Thursday, September 22, 2016

9/23 swing High!

Forecast from my 9/9 public post, I was looking for a 9/7 major High and a 9/12 Solar CIT.

Actual: 9/7H remains an important major High and 9/12 Solar CIT was a large range day that was both a High and Low. 

Forecast from the 9/18 weekend Report:  "9/19-23 should be volatile and choppy into 9/21 Fed CIT, but bias is 9/19H, 9/21L and rally into 9/23H. The Ezekiel Wheel cycle has 9/8H, 9/21-22L, 9/23H and decline into XXX Low."

ActualSince the 9/12 CIT Low, we saw a volatile chop into 9/21 Fed Day and formed a triangle, with a 9/19H, 9/21L and we are rallying into Friday 9/23H at the 9/23 Geo CIT and 9/23-26 Apex CIT. We back-kissed the old 2 month channel resistance yesterday.

What's Next: 9/23 +/-1 is the next swing High and the start of a relatively sharp decline.

Below is today's Daytrading's outlook:

Daytraders: The intraday cycle is a Low am to High pm day or Inverse, "with a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.30 cycle Low at the 10.15 time CIT."

We saw a 9.40H and a 10.15 1st hour Low. We should see a midday and last hour High.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 9/23/16: 10.15, 1.15 pm 

Actual: 10.15L

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines  (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

Actual: 9.40H, 10.15L

Friday sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.30 cycle Low at the 10.15 time CIT, rally to a 12.45 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 1.40 cycle Low at the 1.15 time CIT, rally to a 3.30 cycle High+/-30 min.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Quick Update

From the 9/10 weekend Report:
" Cycle bias is we decline into 9/12 Solar CIT Low, bounce for 1-2 days into 9/12-13H, then decline again into XXXX Some cycles suggests a sharp decline coming."

From last night's 9/12 email: 
"There are high odds we pullback tomorrow, at least 20+ SP’s or more"

Actual: We saw a 9/12 Low and High and today we are seeing the resumption of the downtrend.
Taking out yesterday's Low at 2119.12 SPX is an additional confirmation.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Raj T&C Review and Forecast Sep 9 2016

Review: From my last 6/24 public blogpost, I was looking for a 6/24-27 major Low.
Actual: 6/27 was a major Low, from where we rallied a whopping 202 SP’s into 8/15/16 High. The dominant cycle stopped working after some time and the market has been stuck in a 2 month long choppy trendless sideways channel, probably due to the Summer Doldrums, but that is about to end.

Even though we got stuck in this 2 month sideway channel, the Solar and Geometric Time CIT (Change in Trend, High or Low) dates continue to work with a high degree of accuracy:

Our proprietary Time CITs:

  1. 6/27 Geo CIT => 6/27L
  2. 6/30 Geo CIT => 7/1 High
  3. 7/3 Weekend Solar CIT (7/1-5) => 7/1 High
  4. 7/7 Geo CIT => 7/6L
  5. 7/18 Solar CIT => Miss or 7/15L
  6. 7/22 Geo CIT  => 7/22H
  7. 7/26 Geo CIT  => 7/27L
  8. 7/30 Solar CIT => 8/1H
  9. 8/11 Solar and 8/11 Geo CIT => 8/10L
  10. 8/12 Friday Geo CIT is Monday 8/15H
  11. 8/18 Solar and Geo CIT => 8/17L
  12. 8/23-24 Solar and Geo CIT => 8/23H
  13. 8/30 Solar CIT & 8/31 Geo CIT => 9/1L

We have a Time and Cycle cluster due in the 1st weeks of September.

Time CITs:

1. 9/6 Geo CIT => 9/7H

2. Calendar Days to Trading Days CIT due on: 10/4/11L+1240 CD = 2/15/15H, +1240 TD =  9/7H.

3. 144 TD Inverse Cycle: 7/20/16H =2/12/16L-1,  12/2/15H =6/29/16L-2, 1/20/16L =8/15/16H and 2/11/16L = 9/7H

2.  9/12 Solar and 9/12-13 double Geometric CIT

Cycle CITs:

1.  The 47 TD Cycle of alternation of Highs and Lows (Blue lines in SPX Daily) suggests a 9/1L or 9/7H: 9/29/15L-45-12/2/15H-48-2/11/16L-47-4/20/16H-47-6/27/16L-47- 9/7/16H

1. 290 CD/41-42 week Cycles5/10/06H -290-2/24/07H -290-12/11/07H-291- 9/27/08H -284-7/8/09L-292- 4/26/10H-298- 2/18/11H-280-11/25/11L-294- 9/14/12H -283 -6/24/13L-291-4/11/14L-297-2/2/15L -287-11/16/15L-290-= 9/01/16 +/-7-8 CD

SP declines averages 107 SP’s in the 290 CD cycle:
(larger declines in 2007, 2008 and 2010 were not counted)

107 (05/10/06H-06/14/06L),
094 (02/22/07H-03/14/07L),
087 (06/11/09H-07/08/09L),
095 (02/18/11H-03/16/11L),
134 (10/27/11H-11/25/11L),
131 (09/14/12H-11/16/12L),
127 (05/22/13H-06/24/13L),
083 (04/04/14H-04/11/14L),
112 (12/29/14H-02/02/15L),
097 (11/03/15H-11/16/15L),

2. The NDX 66 week cycle is due 1st week of September+/-, which should be a major High.

Conclusion: We have been stuck in a 2 month boring, choppy sideways channel, but any solid break of that channel support at 2165/ES or 2167 SPX will be a CIT. I had a Time and Cycle Cluster due in the 1st week of September and 2 timing CITs for that to occur: 9/6-7 or 9/12. The 9/7 High is looking good right now.