Thursday, October 3, 2013

We are close to a Major Low

http://www.safehaven.com/article/31335/we-are-close-to-a-major-low

From my last 9/17 public blog post:”We should rally into a 9/18 Solar CIT High+/-1 and see a decline into the next Time and Cycle cluster Low”

Two forecasts were made in the last few weeks:

Forecast 1: From the 9/18 Daily Email: “We are extremely overbought and we should see a solid 30-50 SP pullback into the 9/24 T&C Cluster CIT Low.”

Actual: The 9/18 Solar time CIT (Change in Trend) was the 9/19 High near the open (Point “A” on the chart below) Swing traders were told to short and keep the stop at the 9/19 High, we then declined 42.25 SP’s into 9/25 Lows (Point “B” on the chart). Here were the various reasons for the 9/19H and 9/25L:

1. The 9/18 Solar CIT was the 9/19 High near the Open.
2. There was a 9/23 Long term CIT, which was the 9/19H, 2 TD earlier.
3. The 472-75 CD Cycle was the 9/19/13H:
7/15/08L-475-11/2/09L-473-2/18/11H-472-6/4/12L-472-9/19/13H.
4. The 186 TD Cycle arrived at the 9/19H as well.
5. The 9/24 geometric Time CIT was the 9/25 Low.


Forecast 2: From the 9/27 Daily Email: “There is one Bear Cycle that suggests a 9/26 High, then sharply lower into 10/4-7 Lows. The markets are getting spooked by another Government shutdown by 10/1/13 and could see a sharper sell-off. The ideal target for this decline is the Make or Break 11/16/12L – 6/24/13L Uptrend channel at 1665 SPX or the 1657 SPX H&S Target”

From the 9/28-30 Weekend Email: “There is an 10/1-2 Time CIT, even though the Bear cycle above says nothing about the 10/1-2 Time CIT date, the bias is we make a 9/30 lower Low and see a sharp rally into an 10/1-2 High, before we turn south once again into 10/4-7 Lows. The SP Cycle has an 10/1 CIT. The 23 TD cycle is next due on 10/1. There is a 10/1 geometric and 10/2 Solar CIT”

Actual: The markets saw the 9/26 High at 1703.85 SPX (Point “C” on chart above), which was the 9/25 Solar time CIT High and where subscribers went short. We saw a sharp 29 SP decline into the 9/30 Low (Point “D”), saw a brief sharp 22 SP rally into 10/1 High at the close (Point “E”). The SP Cycle 10/1 CIT, The 23 TD cycle on 10/1, the 10/1 geometric and the 10/2 Solar CIT were all the 10/1 High. We then reversed lower into today, declining 30+ SP’s from the 9/26H so far. Despite the shutdown news driven market, the Bear cycle that saw the 9/26 High and then sharp decline into 10/5 Lows has been accurate so far and highly profitable for our swing traders who went short at the 9/26 Highs.



What’s next?: We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don’t have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT. 

This is my last public post for quite some time as the coming weeks should be a wonder to behold.

38 comments:

Unknown said...

Without giving away the store, just why should the next weeks be a wonder to behold? I dont recall any exceptions predictions...?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

It just means that the next few weeks will make some strong powerful moves.

The 10/4 cycle Low is +/- 1, so it could also have arrived on 10/3 Low at 1670 SPX, which was close enough to the 1665 SPX Trend line support and if we see a last hour high Friday, then Monday is biased to be Higher and Vice versa.

jj914 said...

S&P close above 1692 is bullish for a retest of recent highs. We should see 2% to 4% rally when our Washington Politicians raise the debt ceiling. But October is usually full of surprises

wiseman said...

I hope I make money in OCT!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Lol, I hope so for you wiseman.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks for your analysis jj914.

Trendtrader said...

"I hope I make money in OCT!"
hi wise,
hope is not the correct word. Trust is better.
Trust in You and your skills that is and money come to you.
There is nothing to laugh...

wiseman said...

thank you trend

TRADERGURL said...

Low is in? We had 1657 low today

Raj Time and Cycles said...

and at the 2.20 pm Apex of the broken wedge Trendlines today

wiseman said...

raj does that mean the low is not in with the apex line be broken?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The path of least resistance is down

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Wiseman, technically, we are 1 TD later than the projected 10/7 Low, which is allowed.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Nice Try, but no cigar, looks like the decline will continue.

wiseman said...

seem like we are making the low going into rebound mode but we will see

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The Cycle that perfectly called the 9/26H and decline 10/7L is not working anymore as we were supposed to rally from the latest after the 10/8L.

