Thursday, September 17, 2020

Review and Forecast: Sep 16 swing High




From the 9/12 Raj T&C Weekend Report: "We should see a 9/11L or as late as 9/14L at the 9/12 Solar time CIT, rally into 9/16 Geo Time CIT High" 

Actual: We made a 9/11L and rallied into 9/16 Geo time CIT and made a High & reversed lower. We now decline into the next T&C Cluster.

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

How one client made 362% YTD returns using the Time and Cycles Information

"I just wanted to say thanks for what you do. Your intraday timings today were amazingly on point.  I was able to take advantage and as a result I did very well. Since I do day trading this is very valuable in addition to the various studies I also use (RSI and MACD). And, over the last three weeks my portfolio has gone from +335% to +362% YTD" 9/16/20 MM

Many clients have their own unique ways of using the Time and Cycles information for their own benefit. I was curious what instruments he used to achieve a 362% YTD as that is unheard off. Below was his answer.

Details how MM made 362% profits:

This is possible if one is willing to do the work required.

What I do has three levels of risk therefore this is NOT something I recommend to anyone else.
But I am willing to share what I do.

 1 – I day trade.
This means I rely heavily on technical info.
I only use fundamentals to get a handle on big picture info in re markets and sectors.
Sometimes it brings my attention to certain stocks.
As a day trader I cash out at the end of the day on average 4 days out of 5.
I only hold overnight when:
I absolutely believe that a particular stock is on a roll.
I also am looking for when, in your daily pdfs, the Executive Summary is in sync with the characterizations you have made about trading days deeper into the report (pg. 8).
When they are in conflict I will not hold overnight.
Your intraday timings are critical for me.
As just one example, when you designate 9:40 am as H and then a CIT at 10:00 or 10:10 with a low at 10:20 or 10:30, rest assured that if have indeed held overnight, I sell that position within 3-4 minutes of the open.
Most of the time I buy the position back lower. Sometimes it continues to go up so I wait until the next Low point.

2 – I day trade options.
They cost a fraction of what the cost is of the underlying equity costs. That’s the good news.
However it is critical to understand however the intrinsic value and the time value of an option is.
I also carefully track and correlate the price of a particular option with the cost of that underlying equity.
Since Schwab’s software (Street Smart Edge) does not do that, I have to do that manually. I do that all day long.
(This is about to change when Schwab acquires TDK Ameritrade and incorporates their Think or Swim software which does.)

3 – I day trade options for “high flyers.”
TSLA, AMZN, NVDA, NFLX, etc.
The advantage is that they typically have a wide trading price range and most importantly, volume.
Low volume is perilous for a day trader.
A day trader seeks to capture a part of the movement (up or down). I often miss some of the movement. I am fine with that.  As Raj says, remember TMAR (Take the Money and Run).
Using the studies as well your technical info I am often able to capture MOST of the movement.

Some other points:
Lastly, I was a stockbroker for 2 years and was the onsite broker at a day trading firm in the earliest days of day trading. 
That education and experience has been vital.
I use two computers.
One has StreetSmartEdge open and it has all my studies for an individual stock:
Price (a line)
Volume (columns)
NASDAQ (a line)
RSI and RSI Stochastic (different colored lines)
MACD and MACD Stochastic (different colored lines)
I use StreetSmartEdge as well to place conditional orders (that includes trailing stops).
The pricing of trailing stops for options is quite strategic but difficult.  I am NOT great at pricing trailing stops for options.

Trading:
On a separate laptop – I keep Schwab.com which displays by default all my accounts at once (I have several).
I often trade option positions for separate stocks in separate accounts. It’s a visual thing. This way by constantly refreshing the screen I can quickly see if I am making (or losing money) in each position (each position being in a separate account).
I keep a backup cell phone on my desk with Yahoo Finance open. I have about 15 different tickers in a watch list and I can see all 15 with their respective reds and greens and thus with a quick glace I see how multiple stocks are moving throughout the day.  It gives a sense how the overall market is doing and how all these are responding.

Before bed:
It’s study time:
CNBC.com, YouTube videos, etc.
When your pdf arrives I set up my manual worksheets for the day.
On those sheets I list the intraday timings as well as various account balances.

I should also mention that another advantage in trading options is that they
settle in just one day (unlike stocks and funds, where you have to wait 48
hours). So I can trade every day without having to wait for cash to be available to
trade with. Therefore if I have cashed out of all positions every day that means 100% of my accounts will be available to trade the next day.

