Cycle Update: 9/17H, 9/19L, Up into 9/24H

From last weekend's 9/15 email: "The active cycle suggests  a rally into 9/17H, decline into 9/19 Low, rally into 9/24 High, all +/- 1 TD"

Actual: 9/14 High (-1), 9/20 Low (+1), next is Up into 9/24 cycle High.
The 9/17 Cycle High, arrived 1 TD earlier at the 9/14 High and the 9/19 Low arrived 1 hour later, in the 1st hour of 9/20 Low at 1449.98 SPX. We then reversed higher and rallied the rest of the day, closing at 1460.26 SPX yesterday. The rally phase should continue today.

What's next: We should continue to rally into 9/24 cycle High, before the next pullback.
Overall we should be higher into end of the year, with some sharp pullbacks along the way.
October should be full of surprises for many, but 2012 should end on an Up note.

Cycle Update: 9/10 High, 9/11 Low, up into 9/17 High

From the Daily Email 9/12 update:
"The recent active Cycle found, has been in the markets for over 5 months now, since the 4/2/12 High has seen many high Quality solid hits, with no Inversions (which is ideal) and all Pivots, all predicted Highs and Lows are often exact or +/- 1 TD and suggests the 9/11 Solar CIT was a LOW and we should rally into 9/17-18 Solar CIT.  I have not found a cycle this precise in many months. It suggests tomorrow 9/13 (Fed Day) will be a strong Up day and is Up into 9/17H"

This Cycle predicts: 9/10H,  9/11L, next is up into 9/17 High.

Actual: 9/10 High, 9/11 Low, Strong Up on FED Day as predicted and higher ever since the 9/11 Low.

I have not found a cycle this precise and active in many months.

Normal cycles versus Master Cycles 

With any of the Master Cycle and other cycles that are considered "active", all predicted Highs and Lows are +/- 1 TD.

The main rule that I use is the Cycle is not considered active, ie it will be incorrect,  if it exceeds this 1 TD variance of predicted Highs and Lows.

The benefit is you will know right away if the cycle is incorrect within 1-2 Trading days. If the Cycle is not active it should not be used for future predictions of Highs and Lows.

Other "normal" cycles, does not have this kind of accuracy, as all of them are +/- a couple of weeks.

Review and the 2012 T&C annual forecast

From last weekend's Email 9/1 forecast:  "The dominant Master Cycle suggests 9/1 High, 9/5 Lows of the week, then higher into Friday 9/7H"

Actual: The markets made an 8/31 High, dropped into 9/4 Low of the week and is now retesting  the 8/21 Highs today, 9/6.

The break above the mini sideways channel projects to a 1434 SPX target, which has been my long term target, where wave A = C = 1434.44 SPX (click on weekly chart to enlarge)

Wave A=7/1/10L-5/2/11H =359.67 SPX (360 degrees in price)

Wave C = 10/4/11L at 1074.77 + 359.67 = 1434.44 SPX

This  is likely by the 9/7 Master Cycle High.

So what is next?

The question is will the markets stop there?

The answer is Yes, but only for some time, before we make higher Highs.

In  my 2012 annual forecast, I had a rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs (Change in Trend), covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which became the Monday 6/4/12 Low right at the Open. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/06/long-term-timing-points.html

This 6/4/12 Low became the 187 week Cycle Low that was posted on my blog back in June 2012.  http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/06/long-term-crash-panic-cycle-critical.html

There is a Time and Cycle cluster mentioned in the annual forecast due right around the important November Elections that should be important to watch.

In my 2012 annual forecast, since the beginning of the year, for many reasons, had 2012 as an up year, which has been the case so far.

August Major High?

From last weekend's Email: "The forecast is an 8/17-20 Solar CIT High, down into 8/22- geometric and 8/23 Solar CIT Low of the week"

Actual: We made a 8/21 High(+1 TD) and declined into 8/23 Solar CIT Low of the week.

What's next: 8/23 Solar CIT is most likely an 8/23-24 Low, which is the 10 TD Hurst Low.

We should rally into the next Solar CIT High.

The VIX weekly on 8/20 touched major long term triple horizontal channel support.

