CIT and start a retrace.