Not a big problem though as my next time Solar CIT and next T&C cluster will determine the next direction.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The cycle that saw the 9/26H and sharp decline into 10/7L was 2 TD off, but that is not acceptable in my work.

Nevertheless, we are now in the expected powerful rally phase.

Suren said...

If we see another lower low in late Oct. (lower than SPX 1648), do you still call the Oct. 9 intra-day low as a "Major Low?"

Trendtrader said...

curious it should be go deeper than this.

congratulation,
but i think is too soon.
flash crash ahead?
regards

Ron Jamison said...

Raj, have a turn coming on Oct 18 just in time with the political bs which should take us down from either all time highs from 1730-1750 if all goes as anticipated.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren, it is only a "major Low" relative to the subsequent rally afterwards.

Thanks Ron, lets' see what happens on your 10/18 date.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Stan Harley has a major secondary 10/18 High as well, 377, 233 and 144 hours from previous Highs and Lows.

mommy and three said...

Raj, do you see any potential for a stock market crash of large degree occurring on or near Oct 18?

Sandiawan Lie said...

Hi Raj,I think the existence of cycles of Fullmoon + eclipse in 18/10, the rally will continue until the date 28/10, how do you think Raj? is it possible? tq

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Mommy and Sandiawan,anything is possible, but all will depend on the latest shutdown news

Sandiawan Lie said...

How do your predictions Raj? can you tell us?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Sandiawan Lie, through the Divine Grace and lots of research, I have found some Time and Cycles that actually work.

Sandiawan Lie said...

Amen, may you always be blessed Raj, I really hope you can tell your prediction, because I strongly believe with your predictions. for it I really hope you can give a little prediction you. tq Raj.God bless U

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thank you Sandiawan Lie,

If you plan to trade, I would suggest trying the subscription services, it should pay for itself over time.

Bets of luck,

Raj

AGoldhamster said...

First your service is pretty expensive (12 x 130 = 1560/year) and second there is no trial month to see what I get for that high price.

Pretty tough to become a subscriber under such conditions. That way there is no other way than first to follow here on the site for a year or so - if I want to know what I get for that (guess me)cat in the bag.

Sorry but in my book that is not very customer friendly. But of course it's your blog and your choice with whom and under which conditions to share what you think is to come.

For me price too high - take i.e. McHugh who also offers an excellent service - but for just 89$ for 9 months or so.

With 130$ you are definitely in the upper class - and from upper class I'm without exception used to at least get a chance to check what I git.

But again your blog.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

AG, It is all a matter of having the right perspective.

The one year($1320)subscription comes out to be $110/Month, and not what you are quoting. That amounts to only $3.67/Day and even the one month at $140 = $4.67/Day. $140/Mo is less than 3 Emini SP point gain (at $50/SP)and in any of the last 3 public posted trades on this blog, you should have made atleast 30 SP's X $50 (if you traded the Emini SP) = $1500 profit. That covers the expense of the entire year just in only one trade, is that worth it?
My clients certainly think it is and are happy with it, but you will have to be the judge of that.

I have many free predictions on this blog and will continue to do so over time.

Best of Luck.

Suren said...

Raj,

Lowry reports track the number of stocks hitting 52-week high and how it starts to vanes when the markets start to make a top. Do you take into account this fact with your cycle analysis to validate a buy or sell signal?

Suren

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren,

That is always good info to know.

I always try to take into account any useful info available to me at the time.

Atharva said...

Dear Raj

Greetings!!!

Following your blog for last 6 months, must say that your analysis is fantabulous. and Do you cover any other market than USA. I would be glad to know if you cover Indian market. If you not would you be interested.

Best Regards

Atharva

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Atharva,

I don't find the time to do other stock markets.



mommy and three said...

Raj, hope you can answer are you expecting a turn down in the market on Nov 1 or 3? Major turn down?

mommy and three said...

Raj, are you expecting Nov 1-3 to be a MAJOR TOP?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

mommy and three, I am watching my proprietary CITs to see if it gives a reversal lower to tell me if a High is in place.

Until then all trends are up and all the premature shorts and put buyers are getting killed here.

Best of Luck.