The long term Crash & Panic cycle: A critical time to watch

From my last post: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/06/long-term-timing-points.html

"I now have another important Long term NDX CIT coming up that should mark an important High or Low. This date is also supported by a Solar CIT on this date. Again if we rally into this date, it will become an important High and if we decline into this date, it will become an important Low. 

My current cycles indicate we are still in a long term Panic window and this date will be an important High or Low to watch."

The amazing Panic cycle: 

10/11/90L-181- 04/4/94L -186-10/28/97L-186-05/22/01H => 4 Month shift!   

09/21/01L-187-4/20/05L-187-11/21/08L-187- 6/25/12L/H?

The long term Panic Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is the regular 186-187 week Cycle that has some of the biggest crashes in the last 2 decades and is next due in the coming 6/25 week.  

This 187 crash cycle was one of the main reasons I was expecting a major secondary 6/1-4 High, where I had 3 long term timing CITs, but as we declined into this timing CIT, it became an intermediate 6/4 Low and the cycles were proven incorrect.  

Of course, all cycles do expand and contract, but it is interesting that there is an unusual Time & Cycle Cluster in the coming 3 Trading Day window, starting with this Friday 6/22 geometric and Solar timing CIT (Change in Trend) cluster and into Tuesday 6/26 long term NDX geometric and Solar CIT, which falls within the Panic cycle window. This Time window is also supported by some important Astro CITs:  6/24: Uranus Square Pluto, 6/25 Saturn goes direct, 6/27 Venus goes Direct, making these coming 3 days a critical time to watch.

It is entirely possible that this 6/22-26 T&C Cluster window will become an important High instead, like we once did in one of the 186-87 week Crash cycles, back on May 22 2001 High (see chart), before we saw the infamous 9/11 Crash.  

 

Long Term Timing Points

Precise Timing is Everything in this Business.

I use 2 proprietary Timing techniques to help me pinpoint future "Change in Trend" (CIT) Dates. One is "Geometric" CITs and the other that I have found highly accurate over time are "Solar" CITs. A CIT could be a High or a Low. The rule is, if we rally into the CIT date and reverse out of it, it will be a High and if we decline into the CIT Date, and reverse out of it, it will be a Low.

Since early January 2012,  I had a rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs, covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which became the Monday 6/4/12 Low right at the Open.  Originally I was looking for a 6/1-4 secondary High, but as we declined into it, it became a 6/4 Low and the cycles were proven incorrect.  We have now rallied for 2 weeks ever since this important 6/4 Low.

I now have another important Long term NDX CIT coming up that should mark an important High or Low. This date is also supported by a Solar CIT on this date. Again if we rally into this date, it will become an important High and if we decline into this date, it will become an important Low. 

My current cycles indicate we are still in a long term Panic window and this date will be an important High or Low to watch.

A Major secondary High is coming up!

From my Sunday 5/20 public post:"We have declined into the 5/18-21 Lunar Crash window Low, with Friday 5/18, New Moon -2 being the ideal lunar Low and close to Monday's 5/21 Solar CIT, which was targeting 1290-93 SPX H&S Target, Bear Flag Target, Tunnel Price Target and the 10/27/11 wave 1 High, which were all achieved at Friday's 1291.98 SPX intraday Low...We also have 2 squares that were due on 5/16 and 5/18, suggesting a short term Low at any time"

Result: We saw a 5/18 Low.


From Monday's 5/21 Raj T&C Daily Email: "Shorter term, we should see a 1-2 day bounce into 5/21-22, then retest the recent Lows by the 5/23 geometric CIT, before we head strongly higher into XXX Major triple Cluster"

Result: We saw a 5/22 High, sharp retest 5/23 Low and have rallied today 5/24 as expected.

So, what's next? We should see continued volatility, with choppiness directly ahead and then rally into my long standing Triple Time & Cycle Cluster major secondary High. From that High the powerful decline should resume with a vengeance.  Be prepared.

 

Short term Low due, but decline is not over yet

There is a Triple Fibonacci cluster support, right below current prices at 1286-1291 SPX.