The last 3 VIX Trendline Lows were near major stock Market Highs:

1. April 2010 Major High,  

2. April - May 2011 Major High

3. March-April 2012 Major Highs

4. August 2012 Major Highs?

Mars and the Vedic Dragon aspect next due on 10/2/12

Review:

The August 1st week Square and static Cycle mentioned here:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-august-square-static-cycle-cluster.html
was a 7/24 major Low and 8/2 higher Low.

The important 93 week Bond market cycle was the 7/25 Interest Rate Low and Bond High:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/08/did-we-see-major-interest-rate-bottom.html

The markets has since touched make or Break resistance and closed right on it last week.

I have written about the Mars and the Vedic Dragon (Rahu=the Moon’s North Node) aspects in the past (Email me for the pdf report at timeandcycles@gmail.com). 

More recently the Mars Rahu (Moon’s North Node) hard aspects (Red lines) has been turning the markets and the next one is due on 10/2/12.

Mars 180 True Node 07/23/2011 17:34 was the 7/21/11 major High
Mars 090 True Node 12/13/2011 06:12 was the 12/19/11 major Low
Mars 090 True Node 03/19/2012 18:30 was the 4/2/12 major High
Mars 090 True Node 04/30/2012 23:30 was the 5/1/2012 secondary High
Mars 000 True Node 10/02/2012 15:06
Mars 090 True Node 01/24/2013 19:48
Mars 180 True Node 05/13/2013 05:46

The August Square & Static Cycle cluster

There are an unusual 10 cluster of Squares centered around August 6^th +/-

10 Squares due in the 1^st week of August

1. Squares from 7/8/32L + 171^2 =7/29/12

2. Squares from 4/2/12H + 11^2 = 8/1/12

2. Squares from 8/27/10L + 22^2 = 8/2/12

3. Squares form 3/17/08L + 40^2 = 8/3/12

4. Squares from 7/18/06L+ 47^2 = 8/4/12

5. Squares from 11/13/12SE – 10^2 = 8/5/12

6. Squares from 7/1/10L + 23^2 TD = 8/6/12

7. Squares from 4/26/2010H + 24^2 TD = 8/7/12

8. Squares from 10/11/07H +42^2 = 8/9/12

9. Squares from 4/26/10H +29^2 = 8/14/12

Every one of these squares have produced major Highs and Lows in the past.

A few examples from the list above:

# 4 (above): Squares from 7/18/06 Major Low

43^2 = 8/10/11 => 08/09/11 major Low

44^2= 11/5/11 => 10/27/11 High

45^2= 2/2/12 => 1/30/12 Low

46^2 = 5/3/12 => 05/01/12 major High

47^2 = 08/04/12

#6 (above): Squares from 7/1/10L

441 TD 3/30/12 => 4/2/12 major High

484 TD 6/1/12 => 6/04/12 major Low

529 TD è 8/6/12

There are also an unusual 10 static/fixed cycles (click on charts to enlarge) all due around 8/6-10 week

 

The 53 TD Cycle of Lows:  5/2/11H, 7/18/11L, 10/4/11L, 12/19/11L, 3/6/12L, 5/18/12L, 8/6/12

The 32/64 TD cycle: 3/16/11L, 5/2/11H, 6/16/11L, 8/1/11H, 9/16/11H, 11/11/11L, 12/19/11L…6/21/12L, 8/6/12

The regular 106 TD Cycle: 7/1/10L-11/29/10L-5/2/11H-10/4/11L-3/6/12L-8/6/12

The 89 TD Cycle is next due on 8/8

7/1/10L, 11/5/10H, 3/16/11L, 7/21/11H, 11/25/11L, 4/2/12H, 8/8/12

 The 177 TD Cycle: 10/21/09H, 7/1/10L, 3/16/11L, 11/25/11L, 8/8/12

 The 216 TD Cycle: 3/6/09L, 1/14/10H, 11/29/10L, 10/4/11L, 8/8/12

The 36 week Cycle of Lows is due in the 8/3/12 week +/-1 wk: 11/2/09L – 7/1/10L – 3/16/11L -11/25/11L – 8/3/12 week.

