Friday, October 21, 2016

The Dominant alternating cycle

http://safehaven.com/article/42824/the-dominant-alternating-cycle

I first mentioned the 47 TD alternating cycle back on September 9 2016, when it was looking for an early September High. The 41-42 week cycle mentioned in that same post, also topped out at the same time and has an average 107 SP decline. 


The dominant 47 TD (Trading Days) alternating High and Low cycle has been in the markets since late September 2015 and suggests a 11/08/16 Election Low, with a minimum 2093 SPX channel Target.
                                                                                 
1. 09/29/15L - 12/02/15H, Low to High.
2. 12/02/15H - 02/11/16L, High to Low.
3. 02/11/16L - 04/20/16H, Low to High.
4. 04/20/16H - 06/27/16L, High to Low.
5. 06/27/16L – 09/07/16H, Low to High.
6. 09/07/16H – 11/08/16L, High to Low is next!

Also notice 34 TD, after the 47 TD Cycle High or Low is also a CIT (High or Low):
  1. 09/29/15L – 11/16/15L = 34 TD
  2. 12/02/15H – 01/20/16L = 32 TD
  3. 02/11/16H – 04/01/16H = 34 TD
  4. 04/20/16H – 06/08/16H = 34 TD
  5. 06/27/16L – 08/15/16H = 34 TD
  6. 09/01/16L – 10/19/16H = 33 TD


The Dow Jones
down channel support touches the 61.8% retrace by 11/8. If we do the same 61.8% in the SPX we will target 2069 SPX at the 200 DMA.

Conclusion:  The 34 TD CIT of the 47 TD Cycle arrived 1 day earlier at the 10/19H at 2148.44 SPX, which was a double Top with the 10/14 Apex CIT High at 2149.19 SPX.  From the 10/19H, the 47 TD Cycle suggests we see a choppy decline into 11/8 election Low, targeting 2093 SPX or 2069 SPX and a strong rally afterwards.

8 comments:

andre van Staveren said...

Ian,

Can the 47td cycle give inversions (h=l, v.v.)?

melt said...

Hi there, I stumbled upon your blog and I think your last 34day cycle should start on 09/07 not 09/01? And thus, your 34 cycle end date should be like Oct 21st not the 19th?

Am I correct to say that?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Andre, they have inverted yet, but it is always a first time they will.

Melt, yes there are two way of doing that and yes 34 TD from the 9/7H is 10/25.

SJ said...

I do not agree with Raj this time.

Poor Raj.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

SJ, Lol, thank you for your sympathy, we will know soon enough, No?

SJ said...

Hi, Raj

Market went down. Congratulations.

My projection.
Market may find a low tomorrow and go higher.
Tomorrow low could be higher than the low on Oct. 13.
Up into xxx . then Stock market rolling down.

XXX could be +/- 18 of Nov.

I hope my projection is wrong.

Trendtrader said...

hi, i agree with raj.
My Cycles suggest also a major change in trend on 11/6.
Your 11/18 should be a higher low in my therorie.

Peter Lo said...

or we can just cascade down like august 2015 after elections?