1. 61.8% retrace from the 12/19/11L to the 5/1/12H is 1286.41 SPX.
2. 50% retrace from the 11/25/11L to the 5/1/12H is 1290.52 SPX.
3. 38.2% retrace from the 10/4/11L to the 5/1/12H is 1289.59 SPX.

Further more, counting from the 5/1/12 High, if wave 1 = 72.19 SP's = wave 3 = 1293.68 SPX

We have declined into the 5/18-21 Lunar Crash window Low, with Friday 5/18, New Moon -2 being the ideal lunar Low and close to Monday's 5/21 Solar CIT, which was targeting 1290-93 SPX H&S Target, Bear Flag Target, Tunnel Price Target and the 10/27/11 wave 1 High, which were all achieved at Friday's 1291.98 SPX intraday Low.

We also have 2 squares that were due on 5/16 and 5/18, suggesting a short term Low at any time, perhaps we see a spillover decline into Monday 5/21.

I was looking at the current Vedic planetary Transits

Today 5/20 is a Solar Eclipse in the Vedic sign of Taurus. 

From 5/21 at 11.40 - 5/22 at 5.40 pm, We will have an unusual 6 of the 9 planets, Sun, Moon,  Jupiter, Mercury, Venus and Ketu (Moon's South Node), conjoined and concentrated together in the Vedic sign of Taurus.

This often is an important time to watch in one's life and the markets.

The intense and immense concentration of Planetary Power will have an impact in a specific area in one's life, depending in which house (area of Life) Taurus is placed.  In general, during eclipses, the Jyotishis recommended to be more inward and silent.

Review of the last week and today's intraday Time and Cycles

In the last post, I was looking a for potential crash into OE week. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/05/cause-for-crash-this-oe-week.html "Crashes are rare events, so caution is warranted with the following analysis... If we see a Panic wave develop in the next 1-2 weeks, it should ideally be into 5/18/12, the New Moon -2 CD."

Actual: We saw only a Mini Crash this past week, as we are down -48.53 SP's  from last week's close at the opening today's 5/18 New Moon - 2 Date.

Overnight Globex dropped to lower lows as -7.75 at 1293.50 June SP around 12.40 am, then slowly recovered 14 SPs into +6.00 at the moment.

Was the Globex Low, the Low of the New Moon-2 move? It is possible, as the markets are extremely oversold and the Facebook IPO is causing some temporary optimism, that should keep the markets afloat today.



Intraday 5 min June SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 5/18/12: 10.00, 1.00 Apex, 3.20 Eastern

The intraday bias today is for a 10.00 CIT High, down into 11.40 cycle Low+/-30 and perhaps into 1.00 pm Apex CIT LOD, then there is a 68% chance we see a rally into the last hour High at the 3.20 CIT.

Daily channel support is around current prices at 1300-1304 SPX (see chart). Daily Resistance is at 1325 SPX. 

A rally above 5 min down channel resistance at 1308 June SP is short term bullish.

Ideally we retest yesterday's lows today, but as we are overdue for a 1-2 bounce, we should see an oversold rally into the 5/20 Lunar Eclipse and 5/21 Solar CIT.

Cause for a Crash this OE week?

These comments were posted in the daily Email the last 2-3 weeks:

"In my 2012 forecast, it was noted that 11/13/12  is one of the dates to watch as it the Mahalaksmi's date, the Natural Laws governing wealth (aka as Carolan's Dark date), where 3 major crashes ended in the past, 10/29/29, 10/20/87 and 10/28/97, which were all a few days before the Mahalaksmi date due this year on 11/13/12.

There are 2 eclipses coming up that we need to be aware of: 5/20 Solar Eclipse and 6/4 Lunar Eclipse, as the lunatics can manifest around this time and Panic can set in, perhaps in the troubled European countries.

5/20 Solar Eclipse is exactly 180 degrees from 11/13 Solar Eclipse and if we see a Panic wave develop in the next 1-2 weeks, it should ideally be into 5/18/12, the New Moon -2 CD."

