Premature Bears?

From last night's email:  
"Amazingly bearish sentiment remains High as PC ratios remain High, closing at 1.12 today. This supports the brief pullback idea before heading even higher afterwards. Most every E-waver on the various boards believe we are in a corrective wave 4 rally from the 8/9/11 Lows and everyone is expecting the next shoe to drop with a 5th wave to lower Lows. What everyone knows is not worth knowing or so the saying goes. This rally should last longer than most everyone expects."

The premature Bears are getting killed today as we rally to higher Highs.

PC Ratio is at 1.42 this morning with the market up +14 SP, is something brewing that the Bears know?

Gold weekly Change in Trend?

We saw a regular 55 and 89 week cycle arrived at last week's All time High at 1894 that touched the double upper Trend line resistance and reversed and dropped 177 points into 8/24 Lows.  

Corrections since November 2008 Lows:

1. 138.40 02/09H - 04/09L

2. 168.40 12/09H - 02/10L

3. 102.50 06/10H- 07/10L

4. 103.00 12/10H - 01/11L

5. 177.00 8/22/11H - 8/24/11L => Potential CIT to watch!

This is a noticeable Change in Trend wrt to the last 4 corrections since the November 2008 Lows, when the 3rd steepest uptrend began as we saw a sharper decline (177) than the last 4 corrections in a shortest amount of time (2 days).

Despite last week sharp reversal lower, as long as we remain above the 3rd higher trend line, currently at 1564, the trend remains bullish. A decline and close below 1564 would be bearish.

78.6% retraces rules

The 78.6% retrace has been ruling the recent market action as it retraces the recent swing Highs and Lows the last 3-4 times. This of course will end soon.

Today was an important day to watch for the next direction of the markets. A breakout is due.

Cycle Review and Update

Since my last Cycle update and review on this blog on 8/5:  

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/08/quick-review-cycles-and-trapdoor-to.html

1. The markets were expected to bottom out on the 8/8-12 week,  which it did on 8/9 Major Low

see the 8/11 blog post  "7 reasons for the Low to be in this week"

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/08/alert-7-reasons-for-low-to-be-in-this.html

2.  Cycles above (click on chart to enlarge) then suggested an 8/16-17 High and a sharp brief pullback retest Low into 8/18 Lows, which was the 8/22 Lows. From there we were expected to rally into 8/24 High. I had an hourly CIT at the close 8/24, which was the High at the Open today. 

3. What is next? Cycles are mixed as to what to expect as alot will depend on the next timing CIT coming up by this weekend. I have a double geometric CIT due on 8/26-28 and Mercury goes Direct on 8/26, it should be important to watch. (The rest is reserved for subs)

8/23/11 Intraday Forceast VS actual Result

Today's intraday chart, posted on the T&C Live Chat forum:  http://www.timeandcycles.com/board/chat/

Actual result:

Highest Correlation year

http://www.mrci.com/special/ddji07.php

Fwiw and FYI, 2007 is the highest correlation (86%) year of the last 100 years.

This suggests the bottom is in for now and we see an October High.

This also suggest 2012 should be the Panic year to watch.

Mars and the Dragon

I have written several research articles on Mars and the Dragon (Rahu or Moon's North Node) and how it negatively effects the stockmarket. You can read more here:

http://www.timeandcycles.com/board/viewtopic.php?f=43&t=286

An excerpt of this article: "Notice that the Mars Opposition Rahu played a direct role in the 3 biggest Crashes in the last Century!!
Ma opposite Rahu (exact) = 9/14/01! = 10/12/87! = 10/24/29!"

Most recently Mars opposite Rahu was due on 7/23/11 (Click on chart to enlarge, Mars op Rahu is the Cyan vertical line) and was clearly and directly involved in the most recent mini Crash.

Alert: 7 Reasons for the Low to be in this week

As many are wondering when the next major swing Low will be, here are

7 Reasons for the Low to be in this 8/9-12 week

1. Both the 7 and 3.5 Year Lunar Cycles suggests 8/10/11 Major Low +/-
2. I had a Long Term geometric CIT due on 8/9/11
3. The 55 TD cycle suggests 8/9L, 8/12H and 8/17 Low.
4. The dominant sq wk cycle  suggests the next decline is into the 8/12 Cycle Lows +/-3
5. The 17-18 week cycle and 20 TD Hurst Cycles suggests an 8/12-15 major Low +/-3 TD
6. There is today's 8/11 Solar CIT and we're declining into it. There is also a Monday 8/15 CIT
7. The NDX 66wk cycle is due in this 8/8-12 week

Be alert, it is possible 8/9/11 was the Low, but the 8/11 Solar CIT, Friday 8/12 Cycle CIT and Monday 8/15 CIT should be watched for the final confirmation.

Update of the 2011-2012 Master Cycle Forecast

The 2011-2012 Master Cycle Forecast

 The Master Cycle (MC) 1^st mentioned and forecasted in the beginning of 2011 (Cyan lines), was looking for generally higher prices into June 2011. We saw a May and July Major High instead. 

The HIGH of the year is confirmed in and we should now be weaker into the 2nd Half of the year and lower into November 2011 when the next 35 week cycle  (see chart) Lows are due.  1101 is 38% and 1018 is 50% retrace, right at the 7/1/10 Major Lows at 1010 SPX. The Price Magnitude is not a guarantee in the chart, but should be a general guideline. Other cycles that I watch confirms the MC outlook that we are now down the rest of the year and into 2012 Major Lows.

Quick review Cycles and the Trapdoor to Hell at 1260 SPX

Quick review of posts made in my private blog

1. My last commentary on this public blog on 7/8 was that we made a 7/7 Major High, which we saw  (#1 on chart, click on chart to enlarge)
2. Cycles were then suggesting a 7/14 Low, actual: NDX 7/14L, SPX 7/18L (#2 on chart).
3. We then rallied into 7/21-22 double CIT, making a double High with the 7/7 High (#3 on chart).
4. The next major CIT was Friday 7/29 Solar CIT and 8/1 Cycle CIT, which was an 8/1 lower High (#4)

The markets was looking for trouble when we closed below the Trapdoor to Hell at 1260 SPX Major support a few days ago. The markets also closed below the 3/16 Low at 1249.05 SPX, remains below the 200 DMA (1285), below the 1275 SPX 1X1 Line from the 3/6/09 Low. This remains very bearish.

We have declined into the 8/4 Geometric CIT and 8/5 Solar CIT, suggesting a short term Low is at hand, but Bearish Momentum remains strong, so be careful as cycles suggests this decline is not quite over.