Review of the last week and what's next?

From last weekend's Email: "The MC1 predicted a 6 TD (trading days) rally from the 4/23 Low into 5/1 High and now suggests lower lows into 5/8-9L. From there we should rally into OE week"

Actual: We saw from the 5/1 High, a sharp decline into 5/9 Lows. 

What's next? Globex futures suggests another strong down opening into today's 5/11 Solar CIT and 3/25/11 Symmetry Cycle Low (click on chart to enlarge). It will be  interesting to see if we make a lower or Higher Low wrt to the 5/9 MC predicted Lows. All bets are off for next week's Option Expiration week, if we do make sharply lower Lows today, it should be fun to watch.

The Master Cycle is active again

In the last post, I was looking for an 4/20-23 Low:

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/04/139-cycle-low-next-solar-citand-gold.html

"This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT."

We saw an actual 4/23 Low and have surged 46+ SP's into yesterday's Highs.

What's next? The Master Cycle (MC) is active again, after being dormant for some time.

The MC2 (red lines in hourly chart) predicted the 4/2H, 4/10L, 4/17H, 4/23L. 

Short term, we should see a High no later than today and see a sharp brief pullback, before heading higher afterwards. 

If we do rally today, then the 10.35-11.40 hourly CIT (Cyan vertical lines) Today could well be the High of the day, we'll have to see as the intraday cycle suggests a 1st hour High and a normal bias to be higher.

Generally we should see higher highs (above the 4/2 High at 1422) in the coming rally phase, with some brief short sharp pullbacks along the way. 

Once the rally is complete we will see the sharpest decline of the year take place, be prepared.

The 139 Cycle Low, the next Solar CIT and the Gold Markets

In my last post, I mentioned 4/10 Solar CIT (Change in Trend) Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/04/another-solar-cit.html

From that 4/10 Low, the T&C prediction in my daily Email was for "lots of volatility, but the Time & Cycle bias remains: 4/9-10 Low, 4/12 High, 4/16 Low, 4/17 High, 4/20 Low"

Result: We saw a volatile week, with an actual 4/10L, 4/12H, 4/16L and 4/17H and we are now declining into 4/20-23 Lows.

Here is an excerpt from last week's email, predicting a 4/20-23 major swing Low:

"The reliable 139 TD Cycle of Lows: 2/5/10 Low – 139TD – 8/27/10 Low – 139 TD – 3/16/11 Low -140- 10/4/11L -139- 4/20-23 Low.

The 139 Cycle suggested an 4/2 High, which we saw and a general decline into 4/20 Solar CIT Lows. There is a 188 TD Cycle (green) due in early May 2012.

The 2X1 Trendline from the 8/9/11 Lows (above TL) has been major resistance in this rally. There is also bearish RSI divergence since the 1st week of February.

A closer look at the 139 cycle of Lows:
1. 1/19/10 High into 2/05/10 Lows was 105.95 SP decline and a 38% retrace in 17 CD.
2. 8/09/10 High into 8/27/10 Lows was 89.54 SP decline in 18 CD (CD = Calendar Days).
3. 2/18/11 & 3/1/11 High into 3/16/11 Lows was 95.02 SP decline in 26 and 15 CD.
4. 9/16/11 High into 10/04/11 Low was 145.62 SP decline in 18 CD.

The average CD decline from the Highs to the Lows was 17-18 CD, so calculating from the 4/20/12 Low, it suggested an 4/2-3 High, which we saw an 18 CD decline into 4/20 Low.

The next Solar CIT (Change in Trend)

This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT.

Note: Globex is +6.00 at the moment, but this is OE day and there is a 9.45 CIT, that suggests a 9.45 High. The intraday cycle also suggests a 1st hour High. Daily cycles above suggests a lower low today.

The Stockmarkets are closely related to Gold, so let's take a brief look at Gold.

The monthly Gold (pit) (click on chart to enlarge) is in a steep up channel since November 2008 Major Lows, which is the 3rd steepest Trendline. We are hovering and closed right at critical up channel support at the 1640 area. Any solid break below this long term Up channel support is bearish. The monthly Gold has 2 monthly CITs to watch: July 2012 and April 2013.

The weekly Gold has a 91 week cycle that is next due in June 2013. First support on any channel break is at the green TL support around 1550.

The daily Gold is hanging on a thread as it has been creeping along its long term up channel support in a short term green down channel. We are right at Make or Break support levels and would need to rally soon or risk further downside acceleration.