Globex is currently lower by -12, suggesting we will drop below the 1340 SPX Trapdoor to hell (Yellow line, click on chart to enlarge) and go in Panic mode, unless ofcourse we bounce right away, after the opening Price.

 

Crashes are rare events, so caution is warranted with the following analysis.

Eversince the conjunction of Mars and the Vedic Dragon, Rahu (Moon's North Node) on 4/30/12 (5/1/12) major secondary High, we have been in a steep decline.

The 1987 close correlation, noted by George Slezak and others, saw a 10/7/87 Lunar Eclipse, that then crashed into its Option Expiration (OE) week and into a few days before the Mahalaksmi New Moon.

We are in this Option Expiration week, exactly 180 Lunar Months from the 10/28/1997 Mahalaksmi Crash Low, and a few days before the 5/20 New Moon and Solar Eclipse (SE).

This 5/20/12 Solar Eclipse is exactly 180 degrees from the 11/13/12 MahaLaksmi (Natural Laws governing wealth) New Moon Date, aka as Carolan's Dark date, which has been associated with past crash lows of 10/29/29L, 10/20/87L and 10/28/97L.

Geometric CIT Times to watch this week: 5/15-16 Triple CIT

5/16 is also 720 TD (2X 360) from the 7/8/09 Major Low

New Moon - 2 = 5/18/12
Solar Eclipse: 5/20/12
Solar CIT: 5/21/12, the last 5/11 Solar CIT was the 5/10 High
Geometric CIT: 5/23/12

Is it possible that the 2 Billion JP Morgan http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/14/jpmorgan-chase-2-billion_n_1514884.html (ruler of the crooks) loss will unravel the markets in this OE week, right before the opposition of the Mahalaksmi date?

 

Review of the last week and what's next?

From last weekend's Email: "The MC1 predicted a 6 TD (trading days) rally from the 4/23 Low into 5/1 High and now suggests lower lows into 5/8-9L. From there we should rally into OE week"

Actual: We saw from the 5/1 High, a sharp decline into 5/9 Lows. 

What's next? Globex futures suggests another strong down opening into today's 5/11 Solar CIT and 3/25/11 Symmetry Cycle Low (click on chart to enlarge). It will be  interesting to see if we make a lower or Higher Low wrt to the 5/9 MC predicted Lows. All bets are off for next week's Option Expiration week, if we do make sharply lower Lows today, it should be fun to watch.

The Master Cycle is active again

In the last post, I was looking for an 4/20-23 Low:

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/04/139-cycle-low-next-solar-citand-gold.html

"This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT."

We saw an actual 4/23 Low and have surged 46+ SP's into yesterday's Highs.

What's next? The Master Cycle (MC) is active again, after being dormant for some time.

The MC2 (red lines in hourly chart) predicted the 4/2H, 4/10L, 4/17H, 4/23L. 

Short term, we should see a High no later than today and see a sharp brief pullback, before heading higher afterwards. 

If we do rally today, then the 10.35-11.40 hourly CIT (Cyan vertical lines) Today could well be the High of the day, we'll have to see as the intraday cycle suggests a 1st hour High and a normal bias to be higher.

Generally we should see higher highs (above the 4/2 High at 1422) in the coming rally phase, with some brief short sharp pullbacks along the way. 

Once the rally is complete we will see the sharpest decline of the year take place, be prepared.

The 139 Cycle Low, the next Solar CIT and the Gold Markets

In my last post, I mentioned 4/10 Solar CIT (Change in Trend) Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/04/another-solar-cit.html

From that 4/10 Low, the T&C prediction in my daily Email was for "lots of volatility, but the Time & Cycle bias remains: 4/9-10 Low, 4/12 High, 4/16 Low, 4/17 High, 4/20 Low"

Result: We saw a volatile week, with an actual 4/10L, 4/12H, 4/16L and 4/17H and we are now declining into 4/20-23 Lows.

Here is an excerpt from last week's email, predicting a 4/20-23 major swing Low:

"The reliable 139 TD Cycle of Lows: 2/5/10 Low – 139TD – 8/27/10 Low – 139 TD – 3/16/11 Low -140- 10/4/11L -139- 4/20-23 Low.