Today's Intraday Time and Cycles for Daytraders:




The intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 09/16/20: 9.35, 10.45, 11.35, 11.55, 12.50 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle are the Pink lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H 

The intraday cycle sees a a possible 9.40L at the 9.35 time CIT, rally to a 10.30 cycle High at the 10.45 time CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low at the 11.35 time CIT, rally to a 12.20 cycle High at the 11.55 or 12.50 time CIT, decline to a 2.00 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.40 cycle High+/-30 min.


Monday, August 31, 2020

Markets are at 11 yr, 33 yr and 50 Year Long term Channel resistance

Markets are at 11 yr, 33 yr and 50 Year Long term Channel resistance

                                                  SPX Log Monthly Chart resistance

                                                 SPX Weekly Chart resistance

                                                 Expanding triangle resistance


Thursday, August 13, 2020

Buy or sell?

Would you Buy or Sell this mystery chart?  Is it near a Top or Bottom?


Friday, August 7, 2020

The inverted Master Cycle predicts an 8/7-10 High at the 8/7-10 T&C Cluster

From my last blogpost from 7/15: "The Master Cycle (MC) was looking for a 6/29H and a 7/9 major High We saw a 6/29L and a 7/9L instead. An inverted MC suggests a strong rally the next few weeks"



Actual: We did see a rally from 7/9L into today so far and the moment of truth for the inverted MC is if we see an 8/7-10 swing High (Green Lines on chart). 

If we see an 8/7-10 High, the MC would again have 3 minimum "hits" (6/29L, 7/9L & 8/10H) to make the MC useful and predictable again and would predict a relative sharp decline afterwards.



8/7-10 Time and Cycle Cluster:

Time Cluster Daily CIT (Change in Trend) due: 8/10-11

8/10 Geometric time CIT
8/11 Solar time CIT
8/12 Geometric time CIT

Hourly Geometric Time CIT: 8/10 at close to 8/11 at Open

Monday 8/10 in the last hour
Tuesday 8/11 in the 1st hour



The 5 min chart has an Apex CIT cluster on Monday 8/10 as well.


Cycle Cluster CITs due 8/7-10

561 CD Cycle due 8/6+/-
19-20 TD Cycle: 8/6-10
30 TD Cycle: 8/10

Conclusion: We are rallying into the 8/7-10 Time and Cycle Cluster at the 8/7-10 Inverted Master Cycle High, suggesting an 8/7-10 swing High being made.





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Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Important Apex CIT is coming Up

Forecast from 8/6 Intraday time CITs: "watch esp. 3.35 pm Eastern"

Actual: 3.25 was the High of the day yesterday and Globex futures are sharply lower

The 5 min chart is showing an important Apex CIT is coming Up.



The intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT (Change in Trend) 08/07/20: 10.10, 10.35, 11.15, 3.45 pm Eastern.


Thursday, August 6, 2020

Intraday Time and Cycles for August 6 2020

The intraday 5 min SPX Time CITs to watch for 08/06/20:
9.35, 1.55, 3.35 pm Eastern, watch esp. 3.35 pm Eastern.
The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High.
If the midday High is higher than the 1st hour High, it suggests a last hour highest High & Vice Versa.

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Intraday Time CITs to watch

The intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT (Change in Trend) to watch for 08/05/20:

10.45**, 12.15, 2.15-35 pm Eastern.

Speculative intraday Path:


We gapped higher to a 9.40H+/-, decline to a 10.45 Low, rally to a 12.15H, decline to a 2.15-35 Low and rally into a last hour 3.30 High+/-30 min.

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Inverted Master Cycle


Any rally above 7/13H confirms the Master Cycle (MC) is incorrect or inverted.

The MC was looking for a 6/29H and a 7/9 major High

We saw a 6/29L and a 7/9L instead.

An inverted MC suggests a strong rally the next few weeks...

Today watch 9.50 and 10.30 Eastern time CITs.

If 9.50H, then 10.30L and if 9.50L, then 10.30H.  

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

July 8-9 is the Master Cycle major High


The Master Cycle (MC) is ontrack to see a 7/8-9 major High right at the 7/8 Time and cycle Cluster. 


The MC didn't predict every single wiggle between 3/23L and 4/17H (green lines), but since that time it pretty much did, including the 6/8H and into the 6/15L (Cyan Lines). 