The daily Gold CITs are: 4/25, 5/4, 5/11, 7/12

Another Solar CIT and Cycle Low

In these volatile markets it is nice to find the timing Solar CITs (Change in Trend) still working.

Solar CITs are 84-90% accurate and the accuracy increase if the cycles align with them.

The last one was the 4/2 Solar CIT High (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/04/331-weekend-solar-cit-was-monday-42.html) and we saw a 65 SP decline into the most recent  4/10 Solar CIT Low, which was another Bulls-eye hit.

The cycles were also looking for a 4/2 High and a decline into the 4/10 Solar CIT supported Low.

The next Solar CIT should be an important one to watch as cycles suggests a Major turning point on that date.

Trend confirmed lower and Intraday Times and Cycles 4/09

The 3/31 Solar CIT  was looking for an 4/2 High and we got that. We finally saw the decline below 1386.87 SPX confirming the bearish Cycles from the expected 4/2 High. 

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/09/12: 10.00, 11.55, 12.50, 1.35, 155** pm Eastern

Actual: 9.55 Low

Today is a High am  to Low pm day or Inverse.

Intraday Times and Cycles

For the Stockmarket and SP 500: Thursday’s bias is a Low am to High pm (or Inverse) with a 10.00-30 Cycle Low at either the 9.50-10.00 CIT or the 10.45 CIT, we then rally to a 12.45 Cycle High+/-30, perhaps as early as the 11.20 CIT, decline to a 1.40 Cycle Low, rally to a 3.00-3.30 High.

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/05/12: 9.50, 10.00, 10.45, 11.20 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle are the Cyan lines: 10.00-30 Low, 12.45 High, 1.40L, 3.00-30H

The 3/31 weekend Solar CIT was the Monday 4/2 major High of the week

From my last post, the 4/2-5 Time and cycle cluster:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-time-cycle-t-cluster-cit-42-5.html

"The time cluster is quite large and covers the entire week, which is not of practical use for trading purposes imho, so how can we pinpoint the exact date for the High or Low to occur?

I use Time & Cycle CIT Order of importance: 

1. Solar CITs (84-90% accuracy), then 

2. Geometric CIT (70-80% accuracy)

3. then other CITs, like squares, Astros, etc. 

The 3/31 (Saturday) Solar CIT is the most important turning point, which should be either Friday 3/30, but more likely Monday 4/2 CIT."

The priority always goes to the Solar CITs (Change in Trend) first, other CIts are secondary to it.

The 3/31 weekend Solar CIT was the Monday 4/2 major High of the week, as posted on the blog updates as we rallied into 4/2 High and reversed lower. The next  Solar CIT and geometric CIT should also be a High.

The 70 TD on the chart was the 4/2 High. If we close decisively below wedge support, it will cause a sharper decline into the next cycle Low.

Major Time & Cycle (T&C) Cluster CIT: 4/2-5

Major Time & Cycle (T&C) Cluster Change in Trend (CIT) due on:  4/2-5
1.    3/31 Solar (weekend) CIT
2.    4/1-4/2** Master Time Code
3.    4/3/12: geometric CIT
4.    4/3/12: Su30Ju 4/3
5.    4/3/12 is the next 10 and 20 TD Hurst Cycle Lows
6.    4/3/12: 1000 CD Cycle: 07/08/09L-1000 CD - 04/03/12
7.    4/3/12: Peter’s (PDW)1323 Cycle (posted at http://www.timeandcycles.com): 

10/7/97H-1323/189w-5/22/01H-1322/189w-1/3/05H-1316/188w-8/11/08H-1323 - 4/3/12H
8.    4/3/12 – 4/4/12: 45 TD from 1/30/12 low, 90 TD from 11/25/11 low,
9.    4/4/12 Mercury Direct
10.    4/4/12 is 180 degrees form 10/4/11 Low
11.    4/5/12: 03/22/01L + 24 squared weeks = 04/05/12
12.    4/5/12: Bond1 & Ian's 89 TD: 7/1/10L, 11/5/10H, 3/16/11L, 7/22/11H, 11/28/11L, 4/5/12

The 89 TD alternating Cycle: 7/1/10 Low, 11/5/10 High, 3/16/11 Low, 7/22/11 High, 11/28/11 Low, 4/5/12 High?
The 89 TD Cycle has a noticeable alternating High and Low and the next 89 TD cycle is due on 4/5 and the alternation suggests it will be High,

Peter's 1323 Cycle of Highs: 10/7/97H-1323/189w-5/22/01H-1322/189w-1/3/05H-1316/188w-8/11/08H-1323 - 4/3/12H? The 1323 cycle suggests a 4/3/12 High.