The 139 Cycle suggested an 4/2 High, which we saw and a general decline into 4/20 Solar CIT Lows. There is a 188 TD Cycle (green) due in early May 2012.

The 2X1 Trendline from the 8/9/11 Lows (above TL) has been major resistance in this rally. There is also bearish RSI divergence since the 1st week of February.

A closer look at the 139 cycle of Lows:
1. 1/19/10 High into 2/05/10 Lows was 105.95 SP decline and a 38% retrace in 17 CD.
2. 8/09/10 High into 8/27/10 Lows was 89.54 SP decline in 18 CD (CD = Calendar Days).
3. 2/18/11 & 3/1/11 High into 3/16/11 Lows was 95.02 SP decline in 26 and 15 CD.
4. 9/16/11 High into 10/04/11 Low was 145.62 SP decline in 18 CD.

The average CD decline from the Highs to the Lows was 17-18 CD, so calculating from the 4/20/12 Low, it suggested an 4/2-3 High, which we saw an 18 CD decline into 4/20 Low.

The next Solar CIT (Change in Trend)

This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT.

Note: Globex is +6.00 at the moment, but this is OE day and there is a 9.45 CIT, that suggests a 9.45 High. The intraday cycle also suggests a 1st hour High. Daily cycles above suggests a lower low today.

The Stockmarkets are closely related to Gold, so let's take a brief look at Gold.

The monthly Gold (pit) (click on chart to enlarge) is in a steep up channel since November 2008 Major Lows, which is the 3rd steepest Trendline. We are hovering and closed right at critical up channel support at the 1640 area. Any solid break below this long term Up channel support is bearish. The monthly Gold has 2 monthly CITs to watch: July 2012 and April 2013.

The weekly Gold has a 91 week cycle that is next due in June 2013. First support on any channel break is at the green TL support around 1550.

The daily Gold is hanging on a thread as it has been creeping along its long term up channel support in a short term green down channel. We are right at Make or Break support levels and would need to rally soon or risk further downside acceleration.

The daily Gold CITs are: 4/25, 5/4, 5/11, 7/12

Another Solar CIT and Cycle Low

In these volatile markets it is nice to find the timing Solar CITs (Change in Trend) still working.

Solar CITs are 84-90% accurate and the accuracy increase if the cycles align with them.

The last one was the 4/2 Solar CIT High (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/04/331-weekend-solar-cit-was-monday-42.html) and we saw a 65 SP decline into the most recent  4/10 Solar CIT Low, which was another Bulls-eye hit.

The cycles were also looking for a 4/2 High and a decline into the 4/10 Solar CIT supported Low.

The next Solar CIT should be an important one to watch as cycles suggests a Major turning point on that date.

Trend confirmed lower and Intraday Times and Cycles 4/09

The 3/31 Solar CIT  was looking for an 4/2 High and we got that. We finally saw the decline below 1386.87 SPX confirming the bearish Cycles from the expected 4/2 High. 

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/09/12: 10.00, 11.55, 12.50, 1.35, 155** pm Eastern

Actual: 9.55 Low

Today is a High am  to Low pm day or Inverse.

Intraday Times and Cycles

For the Stockmarket and SP 500: Thursday’s bias is a Low am to High pm (or Inverse) with a 10.00-30 Cycle Low at either the 9.50-10.00 CIT or the 10.45 CIT, we then rally to a 12.45 Cycle High+/-30, perhaps as early as the 11.20 CIT, decline to a 1.40 Cycle Low, rally to a 3.00-3.30 High.

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/05/12: 9.50, 10.00, 10.45, 11.20 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle are the Cyan lines: 10.00-30 Low, 12.45 High, 1.40L, 3.00-30H

The 3/31 weekend Solar CIT was the Monday 4/2 major High of the week

From my last post, the 4/2-5 Time and cycle cluster:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-time-cycle-t-cluster-cit-42-5.html

"The time cluster is quite large and covers the entire week, which is not of practical use for trading purposes imho, so how can we pinpoint the exact date for the High or Low to occur?

