Raj Times and Cycles: August 2024

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Review Forecast of the August Month

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Forecast from 8/7 Raj T&C Daily Email: "8/5L is an A of (C) wave Low. We are now in a B of (C) wave volatile rally phase, into OE week+/-. We should then see a C of (C) wave decline afterwards to complete the decline. The daily trends are lower into mid to late August Lows, but expect sharp counter trend rallies along the way.

Forecast from 8/10 Raj T&C Weekend Email: "From the 8/5 Solar & 8/6 Geo time CIT 8/5L, we have see. The 8/5 Solar and 8/6 Geo time CIT was an 8/5L, which was an A of (C) wave Low. We are now in a B of (C) wave volatile rally phase, into Option Expiration (OE) week+/-. We should then see a C of (C) wave decline afterwards to complete the decline. The bias is a choppy volatile OE week: 8/12-13H, 8/13-14L, 8/15-16H"

Actual: From 8/5L, we did see a rally into OE week and into 8/16th, as expected, but the rally was stronger than projected and we did see volatility along the way, but they were intraday pullbacks only and we ended up being Up into OE week into Friday 8/16th.

We rallied into 8/16 as expected, but as the rally was stronger than expected, the forecast was updated 2 days later, on 8/20 to be more bullish (where the projected C wave decline Scenario was canceled):

Forecast updated on Tuesday 8/20 Raj T&C Daily Email: "As we rallied above the 8/1H major swing High, all trends turned back Up, the Elliott wave Scenario had to be updated that the 8/5L was a completed ABC decline. The path has become more bullish. All eyes are now on the Fed’s meeting at Jackson Hole Friday 8/23. As a result, the markets can go sideways to higher into Friday 8/23 Geo and Fed CIT High, before we see a brief retrace into Tesla's 8/27-28 Lows."

Tesla's 206 TD Cycle of Lows due 8/28/24 Low+/-1

Actual: We made a Monday 8/26H (1 TD later) and declined into today's 8/28 Low so far.

What's next?: Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings after the close today - Wednesday 8/28, the outcome is pure speculation and even a gamble, so it is better to TMAR and stand aside. We are still expecting Tesla's 8/28L+/-1 TD to bottom the markets and then another rally phase.

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Monday, August 5, 2024

The roller Coaster ride is just beginning...

From my last public post from 7/14/24: "7/13 was an important Change in Trend in World affairs with the shot heard around the world"

From 7/17/24 Newsletter: "One dominant cycle suggests a mid July Highs and a sharp break into August cycle of Lows"

From 7/19/24 Weekend Email: "There is one historic cycle that suggests the decline starts in earnest from next week, which we will be watching closely.

Actual: SPX indices made a 7/15-16/24 swing High, (1-2 TD later from the 7/13 weekend CIT), while the Bubble Leader, NVidia and Tesla made a 7/11/24 swing High and has since declined sharply.

What's next?: The roller Coaster ride is just beginning...