The 20 TD Hurst Cycle has a Low around that time: 10/4L- 20 TD- 11/1L -17- 11/25L-16- 12/19L -17-1/13L- 16- 2/07/12L-19- 3/6/12L-19- 4/2/12 Low.

The time cluster is quite large and covers the entire week, which is not of practical use for trading purposes imho, so how can we pinpoint the exact date for the High or Low to occur?

I use Time & Cycle CIT Order of importance: 

1. Solar CITs (84-90% accuracy), then 

2. Geometric CIT (70-80% accuracy)

3. then other CITs, like squares, Astros, etc. 

The 3/31 (Saturday) Solar CIT is the most important turning point, which should be either Friday 3/30, but more likely Monday 4/2 CIT. The intraday cycles suggests Friday and Monday are down biased and would suggests an 4/2 Low and rally the rest of the week.

It is bullish if we decline into these important Time clusters and make an important Low, reverse and rally to continue to higher highs and Vice Versa.

Today, Friday 3/30 I had a 1st hourly CIT, most likely a High.

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT Times 3/30/12: 1st hour, 11.25, 12.35, 2.45 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.30 High

Intraday Cycle: (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.40L

Actual: 9.30 High.

There is another Major fixed Cycle due around 4/20, which is the next important date to watch

Has the Bond markets topped out?

The Bond markets were in the news recently as it dropped sharply last week,  as long term Interest rates spiked up, right at trend line support at the Friday 3/16 CIT (change in Trend), We bottomed 1 TD later on Monday 3/19. It has key Down trend line resistance at 138.00, and declining daily, a close above which is bullish. 
However, a drop below the recent 3/19 Lows at 135.05 would be bearish.

Other Daily CITs to watch are: 3/28, 4/12, 6/12, 6/27, 6/29

There is a regular 93 week Cycle in the Bond market, which is next due around the 7/13/12 week.

The Monthly Bonds is in a long term (Red) Up channel. There is a 73 Month cycle due in February 2012, but may have shifted into a 75 Month cycle due in July 2012.

2012 is a bulish Year, but watch out for the 2013-15 Bear Years

On March 2nd, I mentioned a 120 Year Mega Crash cycle, that tops out on March 2012 and ends in July 2013 Major Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/03/229-high-and-120-year-mega-crash-wave.html

Some were lead to believe that this 120 year fixed Cycle was the main Cycle I was watching, which is not correct. The 120 year crash cycle is just one cycle of the many cycles I watch and it is not the most dominant right now. I posted it, as it was an interesting Cycle to note, but cycles expand and contract all the time , like the Universe and This cycle should expand to a later date imho.

In fact, 2012 should be a  volatile, but bullish year. I have many reasons to believe 2012 will end positive. Here are some reasons for a bullish 2012 and a bearish 2013-2015

1. The Master cycle suggests alot of volatility for 2012, but overall we should see a bullish 2012.
2. The January Barometer has good statistical odds and suggests 2012 should be a bullish year and supports the MC2 outlook.
3. The February effect, like the January effect is also bullish for 2012.

4. The election year cycle is generally bullish for 2012.
5. The Annual Forecast model is generally bullish for 2012.
6. The Chinese astrology is based on the 12 year Jupiter cycle and is bullish for 2012.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-23/markets/30654672_1_dragon-goat-houses

2012 is the year of the dragon and is bullish
2013 is the year of the Snake and is bearish
2014 is the year of the Horse and is bearish
2015 is the year of the Goat (sheep) and is bearish
 

In Chinese Astrology, which is the 12 year Jupiter Cycle, 2012 tends to bullish and 2013-2015 tends to be bearish.  Amazingly, this is the same findings of the 40 year depression Cycle.

The 40 year Depression Cycle
Bruce Larson at the Time & Cycles forum (http://www.timeandcycles.com) posted this:
"The poster below depicts the 1893 panic (120 years ago)

1893-1898 depression
1930-1933 Great Depression
!973-1975 Great Recession
All 40 years apart"

The next 40 year Cycle is 1973-75 + 40 years = 2013-15! 

Conclusion: The 120 year Cycle as well as the 40 year Cycle  and the Chines Astrology based 12 year Jupiter Cycle suggests trouble ahead between 2013 and 2015, but 2012 should still be a bullish year.

The Master Cycle2 update and Gann360's Symmetry chart

"So far the 2/29 MC High and 2/29 geometric and Apex CIT (Change in Trend) still stands.  

