Mini Crash Cycle and Tunnel Price Target

 

From 1/14 (10 days ago) Forecast Update: "The potential crash cycle I am watching had 1/13H and the crash wave is into XXX major Low."

Actual: We are seeing the largest decline since 3/20/20L, from 1/04/22 major Time and Cycle cluster High (see previous blog posts), we have declined 546.83 SP's and counting so far today, which is what the mini crash cycle suggested, which remains active and suggests the decline continues. 

The 1/04/22 Time and Cycles Cluster High got additonal confirmation by slicing through the 10/4/21 Low at 4278 SPX, opening the door to an even sharper decline.

There is now a proprietary Brock's Tunnel Price target of 4216.04 SPX. This doesn't mean we can't go lower ofcourse.

The mini crash cycle had a 1/4/22H, 1/10L, 1/12H, 1/18L and an intraday 1/19H and a close near its Lows, which we saw 1/20, before the decline continues into  XXX major Low.

6..45 pm Update:  This was in last night's email and this morning's Update:

"Technically, we have declined into 1/24 Bitcoin, 1/24 RUT & 1/24 Midpoint MeR&D CIT, suggesting a short term 1/24L, so be ready to TMAR (Take the Money and Run)"

1/21/22 Intraday Time and Cycles Forecast Versus Actual

Intraday Time Forecast: 1/21/22 Intraday Time Change in Trend (CITs, High or Low) are +/-5-10 min and are 80% accurate: Open, 9.50, 11.20, 1.10 pm Eastern.

Current Bias: "We see an Open 9.30 Low, rally to a 9.50 High, decline & rally to a 11.20 High and another 1.10 pm High"

Actual Time CITs: 9.35H, 9.50H, 11.25HOD, 1.15H

Intraday  Cycles Forecast: "Intraday Cycle are the Pink lines: 

(9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.40L

The intraday cycle sees a 9.40H at the 9.50 time CIT, decline to a 10.20 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 11.15 cycle High at the 11.20 time CIT, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at the 1.10 time CIT, rally to a 2.00 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.40 cycle Low+/-30 min."

Actual Cycle: 9.35H, 10.25L, 11.25HOD, 1.00L, 1.15H, 3.30LOD

1/04/22 Time and Cycle Cluster High

 

Tom Mahoney from https://www.timesymmetry.com/index.htm,  who is also on the T&C Forum (https://groups.io/g/Timeandcycles) has his dominant 1422 CD (Calendar Day) Cycle (see chart above), which was again due 1/9/22. 

980 TD (Trading Day) Cycle: 9/1/98L-977- 7/24/02L - 980- 6/14/06L -980-6/5/10 Flash Crash - 1955 (2X 977.5) - 2/9/18L -982- 01/04/22H

What was interesting is that his 1422 CD Cycle is a 980 TD+/-3 TD Cycle that was the 1/04/22H. This in addition to the cluster of 334, 371 & 556 weekly cycles that was the 1/04/22H, mentioned in early January 2022, giving it more importance. Yesterday we closed below the Trapdoor to Hell support, which was final confirmation that the above cluster of cycles are valid.

The NDX is already below their Trapdoor and 1 1/2 year channel support.

The Russel 2000 is not only below its red Trapdoor channel support, but also below its 200 DMA and its 360 DMA.

Bitcoin topped out at the 11/5-8 T&C Cluster, which included the 75 week Flash Crash Cycle and has been in a red down channel eversince.

1/21/22 Intraday Time Change in Trend (CITs, High or Low) are +/-5-10 min and are 80% accurate: Open, 9.50, 11.20, 1.10 pm Eastern.

Bottomline: Markets have given additional evidence that 1/04/22 was an important swing High and we are headed sharply lower over the short term.

At long term channel support, will it hold?

 

Long term Green channel support was tested today in both the NDX and SPX, which is good for a short term rally, but will this channel support hold?

The 334, 371 and 556 week cycles may have been the 1/04/22H

The 334, 371 and 556 week cycles may have been the 1/04/22H

Happy and Prosperous New Year to all

We have been sideways since the 11/5-8/21H, which remains the All time Highs (ATH) in many indices and market leaders like the Russel, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tesla. The Dow made marginally fresh ATH on 12/30 and is at a potential double top with the 11/5-8H.

There is a 334 week cycle due 12/24/21 week+/-, although it only has 3 hits so far.

The Master Cycle is now active again and will guide us in 2022.

Happy and Prosperous New Year

Merry Christmas 🎄 🎁 and Happy Holidays to all 🙏🏼

 The market bottomed at the 12/20 T&C Cluster Low at the 12/20 Apple, 12/21 double SPX Time CIT and 10 TD Cycle Lows and we are rallying as expected into the next T&C Cluster.