I use Time & Cycle CIT Order of importance: 

1. Solar CITs (84-90% accuracy), then 

2. Geometric CIT (70-80% accuracy)

3. then other CITs, like squares, Astros, etc. 

The 3/31 (Saturday) Solar CIT is the most important turning point, which should be either Friday 3/30, but more likely Monday 4/2 CIT."

The priority always goes to the Solar CITs (Change in Trend) first, other CIts are secondary to it.

The 3/31 weekend Solar CIT was the Monday 4/2 major High of the week, as posted on the blog updates as we rallied into 4/2 High and reversed lower. The next  Solar CIT and geometric CIT should also be a High.

The 70 TD on the chart was the 4/2 High. If we close decisively below wedge support, it will cause a sharper decline into the next cycle Low.

Major Time & Cycle (T&C) Cluster CIT: 4/2-5

Major Time & Cycle (T&C) Cluster Change in Trend (CIT) due on:  4/2-5
1.    3/31 Solar (weekend) CIT
2.    4/1-4/2** Master Time Code
3.    4/3/12: geometric CIT
4.    4/3/12: Su30Ju 4/3
5.    4/3/12 is the next 10 and 20 TD Hurst Cycle Lows
6.    4/3/12: 1000 CD Cycle: 07/08/09L-1000 CD - 04/03/12
7.    4/3/12: Peter’s (PDW)1323 Cycle (posted at http://www.timeandcycles.com): 

10/7/97H-1323/189w-5/22/01H-1322/189w-1/3/05H-1316/188w-8/11/08H-1323 - 4/3/12H
8.    4/3/12 – 4/4/12: 45 TD from 1/30/12 low, 90 TD from 11/25/11 low,
9.    4/4/12 Mercury Direct
10.    4/4/12 is 180 degrees form 10/4/11 Low
11.    4/5/12: 03/22/01L + 24 squared weeks = 04/05/12
12.    4/5/12: Bond1 & Ian's 89 TD: 7/1/10L, 11/5/10H, 3/16/11L, 7/22/11H, 11/28/11L, 4/5/12

The 89 TD alternating Cycle: 7/1/10 Low, 11/5/10 High, 3/16/11 Low, 7/22/11 High, 11/28/11 Low, 4/5/12 High?
The 89 TD Cycle has a noticeable alternating High and Low and the next 89 TD cycle is due on 4/5 and the alternation suggests it will be High,

Peter's 1323 Cycle of Highs: 10/7/97H-1323/189w-5/22/01H-1322/189w-1/3/05H-1316/188w-8/11/08H-1323 - 4/3/12H? The 1323 cycle suggests a 4/3/12 High.

The 20 TD Hurst Cycle has a Low around that time: 10/4L- 20 TD- 11/1L -17- 11/25L-16- 12/19L -17-1/13L- 16- 2/07/12L-19- 3/6/12L-19- 4/2/12 Low.

The time cluster is quite large and covers the entire week, which is not of practical use for trading purposes imho, so how can we pinpoint the exact date for the High or Low to occur?

I use Time & Cycle CIT Order of importance: 

1. Solar CITs (84-90% accuracy), then 

2. Geometric CIT (70-80% accuracy)

3. then other CITs, like squares, Astros, etc. 

The 3/31 (Saturday) Solar CIT is the most important turning point, which should be either Friday 3/30, but more likely Monday 4/2 CIT. The intraday cycles suggests Friday and Monday are down biased and would suggests an 4/2 Low and rally the rest of the week.

It is bullish if we decline into these important Time clusters and make an important Low, reverse and rally to continue to higher highs and Vice Versa.

Today, Friday 3/30 I had a 1st hourly CIT, most likely a High.

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT Times 3/30/12: 1st hour, 11.25, 12.35, 2.45 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.30 High

Intraday Cycle: (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.40L

Actual: 9.30 High.

There is another Major fixed Cycle due around 4/20, which is the next important date to watch