There is a 3/3 Solar CIT that is ideally a lower retest High today. We should now at least see a multi week decline begin."

The 2/29 Master Cycle High was a Bulls-eye Hit. We got a final confirmation with today's decline that 2/29 was the High for this move. The wedge formation suggests a sharp decline. First major support to overcome is 1337-40 SPX, the 2/10-15 swing low.

Take a look at Gann360's chart (click on chart to enlarge, you can follow "Gann360" on Twitter), who is a member of our T&C forum:

This is the symmetry point:

6/20/2010:
1. +471 CD = 10/4/11L, -471 CD = 3/6/09L
2. +619 CD = 2/29/12H ,-618 CD = 10/10/08L
3. +678 CD = 8/11/08H, -678 CD = 4/28/12 High/Low?

The 2/29 High and the 120 Year Mega Crash wave

In my 2/26 Master Cycle (MC) update I posted:  "The updated Master Cycle2 (MC2), since the 12/19/11 Lows projected a 68 Calendar Day rally into 2/25 High (2/24-27) or a 48 Trading Day rally into 2/29 High, which is both a 2/29 geometric CIT and a VIX Apex CIT."

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/02/master-cycle-update.html 

So far the 2/29 MC High and 2/29 geometric and Apex CIT (Change in Trend) still stands.  

There is a 3/3 Solar CIT that is ideally a lower retest High today. We should now at least see a multi week decline begin.

The 120 Year Cycle is the Vedic Master Cycle and 2 X Gann's 60 Year Cycle.

In Vedic Astrology, all major and minor planetary cycles repeats every 120 years and major events tend to repeat every 120 years. 

There was a stock market crash that started from a March 1892 High = March 2012 High and saw a major multi month Panic into July 1893 +120 years = July 2013. 

This became known as the Panic of 1893 and led to 4 years of depression.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893). 1892 (click on chart to enlarge) = 2012 and suggests: March 2012 major High and a Mega crash lower into July 2013 Major Low of Year.

The Master Cycle update

In my last post, I mentioned the rally is ending soon, but so far we have not seen any confirmation of a change in trend to down yet, as all trends remains firmly up.

This past week we were up +4.51 SP's as we continued sideways to higher in a potential narrowing wedge, which suggests we should see a relatively sharp break once complete.

The Master Cycle needed to be fine tuned and updated to incorporate the current rally phase. 

The updated Master Cycle2 (MC2), since the 12/19/11 Lows projected a 68 Calendar Day rally into 2/25 High (2/24-27) or a 48 Trading Day rally into 2/29 High, which is both a 2/29 geometric CIT and a VIX Apex CIT. 

The Master Cycle2, in Cyan (click on chart to enlarge):

1.    10/4/11 Major Low

2.    12/19/11 Major higher Low

3.    1/30/12 higher Low

4.    02/24-29 Major swing High

There are several other reasons to look for a 2/24-29 High:

1.  2/24 is 45 TD 12/19/11 Low

2.  2/24 is 55 TD  12/05/11 High

3.  224 is 81 TD, 9 squared 10/27/11 High

4.  2/28 is 100 TD, 10 squared 10/4/11 Low

5 . 2/24 is 121 TD, 11 squared 8/31/11 High

6.  2/25 is 144 CD,  12 squared 10/4/11 Low

7.  2/25 is 233 CD 7/7/11 High

8.  2/28 is 750 TD 3/6/09 Low

9.  2/27 is 40 squared 10/11/07 High

10. 2/28 is 33 squared 3/6/09 Low

We should see a sharp break after this 2/24-29 High is complete, but we need to see a clear downside reversal to confirm that the highs are in.

The rally phase is ending soon

On 2/3 I updated in the comments section of this blog:

"The 1/30 Low was a brief swing Low, we are now in another rally phase."

We are nearing the final Master Cycle 2 High, but as the market has been relentless to the upside and all trends remain up, it is best to wait for a downside confirmation, given by the Master Cycle 2 before getting aggressively short. 

The VIX is currently at 18.70, right at its Key DTL. The VIX is in a bullish descending triangle, when it breaks to the upside, it will be bearish for stocks.  Key Daily DTL resistance at 18.63 is Make or Break (MOB) trend line Resistance. This should be watched closely.

The time is coming for a wild futures ride.  Be prepared.

Please note: The 2012 Master Cycle stock market forecast is due this 2/10-12 weekend.

Please remember, in order to qualify for the 2012 Master Cycle forecast, it takes a 3 Month or longer subscription commitment. For more information:
  http://www.timeandcycles.com/premiumservices.html