 The next 66 week Cycle = 5/2/11H -33 wks-12/19/11L-33 wks-  8/8/12 wk

11 week Cycle: 11/29/10L-2/18/11H-5/2/11H-7/22/11H-10/4/11L-12/19/12L-3/6/12L-

5/22/1L2-8/7/12 wk

22 week/150-55 CD Cycle: 9/2/09L--2/5/10L-7/1/10L--11/29/10L--5/2/11HH--10/4/11L-3/6/12L-8/7/12 wk

55 week/385 CD Cycle: 5/19/08H -388- 6/11/09H-385-7/1/10L-385-7/21/11H-385-8/9/12 wk

Did we see a major Interest Rate Bottom and Bond market High?

The weekly Bond markets Interest Rates saw a regular 93 week cycle major Low (and Bond High) at the 7/25 Low at 24.52, piercing below the double bottom at 25.10-25.19. 

The weekly Bonds are in a descending triangle and needs to close above it at 29.70 to be bullish.   A solid breakout above the descending triangle would confirm a major Interest Rate Bottom and Bond market High is in place, until then, we can still fall back to lower Interest rates.

Cycle Update: 7/19 High, 7/25 Low

From the previous post: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/07/cycle-update-712l-719-20h.html: "The next couple of weeks should be interesting to watch and will determine the direction of the next couple of months afterwards."

From last weekend's 7/20 Email: "The 3 active cycles,  so far agreed on the 7/3H, 7/12L and 7/19H and all agree we see at least a 7/25 Low, where the 10 TD Hurst cycle Low is due, but then these cycles diverge."

From the 7/25 daily Email: "The 7/23 Solar CIT and 7/25 geometric CIT could have been a 7/24 Low... The speculative path indicates July 25 Low and up into XXX"

Result: The markets saw a 7/24 Low of the week, fulfilling the 7/23 Solar and 7/25 geometric CIT. Globex was lower on 7/25 and reversed strongly the rest of the week.  

The rally was stronger than expected, but remains within a large 60 SP sideways channel since the 6/19 High (see SPX Daily above), for the last 5 weeks now, with major channel resistance at 1392-1396 SPX  in  the coming week.  

In the mean time, 2 cycles remains dominant with the 7/24-25 Low. The coming week will be most interesting to watch closely as very large moves are forecasted by these 2 dominant cycles.

Cycle Update: 7/12L, 7/19-20H

From the last post http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/07/cycles-update-72-3-high-down-to-711-12.html: "So Far, so good, we topped out on 7/3 cycle High and are now down into 7/11-12 Time CIT and Master Cycles Low. We should see a rally into Option Expiration week."

The Banks had a triple  7/11 CIT, which was the 7/12 Low and has rallied ever since. The Banks has an 8/23 CIT.

 We made a 7/12 SPX Low and have rallied strongly into OE week as expected.


So what is next?
The next couple of weeks should be interesting to watch and will determine the direction of the next couple of months afterwards.

Cycles Update: 7/2-3 High, down to 7/11-12 Low

From 2 weeks ago and in the 7/2 weekend Email: 

"This rally should complete ideally into the 7/2-3 Solar, geometric and Time and Price Square"
"Various Master Cycles General Bias: 7/2-3H, down to 7/11 Low"

On the last public blogpost on 7/3:

 'There are some Master Cycles (MC) that are active right now. To supplement the Master Cycles, We look at the various markets that has important Time CIT turning points:

The next major Time CIT to watch is on: 7/11-12, that is a triple CIT in the Banks (see chart above), a Solar and a geometric CIT."

 

and more recent via email: "Shorter term the 10 TD Hurst Cycle has topped out and we are now down into 7/11 Lows +/-2. The Banks has a triple 7/11 CIT and there is a 7/11 Solar and geometric CIT there as well, ideally a Low"

So Far, so good, we topped out on 7/3 cycle High and are now down into 7/11-12 Time CIT and Master Cycles Low. We should see a rally into Option Expiration week.

Cycles, the Banks and the US Dollar Time CITs

All Cycles in general expand and contract, the only exception is when the Master Cycles are active, they predict precise Highs and Lows. All cycles in general though are not that precise, like the 187 week Cycle that has either contracted or expanded as it was looking for a 6/25 week major Low (see previous posts).

