Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The 463 TD/22 Mo Cycle and the MC, Lows in?

The 463TD/22 month Cycle should provide downward pressure into February 16th 2010 Lows. Looking at the 3 previous declines of the 463 TD/22 Month Cycles, from Swing High to Swing Low was a 8-10% decline:

3/05/04H at 1163.23 - 8/13/04L at 1060.72 = 102.51 SP's or 9% decline

5/08/06H at 1326.70 - 6/14/06L at 1219.29 = 107.51 SP's or 8% decline
2/19/07H at 817.68 – 4/14/97L at 733.54 = 84.14 SP’s or 10% decline

An average 9% decline would suggest 1046 SPX, which was achieved by the 2/5 Lows at 1044.50 SPX.

The MC in CD was looking for a decline into 2/8 Lows. So far we have seen the expected 9% decline from the 22 month cycle into Friday 2/5 Geometric and Solar CIT Lows, which was 1 TD early. There is a real possibility that the 2/5 Low was the MC Low, even though there are other Cycles suggesting the MC in TD will be correct, ie the decline should last into 2/12-16 Lows, where the next SPX geometric CIT is. If 2/5 was the MC Low, we should see a retest of these Lows by 2/10-12 higher Lows and go sideways into Option Expiration week.

Intraday CITs for 2/10: 9.50, 12.05, 12.25 and 3.20 pm

1 comment:

TimeandCycles Intraday CITs said...

Intraday CITs for 2/10: 9.50, 12.05, 12.25 and 3.20 pm

Actual: 9.55H.

PC Ratios are very high at 1.27 and has been high the last few days, usually that is not good for the bearish outlook, be careful.

NDX also broke above its down channel and has back-kissed it sofar today.