Here comes Santa Clause..

Here comes Santa Clause..

The Lows are in on 11/26/07 completing the large C wave down and it is looking more and more very bullish, with an impulsive move up from 11/26 lows, I don't see any lower Lows out there. We also have a wedge Break, which is very bullish.

We are headed to 1490 very fast today with EOM window dressing and people wanting to enjoy the Santa Clause Rally to usher in a Happy Xmas atmosphere next month and what might even shock and awe the Bears is when we break through that old Trapdoor to Hell @1490 SPX and make new All Time Highs.

Shorter Term, There are 3 "longer term" CITs due today, 11/30, on the hourly they are clustering in the 1st couple of hours in the morning, on the 5minute chart they are spread out during the day, a short term High is likely today.



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11/26L, 11/29H

Today should be Gap and Go Day and a close near it's highs.

Tomorrow also. I am expecting 2,3 strong Up days.

The 11/26L came as mentioned in private email and on the yahoo group:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/timeandcycles/

Next is 11/29H, according to my Series of Cycles

Then another decline into the 1st week of December.

The longer term view

There are several versions of the 4 year cycle, but the simple view (kiss) is seen on the longer term monthly SPX chart (click to enlarge). The 4 year/48 Mo Cycle is as follows: 8/82L - 9/86L, 10/90L, 12/94L, 10/98L, 10/02L and 6/14/06 Low @ 1219.29 SPX.

From the 6/14/06 Major Low, we made an bullish move to the 7/16/07 High, which started a large ABC correction down.

The large ABC down Update (Please refer to the 11/9/07 post & chart)

The market is in a devastating C wave decline and is gripping everyone with lots of Fear.

Below is a summary of my take on it:

1. We are in a Large ABC down (see my 11/9 post for the chart). The market is retesting the 8/16/07 Lows 1370-1416 SPX (8/16 H/L large intraday range ) in a C wave decline of a n ABC down (see chart) , where A wave = 8/16 Lows, B wave = 10/11 Highs and C wave is currently in progress. The channel on the chart is targeting the 1410 SPX area.
2. Once this C wave ends, we should see a strong rally into Jan-Feb 08 to retest the recent Highs.
3.There is Major support at 1405-1410 SPX Daily and weekly SPX Channel, that should be the initial target for the current C wave decline, although technically we can retest the lower end of the 8/16 Low @ 1370 SPX.
4. 1411 SPX is also the last Gap to get filled on the downside.
5.The long term uptrend channel from 3/12/03L, currently at 1405-1410 SPX should not be violated on a weekly basis or we will see much lower prices.
7. Shorter term Cycles suggests the current C wave decline completes by the 1st week of Dec 07.
8. We could also be in a larger ABC, where the 1st week of Dec Low is only an A wave Low, to be followed by a B wave rally into Jan/Feb 08 High and a final C wave decline into April 08 Lows.

The 11/19/07 Low

I have a double daily CIT for today, 11/19 and a triple hourly Time Cluster intraday. It should be an important Low.

Fwiw, My last daily CIT cluster was the 11/12 Low.

I also have some intra day Time and price clusters to watch closely.

The 11/12/07 Low

The 11/12/07 Low has alot going for it. (This info is shared from the subs updates)

1. The inverted main series had a 11/1(10/31H) and a potential 11/12 Low
2. The 20-22 TD Cycle was due 11/12
3. Ve Latitude 4.58 + 8/16/07L = 11/9 (+1 TD= 11/12), Last Venus Latitude was 10/22 Low.
4. Me Helio Latitude 88 CD + 8/16/07L = 11/12/07 Low
5. Double hourly CIT due Close 11/12 - Open 11/13, arrived on 11/12@Close Low
6. 11/12 is within the SOI (Sphere of influence) of Roy's SC due 11/15 (F20 3/22/01 Low)
7. 11/12 is within 1 TD from the 11/9/07 Mahalaksmi Major historic Lunar Anniversary Lows. ie 11/9/07L = 10/29/29L = 10/20/87L = 10/28/97L = same Lunar Date = same Mahalaksmi, Goddess of wealth Day.
8. The 56 hour (8TD) Cycle was due 11/12/07
9. The 2.5 week cycle from the 10/22-24 Low (14-16 TD), bottomed on 11/12 Low.
10. Our T&C Group had a Major timing Cluster due anytime this OE week, centered on 11/14.
11. ITD Delta Low was due 11/14 +/-
12. Markets were extremely oversold at historic levels, there were also signs of selling exhaustion.
12. There was finally some Big fund buying on 11/13, which is a statistically bullish sign for the next few days, weeks and months.
11. This is a normal retest of the 8/16/07 4.5 Year Cycle Low, creating a double bottom with 8/16/07 Low
12. We broke above the downtrend channel since the 10/31 High and we are having follow through today, which is bullish.

