Review & Forecast: July Crash?

http://www.safehaven.com/article/30219/review-and-forecast-july-crash

From last week's 6/14 Email: "The active Master Cycle (MC) suggests a 6/13 major Low and rally to 6/17 Highs. We should then see a volatile chop into 6/20L”

Actual: We made a 6/13 Low and rallied to a 6/18 High of the week and declined sharply into 6/20 Lower Lows.

From the 6/18 evening email and 6/19 Fed day early morning update:

“I have  several reasons to believe we may be at a short term High today, including the bearish rising wedge and the pattern of Fed Highs in 2013 and see a brief, possibly sharp, pullback into 6/20 Lows.”

The last 3 FED meetings in 2013 were all short term Highs (yellow vertical lines in the hourly chart): 

1. 2/20 Fed announcement => 2/19/13 High
2. 4/10 Fed announcement => 4/11/13 High
3. 5/22 Fed announcement => 5/22/13 High
4. 6/19 Fed announcement => 6/18/13 High

Actual:  We made a 6/18 Fed High, 6/19 went sideways until 2.00 pm High of day and saw a sharp decline into 6/20 Lows. The pattern of Fed Highs in 2013 and the rising bearish wedge were among the reasons we called for a 6/19 Fed High and a sharp decline afterwards, although today's Lows wasn't expected to take out the projected 6/6 and 6/13 major Lows,  so the last blog post suggesting that 6/13 was a major Low, was incorrect, 6/13 was a Low, but not the Low. I was expecting one last Higher High above the 5/22/13 Highs, before the actual decline began, but as the 6/6 and 6/13 Lows have now been violated, it suggests that the more bearish Scenarios are already in play and the coming MC High could be a lower High.

What’s next: We should decline into the 6/20-21 Master Cycle Low right at the 6/21 Solar and geometric double Time CIT and see a sharp rally afterwards.  As mentioned before, I have 2 Medium Term Time CITs (which is rare) due in July 2013 that bears watching. There is one cycle that suggests a potential Crash or sharp decline in July 2013, but let’s see what kind of Highs we get first.

We are at a major Low

http://www.safehaven.com/article/30141/we-are-at-a-major-low

In my 6/6 post, I had a Time and Cycle Cluster Low due around 6/11/13 +/-.

"There is a proprietary Astrological "passover" CIT suggesting we bottom as early as 6/6-7, but other cycles continue to decline into the 6/11 major Time and Cycles Cluster Low."
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-next-major-time-and-cycle-cluster.html

Actual: We made a 6/6 Major Low at the Passover major CIT and saw a retest of those Lows at today's 6/13 Low. 

The 140 TD Cycle was due 6/11 +/- and should bottom this week.

In the 5/19 blog post, the dominant Time and Cycles were explained.

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-dominant-time-and-cycles.html

Normal fixed cycles versus active Master Cycles.

Normal fixed Cycles expand and contract and is always +/- few weeks or months. Over time, I have found that for some reason, some historic cycles repeat day by day and this cycle is active for many weeks and sometimes many months, until they stop working and disappear. I have named these kind of cycles the Master Cycles, because they follow a certain numerology that can be found in the Bible as well as in Ved.  With any of the Master Cycle and other cycles that are considered "active", all predicted Highs and Lows are often exact or at most +/- 1 TD.  The main rule that I use is the Master Cycle is active as long as the predicted swing Highs and Lows are either exact or +/-1 TD and it is not considered active, ie it will be incorrect, if it exceeds this 1 TD variance of predicted Highs and Lows. The benefit is you will know right away if the cycle is incorrect within 1 trading day. If the Cycle is not “active” anymore, it becomes “dormant” and it should not be used for future predictions. Both fixed and Master cycles should be used, but normal fixed cycles, does not have the active Master Cycle’s accuracy.

There is now an active Master Cycle  that has been generally in the market, as it called the 10/18/12H and 11/16/12L. It became more active just recently when it became a day by day event, forecasting the:

4/18/13L, 5/22/13H, 6/6/13L, the sharp bounce into 6/10/13H and now calls for a 6/13/13 Major Low+/-1.

This Low is in sync with the 35 Month, 140 TD, 37 TD, 11 wk, 22 wk and 77 week cycles all bottoming this week.

This morning we touched the major Up channel support since the 11/16/12 Low

Bottom line: 6/13/13 should be a major Low and we see a sharp reversal higher.

The next major Time and Cycle Cluster

http://www.safehaven.com/article/30066/the-next-major-time-and-cycle-cluster

Review of the various Time and Cycles of the last 3 weeks, from my last blog post on 5/19/13: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-dominant-time-and-cycles.html:  

”There is a 5/20 geometric and 5/21 Solar CIT that should most likely result in a 5/20-21 High.”

From the 5/17/13 Raj T&C Daily Email’s Forecast: “There is a 5/20 geometric and 5/21 Solar CIT suggesting a 5/20-21 High. From there we see a pullback into 5/23-24L, which is the 5/23 geometric CIT and 5/25 Lunar Eclipse and should be the next 10 TD Hurst Lows. We then see another rally into 5/31H, at the 6/1 Solar CIT and see a sharp decline into 6/11 Cycle Lows”

Actual: We rallied into a 5/22 major High in the 1^st hour, which was the 5/21 Solar CIT projected High, declined into a 5/23-24 geometric CIT Low as expected, rallied and formed a triangle 5/30 High, 1 day before the projected 5/31H and have since declined sharply into today’s Lows.

What’s next: There is a proprietary Astrological "passover" CIT suggesting we bottom as early as 6/6-7, but other cycles continue to decline into the 6/11 major Time and Cycles Cluster Low.

Time CIT: 6/11 is both a geometric and Solar CIT.

Cycle CIT: We have the 140 TD, 37 TD, 11 wk, 22 wk, 77 wk fixed cycles all due on 6/11L+/-

140 TD/204 CD Cycle: 2/5/10L (50 Yr), 8/27/10L, 3/18/11L(-2), 10/6/11L(-2), 4/27/12H(+2), 11/16/12L, 6/11/13 +/-

37 TD Cycle (blue): 3/27/12H -5/18/12L -7/12/12L -9/04/12L-10/26/12L -12/20/12H-12/13/12H-4/10/13H- 6/4/12H

37 TD Cycle (Red): 12/31/12L - 2/26/13L – 4/18/13L – 6/11/13L

11 & 22 wk Cycle: next due 6/11/13+/-

77 wk Cycle: 1/6/09H – 7/1/10L – 12/19/11L – 6/11/13+/-

Conclusion: We should bottom in the next 2-4 Trading days, ideally at the 6/11 major Time and Cycles Cluster Low. 

6/7 Addendum:  
"There is a proprietary Astrological "passover" CIT suggesting we bottom as early as 6/6-7"
 
This is the same astrological passover that found the 10/20/87L, 4/4/94L and more recently the 10/4/11L to name a few.  It looks like that Low came at 6/6/13 Low and 6/10-11 is a higher Low.

From 6/6 intraday Update: "Channel support is at 1600-03 SPX for today. Markets are getting oversold, so a bounce/rally is possible and then another retest of the Lows by 6/11 major Lows."

Actual: We bottomed right at channel support at 1598.30 SPX and rallied 45 SP's into 6/10H and have retested the 6/6 Lows at the 6/13 Lows.