Review and 7/21 hourly CIT near the close

Review of the recent posted Cycle and CITs on my T&C blog:

1. The Friday 6/18 daily and hourly CIT near the close was the Monday 6/21 High at the open Major High.
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/06/spx-right-at-critical-down-channel.html

2. The 6/29 post was looking for a Low, esp around the 7/1 Squared date: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/06/update-5.html

3. The 7/13 Cycle High was pinpointed here: 
 http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/07/short-term-high-today.html

4. Recently I was looking for a 7/19 CIT Low, which was a 7/20 Cycle Low at the Open.

The 5 min CIT at 2.55 pm and Hourly CIT at 2.55-4.00 pm on 7/21 was the 2.55 Low of the day 7/21 (see hourly chart).

Short term high today?

Markets rallied right into my Daily and hourly CIT at 10-35- 11.40 am at the 11.40 High of the day at 1097.07 SPX, right at double TL resistance and right at Maximum Open Interest at 1100 SPX, but is barely retreating so far. 


Bullish momentum remains strong. Let's see what happens in the last hour.

Update 5

The 2.55 Hour CIT is +/-1 hour and we are in the window for a Major Low and reversal higher, 3.35 pm may be the LOD, so be alert.

Let's not try to get too cute trying to figure out the exact Low. 

We are in the window for the Low to occur.

SPX right at critical down channel resistance

SPX right at critical down channel resistance. 

There is a triple cluster geometric CIT at 6/18-21 and a Solar CIT on 6/22. 

There is also a Sun Jupiter square early am 6/23 that should be watched closely. 6/21-22 should be an important Turn. 

For today 6/18, there is a double hourly CIT at 2.55-4.00 pm. 

Trapdoor to Heaven or Hell

The NDX has been in a Triangle formation ( large trading range) since the 5/6 Flash Crash low.  The Apex is on 7/2/10.

   

The Trapdoor to Heaven is any solid close above 1900 NDX and 1105 for the SPX.

The Trapdoor to Hell is any solid close below the 5/6 Low at 1752 and 1040 SPX.

The triangle is narrowing, so we should break one way or the other soon. 

Any break of this triangle will cause a large swift move.

The bearish view and intraday Times for 5/20

As today may be an important day, based on cycles, etc. perhaps this could be useful to some:

Intraday 5 min CITs (Change in Trend): 10.20-25, 11.30*, 11.40-12.45 hourly (iffy, minor), 12.20, 1.25*, 2.20, 2.45* pm EDT.

2 min CITs (same as above, but more exact): 10.20, 10.28, 11.36, 12.12, 1.16*, 2.50* pm EDT

Speculative biases: 10.20-25H, 11.30L, 12.20H, 1.16-25L*, 2.45-50* HOD 
(HOD = High of the day, if market is weak). 

Generally there is an Up bias for today, but watch the 2.45-50 CIT for an early High and a sharp drop into 5/21 in the 1st hour Low at the 313 cycle. (click on chart to enlarge)

* = Important

Dollar and Euro's

Dollar is going parabolic, nearing Resistance. 
The next 112 is due in Sep 2010.

 









Euro is piercing its down channel.

Euro Daily CITs: 5/25, 7/16.
Euro weekly CIT: 8/6 week, 11/22 week

Crash ahead?

Crash ahead?  First of all, the 635 TD Cycle ( click on chart to enlarge) suggests an intermediate bottom was made on 5/6/10. Of course we could see a retest of the recent Low.

 

The following research below, I first did right after the 5/6 Crash (and posted to subs) says that a Crash after the 5/6/10 Crash is highly unlikely.

Historically, the 5/06/10 Crash week was a rare event. We have not seen this kind of large Price decline since the 10/10/08 week, almost 1 ½ years ago and before that the 9/21/01 week and 4/14/00 Crash week, more than a Decade ago!

Previous comparable Crash weeks:

1. 10/20/87 Crash week had a   66.23 SP range, 23% decline

1. 04/14/00 Crash week had a 187.79 SP range, 12% decline

2. 09/21/01 Crash week had a 145.00 SP range, 13% decline

3. 10/10/08 Crash week had a 257.76 SP range, 23% decline

4. 05/06/10 Crash week had a 139.34 SP range, 12% decline

Here is some interesting statistics, 1^st mentioned on the evening of 5/6/10:

4/14/00 Crash week, 9/21/01 crash week and 5/6/10 Crash week all saw a 12% decline and:

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L =   525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6

04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low

04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low

04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low

04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD!  ie exactly 7 times the 4/24/00 Crash Low -9/21/01 Crash Low = the 5/6/10 Crash Low! This perfection suggests the Low is already in on 5/6th crash decline Low.  (Note: We have seen a strong rally ever since)

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Are the Lows in already?

I mentioned in a proprietary Crash Research to T&C Email Members, there is solid evidence that the Lows are already in and we should see choppiness and a retest higher Low in the coming days, before we head higher into OE week. IF we rally into the 5/11 Major CIT instead, it will be a High or Vice Versa.

For Monday, there is now a double CIT at 11.56 am and an Apex of the triangle at 12.52 pm tomorrow. Also watch the 10.35-11.40 hourly CIT and other 5 min CITs: 1.00-05, 1.55, 2.40 pm for clues. We are in a wave 3 or C rally up.

Who called this past week's decline?

There were about 10 people that predicted and posted in advance, the 4/26 High and this past week's severe decline. We who have been in this business long enough, knows this is NOT an easy task to do.  Here is just one example below of Tom Mahoney's chart he posted weeks before. It is a work of Art and Simplicity.

http://csiwallstreet.com

Intraday Times and Cycles

General trend is still down into 5/11 Major Lows. We are deeply oversold, so we should see short term rallies here and there intraday,

The 10.20 CIT was the 10.28 Low.

Other CITs are: 12.00, 12.15, 1.35 pm

On the 2min chart they are: 11.52, 12.16, 12.26, 1.38 pm.

12 reasons for a 5/11/10 Major Time and Cycle Cluster Low

5/11/10 is now clustering in a big big way, it is the next Major Time and Cycle Cluster Low:

1. The next Solar CIT is on 5/11.

2. The triple Geometric CIT is on 5/11.

3. The Apex of the NDX triangle is on 5/11.

4.  The next Symmetry Point Cycle CIT is on 5/11.

5. The Master Cycle has a 5/12 Low. 

6. The next 120 TD Cycle is on 5/11.

7. The next NDX 66/132 wk cycle is due on the 5/11 wk (see previous post)

8. The 18 TD and 456 hourly correction cycles has a 5/11 Low.

9. WBOE = Wednesday/Week before Option Expiration 5/11 wk

10. Double Hourly CITs are due on 5/10

11. Mercury goes Direct is on 5/11 and Jupiter squares the Galatic centre on 5/12

12. New Moon -2 (associated with past panics) = 5/11/10



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When is the next Major Low?

 The NDX 66 week and many other Cycles suggests next week we should see an important Low