Friday, November 12, 2010

Is there a Major Change in Trend (CIT) at hand?

In a previous post (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/10/explosive-week-ahead.html) , I noticed that there was a Time and Cycle cluster  in the FED week, the 1st week of November, which could have been the 10/27 Low or the 11/5 Mahalaksmi Day High.
 
Here are 3 cycles that supports the 11/5/10 High, the last 2 were posted by Peter at the T&C forums:
1. 77-80 wk cycle: 10/25/04L-80w-5/8/06L-77wk-10/31/07H -2X78.5 wks = 11/5/10H
2. 95 TD Cycle: 5/08/09H -95- 9/23/09H-93-2/5/10L -95- 6/21/10H -96- 11/5/10H
3. 1519 TD/6 Yr Cycle: 10/5/92L-1519-10/8/98L-1519-10/25/04L-1520-11/5H

They say the trend is your friend, but what does that really mean? Here are some clues:

Since the late August Lows, we have had 5 corrections (Cyan lines in chart), lasting 1-2 TD: 
1. 08/27H-08/31L = 24.33 SP's   
2. 09/21H-09/23L = 25.80 SP's    
3. 09/30H-10/04L = 25.29 SP's
4. 10/18H-10/19L = 25.82 SP’s
5. 10/25H-10/27L = 24.40 SP's 
The Main Rules to have a real Change in Trend to down (which means do not short this uptrend aggressively until then), is the decline should last longer than 2 TD and must exceed 26 SP’s.
 
This means any decline is limited to 1201 SPX (26 SP’s from the 11/5 Highs) and 2 TD and If it is more, then the trend has changed to down, which would then suggest a sharper decline.
 
We are currently more than 2 TD down and have surpassed the 1201 SPX at least in the Globex, this indicates an important CIT is in the works. Also NDX, the leader closed below its Major uptrend Line. Globex took out the 1201 Critical support area and was as Low as 1193 Dec SP, which is around 1195 SPX.

Often, though not always, the Globex Lows gets retested during the regular trading session, so we'll see.
  For now here are today's intraday Times and cycles:
  
Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 11/12/10: 10.05, 11.40-12.45 hourly*, 12.20, 2.55, 3.15 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle: 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.30H, 2.00L, 3.40H

There is an hourly CIT today at 11.40-12.45 pm that should be important.

The next few weeks should be more interesting and exciting than the last 7-8 weeks.

2 comments:

SPX and NDX TimeandCycles said...

The 10.05 CIT was the 10.00 HIGH. Markets are cracking

SPX and NDX TimeandCycles said...

The 1.05 Low may have been the 12.45 hourly CIT Low, as it was right at Key support area.