Thursday, July 11, 2013

Review & Forecast

Review of the last few weeks and forecast.

1. Forecast made on 6/22/13 Swing cycle weekend Summary: 6/21L, higher into 6/27H, 7/3L

Actual: Monday 6/24 Low, 6/27 High, chop into 7/3 Low

All intermediate declines since the October 4 2011 Low has been mostly averaging 20 TD and at times 43 TD and 131-156 SP’s and 9-11% declines (see chart).  From the 5/22/13 High, we have seen a 126.85 SP/8% decline in 22 TD into 6/24L. This was one of the reasons we expected the 6/21-24 Low.

2. Forecast made on 7/1/13 Swing cycle Summary: 7/3-5L, rally into 7/12 Medium term Geometric and Solar CIT.

Actual: 7/3 Low, rally into 7/11 High so far.

What's next:
Markets unfolded pretty much as expected. We had an A=C = 1664.30 SPX target, which has now been exceeded. We should see a rally into the 1st Medium term CIT due on 7/12, which is also a Solar CIT. Once the High is in, we  should see some pullback, then we should see higher Highs into the 2nd Medium term geometric CI


qichengm said...

Hi Raj, you do not expact a crash in July 2013 anymore ? Thanks.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

qichengm, No the one crash cycle that could have been active, quickly evaporated.

dc-BEAR said...

Raj, very kind for sharing your insights.

Friends, no one really knows what tomorrow holds...aside from the Lord...and QE greed will continue to confuse and blind for the foreseeable future. Always in motion the future is, nothing is as it seems, and cycles will continue to change with each turn of uncle Ben's mega-printing machine.

There are two paths you can go by...but a man's got to know his please remember, cash is also a position.

Best to your trades!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Here is the simple crash cycle that inverted:

Crash Cycle (Low probability) the 1987 Analog suggests a crash in July 2013.
1. 08/25/87H = 05/22/13H
2. 09/08/87L = 06/06/13L (+1)
3. 09/14/87H = 06/10/13H (-1)
4. 09/22/87L = 06/19/13L => Inverted 6/18H (-1)
5. 10/05/87H = 07/02/13H => Inverted 7/3L (+1)
6. 10/20/87L = 07/17/13L = Inverted = 7/16H?

wiseman said...

we are seeing higher highs

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Wiseman, yes, We have been in a strong blow off Bullmarket since the 7/3 Lows.
In run away Stuck up markets, not all Time CIT may work due to blow off nature of the markets.

I mentioned we may see only a minor pullback before we saw higher Highs into my next major turning point, which is matched my the next major Cycle High.

Marketguy said...

should've stuck with your original call of that early June low being a MAJOR low Raj, POMO rules forever I guess (banana republic we've become).