There are some Master Cycles (MC) that are active right now. To supplement the Master Cycles, We look at the various markets that has important Time CIT turning points:

The next major Time CIT to watch is on: 7/11-12, that is a triple CIT in the Banks (see chart above), a Solar and a geometric CIT. The Banks has resistance at 47.20 and also has a 8/23-24 Time and Cycle CIT.

The Dollar Chart had a fixed 75 TD Cycle that was due on 6/29.

The Dollar Time CITs are on 7/23 and 8/3

Review of the 187 week Panic cycle and what's next

From the previous post: "Of course, all cycles do expand and contract, but it is interesting that there is an unusual 6/22-26 Time & Cycle Cluster in the coming Panic Cycle week."

The  recent 6/22-26 Time Cluster was the 6/25 Low of the week, which was a solid hit. The previous Time Cluster was the triple Long term CIT due on Friday 6/1, which was the Monday 6/4 Major Low.   Both Time clusters were direct hits and important Lows.

The regular 187 week Panic Cycle due this past week has either contracted to 184.5 weeks to the 6/4 Major Low or will expand into the near by future date as we saw on the 5/22/01 High, which was one of the 186 week Cycle dates. This makes the July Month an interesting month to watch.

There are some upcoming Time & Cycle Clusters in the month of July that should be important Highs and Lows to monitor. The current active Master Cycles focuses on 3 important July Dates in the nearby future. The Banks has an upcoming triple Time & Cycle CIT cluster that should mark an important turning point. It should cause some large price movements.

The long term Crash & Panic cycle: A critical time to watch

From my last post: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2012/06/long-term-timing-points.html

"I now have another important Long term NDX CIT coming up that should mark an important High or Low. This date is also supported by a Solar CIT on this date. Again if we rally into this date, it will become an important High and if we decline into this date, it will become an important Low. 

My current cycles indicate we are still in a long term Panic window and this date will be an important High or Low to watch."

The amazing Panic cycle: 

10/11/90L-181- 04/4/94L -186-10/28/97L-186-05/22/01H => 4 Month shift!   

09/21/01L-187-4/20/05L-187-11/21/08L-187- 6/25/12L/H?

The long term Panic Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is the regular 186-187 week Cycle that has some of the biggest crashes in the last 2 decades and is next due in the coming 6/25 week.  

This 187 crash cycle was one of the main reasons I was expecting a major secondary 6/1-4 High, where I had 3 long term timing CITs, but as we declined into this timing CIT, it became an intermediate 6/4 Low and the cycles were proven incorrect.  

Of course, all cycles do expand and contract, but it is interesting that there is an unusual Time & Cycle Cluster in the coming 3 Trading Day window, starting with this Friday 6/22 geometric and Solar timing CIT (Change in Trend) cluster and into Tuesday 6/26 long term NDX geometric and Solar CIT, which falls within the Panic cycle window. This Time window is also supported by some important Astro CITs:  6/24: Uranus Square Pluto, 6/25 Saturn goes direct, 6/27 Venus goes Direct, making these coming 3 days a critical time to watch.

It is entirely possible that this 6/22-26 T&C Cluster window will become an important High instead, like we once did in one of the 186-87 week Crash cycles, back on May 22 2001 High (see chart), before we saw the infamous 9/11 Crash.  

 

Long Term Timing Points

Precise Timing is Everything in this Business.

I use 2 proprietary Timing techniques to help me pinpoint future "Change in Trend" (CIT) Dates. One is "Geometric" CITs and the other that I have found highly accurate over time are "Solar" CITs. A CIT could be a High or a Low. The rule is, if we rally into the CIT date and reverse out of it, it will be a High and if we decline into the CIT Date, and reverse out of it, it will be a Low.

Since early January 2012,  I had a rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs, covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which became the Monday 6/4/12 Low right at the Open.  Originally I was looking for a 6/1-4 secondary High, but as we declined into it, it became a 6/4 Low and the cycles were proven incorrect.  We have now rallied for 2 weeks ever since this important 6/4 Low.

I now have another important Long term NDX CIT coming up that should mark an important High or Low. This date is also supported by a Solar CIT on this date. Again if we rally into this date, it will become an important High and if we decline into this date, it will become an important Low. 

My current cycles indicate we are still in a long term Panic window and this date will be an important High or Low to watch.