Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Time & Cycle cluster: 4/30-5/3


For a number of weeks now, I have had 4/30-5/3 as a Time & Cycle Cluster, where I was expecting a swing Low to be made. However, we have been in a relative narrow compressed channel & trading range these last 4 weeks.  


In these "Stuck Up" markets the last 4 weeks, the normal Time and Cycles gets ignored, so we will have to see if we are seeing a swing Low or a High in this time period.

Time: 

4/30: Saturn Retro 4/29-30
4/30: Solar Time CIT: 4/30
5/2: 9 Days of MD Cycle: 5/2/19
5/3: Apex of the rising wedge due 5/3


5/3:4661 TD 
07/19/99H +4661= 01/26/18H
10/18/99L +4664= 05/03/18L
03/24/00H +4660=10/03/18H
04/14/00L +4663= 10/29/18L
05/24/00L +4659= 12/03/18H
09/01/00H +4661= 03/21/18H
10/18/00L +4660= 05/03/19


Cycles: The 77 TD,136 TD, 316-17 TD/461 CD cycles and 96 weeks/672 CD Cycle  are all due end April to early May.


77-78 TD Cycle: 11/4/16L-78-3/1/17H-76-6/19/17H-2X76-1/26/18H-80-5/22/18H-75-9/07/18L-75-12/26/18LL-80-4/29/18

136 TD Cycle: 4/29/18

461 CD/317 TD Cycle: 7/1/10L -460-10/4/11L-454-12/31/12L-466-4/11/14L-465-7/20/15H-473-11/4/16L-448-1/26/18H-461-4/30-5/3/19

96 wks/ 672 CD/ 463 TD cycle of Lows: 4/14/97L-3X668- 10/10/02L-672-8/13/04L-670-6/14/06L-2X676- 2/25/10L-12/19/11L- 2 X 672 = 8/24/15L-6/26/17L+34/29/19



Conclusion: 4/30-5/3 Time and Cycle Cluster, should be an important Change in Trend.



Sunday, April 28, 2019

SPX and US Dollar in compressed channels

SPX has been a narrow compressed sideways to Up channel for more than a month now.



Everyone is talking about the recent US Dollar Breakout, but it remains in a long term channel and right at channel resistance.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

and the beat goes on..

and the beat goes on. Shorter term, we could sell channel resistance and buy channel support until the channel breaks.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Stuck in a narrow compressed Up channel the last 2 weeks

Stuck in a narrow compressed Up channel the last 2 weeks, once it breaks, it should be relatively sharp and fast.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

The Master Cycle Update: 4/2-3 High

In my last post, I was looking for a 3/4 swing High

From 3/4 Raj T&C Daily Email: I found a possible Master Cycle (MC) that forecasted the:

1. 09/21/18H
2. 10/29/18L
3. 11/07/18H
4. 12/03/18H
5. 12/26/18 major Low.

It is now suggesting a 3/05 swing High, followed by a decline into 3/11L, up into 3/14-15H, 3/19L, 3/21H. I don’t expect this cycle to follow perfectly all the details, as it has been off at times by 1-2 TD, but it should generally be in there."

Actual: 
1. 3/05H => 3/4 short term swing High, 1 TD earlier
2. 3/11L => 3/8 Low, 1 TD earlier
3.3/14-15H =>  Miss
4. 3/19L => 3/20L, 1 TD earlier
5. 3/21H => 3/21 High.

From the above we see that although the MC is not perfect as it had 1 miss, the cycle is still "active" with future hits +/-2. The MC is a time Cycle that doesn't predict Price Magnitude.


From 3/21 & 3/27 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The MC suggests a 3/21H, decline into 3/27L, rally into 4/2 swing High"

Actual:
6. 3/27L => 3/25L, 2 TD earlier, 3/27 retest Low
7. 4/2H => We are currently rallying into 4/2H


There is a 16 TD, 66 TD and 25 TD fixed cycle supporting an 4/3-5 CIT as well.

Conclusion and what's Next: The Master Cycle has had some misses and is not perfect, but it remains in the markets with "active" hits +/-1-2 TD and is now suggesting an 4/2 swing High+/-2 at the 4/2 Geometric Time CIT, 4/4-5 Time Square CIT and 16, 25 and 66 TD Cycles due 4/3-5.



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