Friday, April 12, 2013

The Dominant Cycle forecasts


In my 4/3 public post I mentioned: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-flash-crash-cycle.html

"Even though there are good odds, it does not matter if a 7-12% Flash crash (FC) cycle occurs or not, what matters is that the dominant Cycle1 determines when exactly we should be long and then short if and when the FC does occur."


From the 4/2/13 Email:
"The dominant Cycle1 has been active and suggest an 4/1H, decline into 4/4L, 4/5-8H and 4/9L and then a rally into 4/16 higher Highs." 

Actual: We rallied into an 4/2 High (+1), declined into 4/5 Low (+1), rallied into 4/9H(+1) and saw a brief intraday 4/9 pullback Low, before the rally continued into All time Highs into today. The dominant cycle1 kept one from shorting prematurely as it was looking for an 4/5L and a rally to new All time Highs and with more to come.  

What's next: The dominant Cycle1 suggest the rally should continue into 4/17 High +/-1. The range we saw from 3/14 High into 4/5 Low, gives us a 1607.82 SPX target, which is close to the 1.272 extension at 1607.63 SPX and close to the expanding triangle trend line at 1606.79 SPX at the expected 4/17 High

You won't want to miss what happens next as the dominant cycle1 sees some wild swings afterwards.

24 comments:

pb said...

Thanks Raj for the update.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

pb, you're welcome, let's see what will actually unfold in OE manipulation week...

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Highs are already in, we got the Boston and Gold news to drive the markets lower.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

This comment belongs to my clients, but as some have asked questions, here it is:

I looked closely at the Cycle1 where there was a sharp decline, before the 4/17 High, and that occurred 1 TD before the 4/17 High was in. That decline occurred on 4/15. The entire decline was recovered and we still saw an 4/17 High.

If we don't see a recovery rally today and tomorrow, then the dominant Cycle1 will be off and the sharp decline that the Cycle1 was looking for has already started at the 4/11H.

Conclusion: we should still see an 4/17 lower or higher High.

dc-BEAR said...

thanx Raj -- you are kind for sharing your insights. I would venture to say it will lead to even more clients!
dc-bear

Alex Red said...

Hi Raj, the 4/17 high has already been exceeded and there isn't much time left for a FC in April.

dc-BEAR said...

A mini-FC literally just occurred--between 1:00 and 1:10pm EST--false news report. Hopefully more to come!
dc-bear

jj914 said...

Did we see the flash crash today?

Unknown said...

A Flash Correction maybe.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Folks all I can is all that, other than the 4/11H, all that has happened, including the rally into today was predicted by the dominant cycle1,
+/-1 TD, the 4/17 High, was the 4/16 High, decline into 4/19L, was 4/18L and the rally sofar was expected by my subscribers.

Alex Red said...

Raj, are you saying you have been predicting this rally all along?!?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Alex, yes so far...

wiseman said...

If we break early April highs will this throw off you cycles?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

wiseman, yes it would mean the cycle1 is not active anymore.

dc-BEAR said...

Hi Raj,
thanx again for sharing your insights. My 'cycles' indicate a wild week ahead – churn Mon & Tues with up day 1 May, then moderate 'flash crash' on 2 May… then off to the moon, starting with a higher high on 3 May.
Guess we'll need to wait another 75 weeks for anything more flashy... blame it on uncle Ben...

Best to you and your trades!
dc-bear

Suren said...

Raj:

Mars and the Vedic dragon aspect hits again on 5/13. Do you see a high like the last three aspects?

Cowen's beast cycle starts on 5/20. Does your wild moves in the markets coincide with his prediction after a Market top around 1,609 SPX?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

DC Bear,

The dominant Cycle1 was looking for a 4/17H, which was the 4/16H, then a decline into 4/19L, which was the 4/18L.

Next was a rally into 4/24 Highs, which was the 4/25 Highs. Next it was looking for a decline into 5/1 & 5/7 Lows.

The markets exceeded the 4/25 Cycle1 High today, meaning the Cycle1, after running the show for many months, with near perfection, is not working as it should anymore and will be put on hold. We still watch its future pivots for clues.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren,

the Mars opposite Rahu due on 5/13 has an interesting History associated with it.

I will update that some time.

dc-BEAR said...

Raj,

thanx for your update--blame it on the Fed--many things are not as they would seem. We'll try again in 75 +/- a few weeks...

As mentioned, projection for today is mixed with down bias. 1 May should be up with potential late day reversal (post Fed announcement), but 2 May will be a
headfake, sell-in-May day...then off to new highs starting on Friday, 3 May. At least as i see it...

Best to your trades--keep up the great work
dc-bear

wiseman said...

So is the flash crash total off now?

dc-BEAR said...

So...looks like my math was off a day...headfake was 1 May...anyway, TO THE MOON NOW!
best to your trades...watch for pullback Mon/Tues...then OFF TO MARS!!!

dc-bear

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Wiseman, yes the window has closed

wiseman said...

dc bear nice call

pb said...

anything new that you could share with us Raj - just to spark an interest in your servics