Major Resistance lies at the 1490-92 SPX area and if broken confirms the decline to be a corrective ABC down and also the new bullish trend. I still have 11/15 and 11/19 daily CITs to watch closely. A retest of the 11/12 Lows is likely.

The 11/12 Low could have been the Low and ANY move above 1492 SPX confirms the Lows are in.

ABC Down

The decline is looking impulsive, which means we are in a wave 4 bounce now, completing perhaps in the next couple of days.

Overal, we are in a final ABC wave down, where 8/16 Low = A wave, 10/11 High = B wave and we are now in a C wave to retest the 8/16 lows.

If we can rally above the downtrend Channel and wave (1) low, currently at 1490 SPX, which is now Key resistance to overcome, then we had a ZigZag (535) down and we are headed to new Highs afterwards.

Intraday Timing for 11/5/07

Note: the information below is complimentary from today's T&C daily Service

Intraday CITs sofar: Open LOD, 10.20 Low, 11.50-12 High. Remaining CITs: 12.35, 12.55*, 2.20, 3.15-3.20* EST. Watch the 12.35 and 12.55 CITs for clues: If a Low, we should rally into the close. if a High, we should sell off into the last hour. Markets remains on track for a 11/6 Lows. Notes on Trading the CITs: 1. CIT (= Change in Trend) Times could be either Highs or Lows. If the markets are rallying into the CIT Time frame, it will be a High. If the markets are declining into the CIT Time Frame, it will be a Low. 2. Intraday Time CIT's are most of the times exact or off by +/- 5, seldom +/-10 minutes to remain valid. 3. CIT's don't work well when manipulation is more likely, like in thin markets, eg before holidays (last week) or in OE week or when a FED intervention is obvious and even announced. 4. Major Price Support and Resistance (SR) also causes CIT's, that's the reason why when Price CIT and Time CITs meet, the probability increases to 90% for a CIT to occur. 5. CIT's don't have to occur at extreme Highs or Lows, they could occur in an uptrend. 6. Not all CITs work, naturally we expect all of them to work, especially if they have worked incredibly well in the past. They work 70-80% of the time, 20% of them don't, especially when the markets go SU or SD. Be patient, take a position, only if a CIT is clear for you. 7. Always keep a 3 point stop under the CIT time, if going Long or a 3 point stop above, if going short. That's the point where the CIT should be wrong in general. If you're in 3-5 SP point profit, move your stop to Break Even (BE). 8. Trade the CITs, not the biases or opinions, etc., just watch what the market is actually doing at the CIT. 9. Be patient, you don't have to trade all CITs, overtime, there will be many more good CITs to trade. 10. The trend is your friend, one possible strategy in daytrading is to only trade with the trend, ie. When the general trend is UP, look to trade those CITs that are Lows. This is best done in Strong Up trending Markets. When the general trend is DOWN, look to trade those CITs that are Highs. This is best done in strong down trending Markets. 11. It's best to observe first how the CITs work before using them, so you get a feel for them. It's best to use them as an additional tool in your arsenal of intraday tools in your toolbox. They should not be used as a stand alone tool, but rather in conjunction with your own intraday buy and sell signals.

10/31High, 11/6 Low

The 10/31-11/1 CIT was a direct hit (see previous post) with a 10/31 High with a 60+ SP decline right afterwards.

The hourly SPX (click on chart to enlarge) has 1st support at the 10/22-24 lows @1489.56 SPX, after that it has key fork support at the 1480 SPX area, right at the Top of wave 1 Support @ 1479.40 SPX, where also the 200 DMA@1479.50 SPX is.

Many on our Time and Cycles Yahoo group (http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/TimeandCycles/) correctly called for this 10/31 High.

We are approaching my next daily CIT, due on 11/6 +/-1, ideally a LOW @ 1480-95 SPX which is Key support area. We should see new All Time Highs after this Low.