The MC is not “perfect” as it recently ignored the short-term MC wiggles, from the 6/15L, like it did between 3/23L into 4/17H, but now it is rallying into a 7/8-9 major MC High.





For a number of weeks now, There has been a Time & Cycle Cluster due 7/8 +/-  that should be the Master Cycle major High.



Time CIT: 
7/6 Geometric 
7/7 double geometric
7/8 Solar time CIT



The recent hourly Time Geo CIT was on 7/2 at 4.00, which was a 4.00 Low and the next hourly time CITs are due today, 7/7 at 1.50 & 4.00 pm.

Cycles CIT
48/96 Trading Day Cycle due 7/9+/-
37-38 Trading Day Cycle due 7/9+/-


What's Next: We rally to a July 8-9 major High and start a relatively sharp decline.



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Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com


Tuesday, June 23, 2020

The Powerful Master Cycle, you won't believe what will happen next

"A Master Cycle (MC) is an actual historic cycle with a proprietary numerology, that repeats exact swing Highs and Lows and day by day and is off at most 1-2 days. The Master Cycle has to have at least 3-5 recent "hits", ie it has to have predicted 3-5 recent Highs and Lows,  to become “active and dominant...The MC is a Time Series Cycle, ie it predicts future swing Highs and Lows. It doesn't always project the magnitude of the Price Highs and Lows"

For more detailed information on the Master Cycle, please refer to:

Admittedly, I don't often find these Powerful Master Cycles, but a few weeks ago this Master Cycle was discovered, that has been dominant since the 3/23/20 major Low. 



It has predicted many of the smaller movements since the 3/23L, including:

3/23/20L
4/29/20H(+2)
5/04/20L
5/12/20H (+1)
5/14/20L
5/28/20H (-1)
5/29/20L (-2)
6/08/20H
6/15/20L 


What's next: From the 6/15L & 6/22L we see another rally phase. The MC shows the exact path forwards, with all the major swing Highs and Lows. you won't believe it, but September 2020 is major historic CIT/turning point in my work.




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Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Monday, June 15, 2020

Intraday Time & Cycles


The intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 06/15/20: 9.35, 1.20, 3.20 pm Eastern (Cyan vertical Lines). Pink lines is the intraday cycle

Friday, June 12, 2020

Revisiting the 75 week Flash Crash (FC) Cycle



On 5/3 on my public blog, I mentioned that “the Flash Crash Cycle is due in late May 2020”





The 75 week/360TD/525 CD FC Cycle may have inverted to a 6/8/20 major High, which was also at Long term red Channel resistance.

06/08/20H is:

04/14/00L = 14 X 525.71 CD 
09/21/02L = 13 X 525.77 CD
03/12/03L = 12 X 524.83 CD
08/13/04L = 11 X 525.27 CD
11/21/08L = 08 X 527.13 CD
05/06/10 FC= 07 X 526.57 CD
10/04/11L = 06 X 528.33 CD
02/11/16L = 03 X 526.33 CD
12/26/18L = 01 X 530.00 CD

As mentioned before, at times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 14, 9 (64%) were direct hits and 5 (36%) were misses. It is possible it was a miss as 36% of them were misses, but if the 6/8/20H remains the High in the next few weeks, it becomes more likely that this 75 wk cycle was the 6/8/20H. The 75 week cycle is +/-2 weeks, 3/12/03L, 10/4/11L and 2/11/16L were 1 1/2- 2 weeks off.

Review of the last weeks





From the 5/19 Email: The 45 TD Hurst cycle Low was the shallow 5/14L at 2766 SPX, which was confirmed today at 37 TD Long and now projects an average rally into 6/11-25H

From the 6/2 Email: “Shorter term, we see a 6/4 swing High, before we see a sharper decline into 6/11 WBOE Low”

Actual: From the 5/14 swing Low, the rally continued into the 6/8 swing High, 2 TD later and saw a sharper decline into 6/11 Low.


Conclusion: Shorter term, we are expecting a 6/11 Low +/-1 and another short term rally phase. Once and if the 6/8 swing High gets confirmed as the FC High, we should see a relative sharp 300-500 SP decline in the coming weeks. Are you ready?




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Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com



Sunday, June 7, 2020

When will this Covid Crisis be over?

"Things would get a little better after 1st of July and progressively better after 9/20/20, when Ketu moves out of Mula Nakshatra (Destruction stargroup)" according to the Vedic Astrologers.