Review 8/31 and Forecast 9/1

Review of today's Time and cycles:

"Daily CIT: 8/31-9/1 Intraday CIT times to watch for 8/31/09: Hourly CITs: 12.45-1.50 pm EDT 5 min CITs: 9.45, 12.50*** and 2.30 pm EDT. There is a triple hit at 12.50 pm, that is currently biased to be the Low of the day."

Actual Results:

The 9.45 CIT was the 9.55 Low of the day ( "1" on chart)
The 12.50 CIT was a retest Low at 12.40 pm ("2" on chart)
After some chopping around we rallied into the close.


Tomorrow 9/1/09: Important Times to watch: 1.05 and 3.25 pm Eastern.


Please note CITs normally work only 70% of the time, 30% of them don't.

It is best to use them with other tools in your arsenal.





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My Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email Questions to: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Daily and Intraday CIT times to watch

Today and tomorrow are daily CITs (Change in Trend) to watch and should be important. A CIT could be a High or a Low.

Daily CIT: 8/31-9/1

Intraday CIT times to watch for 8/31/09:

Hourly CITs: 12.45-1.50 pm EDT

5 min CITs: 9.45, 12.50*** and 2.30 pm EDT.

There is a triple hit at 12.50 pm, that is currently biased to be the Low of the day.




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My Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email Questions to: timeandcycles@gmail.com

The Master Cycle (MC) performance

The Master Cycle (MC) performance since the 3/6/09 lows is shown as the green swing lines on the SPX chart. All the swing High and Low dates are in the archives of the T&C Daily Email for subs and some of them are also on this blog.


Recently the MC was looking for an 8/13 High and a retest High on Monday 8/17. We did see the 8/13 High and the retest came at the close of Friday 8/14. The MC then called for a decline into 8/19 Low, which was a retest Low with the 8/17 Low and a rally into 8/25 High, which we got. Remember the MC is a Time Cycle and does not always dictate Price magnitude. We saw higher Highs into 8/25 High.

From the 3/6/09 Low, which the MC suggested was a Major Low (and predicted in advance on this blog), you will notice some dates are off by 1,2 TD and we did have one inversion on the 6/11 Low, which was a 6/11 High, but overall it has been pretty impressive.

But, can you make some real money with this forecast? If you were to follow this forecast alone, there is the possibility of some huge profits, but you would need to ignore all the other short term indicators, timing methods and cycles that may bring you astray. Sometimes less is a whole lot more.



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When Price, Time and Cycles meet

When Price, Time and Cycles meet, they give a 90-95% chance of an important Change in Trend (CIT).

8/13-17/09 should be an important swing High. Here is why.

Price: There are 3 Price targets. The broken wedge TL Resistances (back-kiss) on 8/13 are at 1020 and 1028-32 SPX, the latter is also Fibonacci Resistance. Major Resistance at 1053.50-1055.50 SPX, which are 70.7% and 50% retraces.

Time: The next thing I look at are my proprietary CIT Timing points. I have found over the years that they are only a few timing methods that actually work precisely enough to be useful. Most of the daily CITs that I use are often exact to the day, although at times, they could be off by 1 Trading Day. There are 2 CIT Times, one is Thursday, 8/13 and a double "hit" on Monday 8/17. Furthermore, there is a reliable Astro-based CITs that are due on Friday 8/14: 8/14 is a Sun opposite Jupiter and the Midpoint of Jupiter Retrograde and Jupiter Direct.

Cycles: There is a long term fixed 8/16 week Cycle due this week and we have rallied into it. I have already discussed the proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that suggests we make a Major 8/13 High and 8/17 Highs of the Month. My conclusion can only be that we are making a Major High in the next couple of days due to the confluence of Price, Time and Cycles.

This will be my last post for quite a while as I am already supposed to be on vacation.

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My Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

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Ontrack, but fed awaits

I am on vacation, but thought this was important enough to post now.

The MC was expecting a higher Low on 8/11 with the 8/6 Low, we got that, although it was more like a retest Low.

Today and tomorrow, 8/12 and 8/13 are expected to be solid days UP. 8/13 is expected to be the High of the Month, 8/17 is a lower High, get ready for that!

As mentioned before, there is also a seasonal tendency for the market to rally into 2pm of FOMC days, which it is doing right now.

Ofcourse the FED's 2pm decision is always a gamble as to direction and it is best to stand aside then and see what happens, but the MC suggests we close positive today.

Wedge Update

5 min SPX, since the wedge APEX and CIT at 2.15 pm Low of the day at 992 SPX yesterday

MC Update

Unemployment numbers was bullish for the markets.

The Bears are getting seriously whipped.

The Master Cycle (MC) was suggesting that after a short term 8/5 Low, the next day should Gap up, that day is today, as 8/6 was the Low (+1 TD).

The MC suggests we will close off our Highs today, but still positive.

Short term Highs are not quite in yet.


Longer term, the MC is foremost a Time Cycle, ie it predicts future Highs and Lows and does not always indicate PRICE Magnitude, so it really can not guarantee how much lower of higher we go, but IF the MC Price pattern were to believed, we should be generally higher into EOY




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Intraday expectations for 8/6/09

From last night's email and posted at: http://timeandcycles.com/board/viewtopic.php?f=39&t=1245

"This suggests today’s Lows will be retested tomorrow (8/6). There is an Apex of the wedge on the 5 min chart at 2.35 pm+/- tomorrow that ideally should be the Low.

The odds are tomorrow is expected to retest today’s Lows, either at the midday Low or at the 2.15 –35 CIT Low."

Intraday 5 min CIT Times 08/06/09: 10.35-11.40 Hourly APEX, 11.45, 12.10, 1.00, 2.15, 2.35+/- Apex and 4.15 pm EDT"

Actual: The 5 min Apex arrived at the 2.10 CIT Low of the day.

The Master Cycle (MC) Detailed Cycle

Summary from last night's T&C email:

The MC was looking for a 7/29 Low (1) and expected a "continued rally through 8/4 High (2)" and if exact see a 1 day pullback into an 8/5 Low (3) and a Gap UP (on 8/6) (we are currently down -3.5 SP's) and rally in a choppy fashion."


With Top Pickers all around, the MC suggests this rally phase is not quite over.

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NDX weekly Chart

The weekly NDX continuous Chart has a Cluster of TL and 50% Resistance at 1635-45.

If the markets can overcome this 1645 area, it would be very bullish longer Term, but for now it is a Brick wall MOB resistance.

The red DTL comes in at the 1645 area and is from the All time High and has been Major Resistance at the 10/31/07 Major High as well as the 6/5 and 8/15/08 Highs.





Please note: This blog is best viewed using FireFox, the archives and much more (on the leftside) are not showing in other browsers.

Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com