Friday, January 22, 2016

The Flash Crash Cycle and the infamous 7 year Cycle

Actual: 1/6-8 was one of those rare 10% misses as we declined beyond that in a mini crash wave.

Review: Back on 12/17/14, more than a year ago, I posted about the 7 year cycle and the 360 TD Cycle, where I predicted an important CIT (Change in Trend) on 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse and again January 2016.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:
1.               10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD (Trading Days)
2.               08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
3.               03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
4.               03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
5.               09/21/01L  11/21/08L = 1805 TD
6.               09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
7.               08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
8.               11/21/08L  01/20/16L = 1800 TD
9.               11/21/08L  01/27/16L = 1805 TD

Review from 12/17/14:
“The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD (Trading Days) from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.”

Actual: We saw a 9/29/15 Spike Low and we saw a sharp 269.27 SP mini Crash into January 20 2016 Low, exactly 1800 TD from the 11/21/08 crash Low.

Many years ago, back on May 16 2010, I first discovered and posted on my blog about a 360 TD (Trading Day)/525CD Flash Crash Cycle. That Flash Crash Cycle was next due in January 2016, but as the cycle expands and contracts we needed to find the exact date for the Low.  5 X 360 TD cycle is the 1800 TD cycle, which is the well known 7 year Biblical cycle, which suggested a sharp decline in January 2016, being 7 years/1800 TD, from the 11/21/08 Crash Lows, which was 7 years/1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Lows. The 1800 TD Cycle varies between 1790 and 1805 TD.

The 75 wk/525CD flash crash/360 TD Cycle had 2 misses between 8/13/04L and 11/21/08L and again between 10/4/11L and January 2016 Lows.
04/14/00L -358/525- 9/21/01L – 369/537- 3/12/03L -359/520 – 8/13/04L- 1078=
3X 360-2 or 3 X 520 CD+1 – 11/21/08L-356/521-4/26/10H-364/526-10/4/11L-+
3X 360-1, 3 X 523 CD   = 1/20/16L?
3X360+2, 3 X 525 CD   = 1/26/16L?


Since 04/14/00L the exact 360 Trading Day cycle has deviated +/- 2 to max 7 TD:
04/14/00.+ 0 TD=  04/14/00 Major Low
09/25/01 – 2 TD = 09/21/01 Major Low
03/03/03 + 7 TD = 03/12/13 Major Low
08/05/04 + 6 TD = 08/13/04 Major Low
11/17/08 + 4 TD = 11/21/08 Major Low
04/26/10 + 0 TD = 04/26/10 Major High
09/27/11 + 4 TD = 10/04/11 Major Low
01/13/14 + 4 TD = 01/20/16 Major Low?
01/13/14 + 7 TD = 01/25/16 Major Low?

Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low,  3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 4/26/10 major High and 10/04/11 crash Low. If History is any guidance, we should see a major crash Low between 1/20 and 1/26. There are some indications that 1/20/16 was that major Flash Crash Cycle Low, but we need to close solidly above the steep down channel to confirm that.


What’s next: The next major CIT date in the 7 year/1800 TD cycle is late April to early May 2016, being 1800 TD from the 3/6/09 major Low. 



2 comments:

giuseppe giase said...

Hi many thanks for your great methodology and explanation.

I have a question in this regard. You are saying the 7 year cycle is due tomorrow on the 26th January 2016. How can the next CIT of the 7year be late April 2016 again three month later ? How do I need to calculate or adapt the cycles waves counts properly ? Do you have any links that I can read and learn this methodology ?

Many thanks,
Jaze

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Jaze, 7 years/1800 Trading days form 11/21/08 was 1/20/16 and could expand to 1805 Trading days to 1/27/16.

The 3/6/09 major Low + 1800 Trading Days is Late April - early May 2016.

If you study the 1800 TD cycle you see some High and Lows in the past inverted.

This was my own discovery, so the best thing to do is research this blog on all flash crash cycles I have posted on in the past.

Hope that helps,

Raj