In the Feb 23 public blogpost, we mentioned the secret ingredient in many crash waves and
in the Feb 9 public blogpost, we discovered a historic dominant active cycle that is repeating and is +/-3 TD (Trading Days). For a historic cycle to be "active", it has to have atleast 3-5 direct "hits", ie repeating historic Highs and Lows. Currently this cycle has 13 hits. These cycles are rare and not found often, probably due to manipulation. They are Time Cycles and does not always predict Price magnitude.
From my 2/23 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The active cycle suggests volatility, but is generally lower into a 3/4 Low, Shorter term, we see a 2/23L (#1, see chart), 2/24H (#2), decline into 2/26L (#3), 1 day rally into 3/1H (#4) and decline into 3/4L (#5)"
Actual: From the 2/16H, we saw a 2/23L, 2/24H, 2/26L, 3/1H and 3/4L, all +/-0 TD.
This active cycle has a variance of +/-3 TD and it currently has 13 hits so far:
1. 03/23/20L-3
2. 06/08/20H-3
3. 09/02/20H+1
4. 09/24/20L+1
5. 10/12/20H+3
6. 10/30/20L+0
7. 01/04/21L-2
8. 01/15/21L-3
9. 02/11/21HH+ 1 1/4 TD = 2/16/21HH
10. 02/23/21L+0
11. 02/24/21H+0
12. 02/26/21L+0
13. 03/01/21H+0
14. 03/04/21L+/-0?
Conclusion: The markets have been unfolding as the dominant active cycle predicted with surprising mysterious precision with the last 4 Highs and Lows being +/-0, which has been a fortune making feat, however we still do not expect perfection in any future forecast and trade as it can be generally off by +/-3 TD.
What's next: The dominant active cycle is looking for a 3/4 short term Low, but Volatility should continue, as the largest moves are yet to come.
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