Sentiment Extremes in the last 3 weeks

From T&C forum post I made a few days ago: "Sentiment continues extreme, we have now 3 weeks straight with PC ratios over 1.00, today again at 1.03. This suggest we will get a short squeeze from Hell, before any Serious decline manifest, until then we remain in the 8/9L -8/31H trading range."

In the last post I mentioned about a possible flash crash Low in October, however, the extreme bearish sentiment the last 3 weeks was a serious concern.  

There is only one solution: Get rid of all those Bears first, with a powerful short squeeze rally from Hell. That is what is in progress now. Premature Bears needs to be careful.
 

The Flash Crash Cycle

The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash.

What only a few people know is that this Cycle has been in the markets ever since the Flash crash of 4/14/00.

The next Flash Crash is coming soon.

When exactly?: In October 2011. 

After it arrives, I will post on this public blog the cycle that suggests the coming Flash crash Low. 
 
If you are prepared for it,  it will be fun to watch unfold.

Monthly Bonds

We are following a 72 Month cycle, next due in September 2011, which is 360 months from the September 1981 major Low.

We have been in a (red) up channel since April 1986.

Intraday Change in Trend (CIT) Times 9/21/01

 

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the red vertical lines 9/21/11: 10.10, 12.30, 3.30, 4.00 pm Eastern 

 

 Actual: 10.05 HOD, 12.30 Low, next is 3.30, 4.00 pm 

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78.6% retraces and the 9/12-13 cluster CIT

On 8/26 (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/08/786-has-been-ruling.html) and 9/6 (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/09/intraday-review-of-make-or-break-day.html) I mentioned that the 78.6% retraces has been turning these markets.

Here we are a couple of weeks later and the markets are close to down channel resistance around 1196 SPX and again right at one of those old 78.6% retraces.

 I had a 9/12 Solar CIT (90%) and a 9/13 double geometric CIT (70-80%) and 9/12 was also a Cycle CIT.  We declined into 9/12 Solar CIT and reversed sharply out of it, making 9/12 an ideal swing Low.

The 2 green vertical lines (click on chart to enlarge) were hourly CITs.

The 1st hourly CIT was an Apex CIT close to the 9/12 intra day Low.

The last hourly CIT was the 1st hour today, which was this morning's 9/14 1st hour Low of the day.

Intraday Time and Cycles 9/12/11

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the red vertical lines 9/12/11: 1st hour, 9.35, 11.15, 12.40, 4.05 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.35 CIT was a 9.35 Low

Intraday Cycle are the Cyan lines: 9.40L, 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.30H, 2.00L, 3.30H (or Inverse)

Actual: 9.35 Low

9.35 CIT was a Low, but will it hold? Today should be interesting to watch.

Intraday Review of the Make or Break day

At the T&C Forum (http://www.timeandcycles.com) early this morning,  I mentioned in the Live chat (http://www.timeandcycles.com/board/chat/) that the Low was most likely in,  as Major channel support held right at the opening Gap and at the 78.6% retrace

"09:37:00 ‹RajaCar› Possible Low is in
09:41:18 ‹RajaCar› Often, when you get these huge Globex down nights, everyone gets beared up and the 1st 15 minutes will be the Low of the day. Today is also a Low am to High pm day, so we'll see.
09:41:58 ‹RajaCar› and yes, we also hit channel support and that 78.6% retrace level"

The intraday speculative path was the Cyan Lines, the vertical red lines was the intraday Change in Trend (CIT) times (click on chart to enlarge). Notice the 10.40 CIT was the retest Low of the day.

Make or break Day

Globex futures are down -28 SP's at the moment.

Major Make or Break (MOB) support is at the 78.6% retrace at 1144-45 SPX area, which is major Up channel support as well.

The market has reversed the last 3 times we touched the 78.6% retrace.

If we manage to close below the 78.6%, it would be an important Change in Trend to watch.