Raj T&C Review and Forecast and Confluence with other markets

http://safehaven.com/article/40446/raj-tc-review-and-forecast-and-confluence-with-other-markets

In my last post, I was looking for a 2/5 Low+/-1.

Actual: we made a 2/8 Low, 1 day later.

From the 2/8 evening Raj T&C Daily Email: “The updated cycle bias is this week sees a choppy week, with a 2/8L, 2/10H and 2/12-16 Low at the 2/12 Geo and 2/14 Solar weekend CIT and at the next 176-77 TD Cycle due 2/12. 

Actual: We saw a choppy week, with a 2/8 Low, 2/10 High and so far we saw 2/11 lower lows, 1 day earlier.

The next Time and Cycle Cluster is on 2/12-14

Times to Watch:

1. Friday 2/12 Geo CIT & Sunday 2/14 Solar CIT

Cycles to watch:

1. The 176.5 Trading Day (TD) Cycle: 10/21/09H-173-7/1/10L-178-3/16/11L-177-11/25/11L-172-8/2/12L-177-4/18/13L-178-12/31/13H-181-9/19/14H—176- 6/03/15H—176-Friday 2/12/16.

2. The 90 CD Cycle: 5/20/15H-8/18/15H-11/16/15L- Sunday 2/14/16

What’s Next: We make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.

February 2016 SPX Confluence with  Crude Oil and Interest Rates

The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016 +/-1 month.

The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016 +/- 1 month.

The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 2016 week.

Conclusion: There is a confluence in several markets for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.

Intraday Time and Cycles for Feb 10, 2016

Intraday 5 min SPX CITs 2/10: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern, all +/-5-10 minutes

Intraday Cycle 2/10: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H Eastern, all +/- 30 minutes. 

Bias is we see a Bullish Up day today and if by Noon we are higher than the 1st hour High, we have an 80% chance we see a last hour highest High. Tomorrow is biased lower.


11.00 am Eastern Update:

Good Morning,

All eyes are on Janet yellin's semiannual   HUMPHREY HAWKINS  testimony today and tomorrow since 10.00 am.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar

Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour 10.30 High, midday High and last hour High.

We gapped higher to a 10.35H, above the up channel and 1873 SPX resistance and have since retraced to 1863 SPX.

If we see a higher Midday High, above 1881.60 SPX, it indicates strength and we will have a (normal) 80% chance we see a last hour Highest High.

If we see a lower Midday High, below 1881.60 SPX, it indicates weakness and suggests we see a last hour lowest High and lower Low.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 2/10/16: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H, 11.10L

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle high at the 10.30 time CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 12.20 cycle High at the 12.55 time CIT, decline to a 2.00 cycle Low at the 2.35 time CIT, rally to a 3.40 High+/-30.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1866.50 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1861.50 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

2.30 pm Update: Update 2

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 2/10/16: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern

Actual: 10.35H, 1.05H

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H, 11.40L, 1.05H, 1.55L

The markets have been choppy since the 1st hour High, and still in an Up wave and we should still see a last hour High.

Markets are staying within the 5 minute sideways to up channel, with resistance at 1873 SPX and 1887 SPX

Tomorrow is an Inversion day, with a 79% chance we see a 1st hour Low and a 21% chance we invert to a 1st hour High.

Yellin also speaking tomorrow should have an influence.

Raj Time and Cycle Review & Forecast

http://safehaven.com/article/40374/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

Review: In my January 22 blog post, I said: “If History is any guidance, we should see a major crash Low between 1/20 and 1/26. There are some indications that 1/20/16 was that major Flash Crash Cycle Low, but we need to close solidly above the steep down channel to confirm that.”

Actual: We closed above that steep down channel on 1/22, which confirmed 1/20/16 as the major mini crash Low.

From the 1/20/16 Raj T&C Email: “The current cycle bias is from a 1/19L, we rally to a 1/22H and then decline into 1/27 lower Lows.

Actual: We made a 1/20L, 1 day later, rallied to a 1/22H (#1 on chart) and decline into a 1/27L (#2 on chart)

From the 1/25 Raj T&C weekend Email: “The cycle bias is we made a 1/22H at the 1/22-23 CD to TD, Square, Over flight CIT, then decline into 1/27 Solar and T&C Cluster Lows, which should be a higher Low. From there we rally into a 2/2 High and then decline into 2/5 Low.

Actual: From the 1/27 Low, we rallied into 2/1 High (#3), 1 day earlier, and we saw a decline into 2/5 Low (#4) as expected.

What’s Next: We make a 2/5 Low+/-1 and see another rally phase.