Merry Christmas 🎄 🎁 and Happy Holidays to all 🙏🏼

The amazing Geometric time CITs

We declined almost 100 SP's in the last 2 days, since the 12/10 High. 

It baffles me that these geometric mathematical formulas to find CITs continue to work even today. I frankly don't know why they work, just that they do  70-80% of the time, ie 20-30% don't work.

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2021/12/forecast-1-short-term-1213-swing-high.html

Review 12/13 Intraday Time and Cycles:

(A): " We will see a 12/10-13 High" (see (A) on chart)

""The current bias (but that can change quickly) is 11.00 will be a Low (1), 11.30 will be a High (2) and 1.10-15 pm will be a Low (3). So if we get an opening 9.40H+/-, we decline into 10.20-11.00 Low (Speculative), rally to a 11.30H+/-, decline to a 1.10-15 pm Low. We see a last hour Low (4)"

Actual: Time CITs (Change in Trend) could be Highs or Lows.

11.00 CIT was a 10.55H, 11.30 CIT was a Low, 1.10-15 CIT was a 11.05H.

The intraday cycle suggested a 1st hour Low (1), midday High (2) and last hour Low (4), which we have generally seen.

Intraday Time and Cycle Updates

 

"The current bias (but that can change quickly) is 11.00 will be a Low, 11.30 will be a High and 1.10-15 pm will be a Low. So if we get an opening 9.40H+/-, we decline into 10.20-11.00 Low (Speculative), rally to a 11.30H+/-, decline to a 1.10-15 pm Low. We see a last hour Low."

11.20 am Update: We got our 9.30H and our expected decline into 11.15 Low so far. The 11.00 CIT (High or Low) was a 10.55H.

December 10-13 short term High

The following short term forecast is speculative and for Entertainment purposes only, do trade at your own risk.

All trends are Up as we recently bottomed at the 49 Trading Day (TD) Cycle of Lows (see Emini SP chart below), we are generally higher and surprises will be to the upside.

We have rallied into Friday 12/10 SPX proprietary Geometric* time CIT (change in Trend) and into Monday 12/13 Apple Geometric time CIT, suggesting a short term 12/13 swing High is being made. We need a reversal and close lower to confirm a 12/13 swing High is in.

The intraday cycles are suggesting a possible spillover rally Monday in the 1st minutes, before we reverse lower.  

Intraday CIT times to watch, all /-5-10 mins are: 11.00, 11.30 and 1.10-15 pm Eastern.

Speculative Intraday Times and Cycles Bias: The current bias (but that can change quickly) is 11.00 will be a Low, 11.30 will be a High and 1.10-15 pm will be a Low. So if we get an opening 9.40H+/-, we decline into 10.20-11.00 Low (Speculative), rally to a 11.30H+/-, decline to a 1.10-15 pm Low. We see a last hour Low.

Apple, the NDX market leader, made fresh All time Highs and all Apple trends are higher. We are rallying into 12/9 & 12/13 CIT, suggesting a short term 12/10-13 High being made, but we need a reversal and close lower to confirm.

Bitcoin, the bubble leader, remains weak and closed lower Friday, below key pink channel support. We are declining into 12/13 Geometric time CIT, suggesting a short term Low.

* Notes: We use 2 proprietary Time CITs (Change in Trend) that are unique to our Raj T&C Daily Email newsletters.

1. Geometric time CITs are +/-1 Trading Day (TD) and are 70-80% accurate (20-30% will not work). 

If we rally into a Geo time CIT, it suggests a High being made +/-1 trading day (TD).

If we decline into a Geo time CIT, it suggests a Low being made +/-1 trading day (TD).

2. Solar time CITs are +/- 1 TD and are 80-90% accurate (10-20% will not work).

To join our free forecasts, subscribe & follow us at: 

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

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Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Free Forecast

The current rally forecast was posted in the evening of 12/7 for subscribers and also the decline and cycle Low that follows it. 

Folks as this is a season of Giving, I will post what our T&C  research suggests is the next Cycle High and Low, if I get 300 likes on this blog and on https://twitter.com/TimeandCycles

Markets and the recent Eclipses

 So far, the Friday 11/19 Lunar Eclipse topped this market on Monday 11/22H and we bottomed on Friday 12/3L at the 12/4 Solar Eclipse.

Reviewing Time & Cycles and what's next

In my post from 11/8/21, I stated: "We rallied into long term channel resistance at 2720-50 SPX and into the 18 wk and 75 wk Flash Crash cycles due to top out now or in the coming week+/-"

The actual results are as follows: 

1. The Dow and Russel 2000 made a Nov. 8 all-time high, and the indices have since seen a sharp decline. 
2. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) made a Nov. 10 all-time high, and saw a sharp decline since.
3. Tesla (TSLA), one of market leaders, made a Nov. 4 all-time high and also declined.
4. The SPX made a Nov. 5 high and double topped with the Nov 22. all-time high.

The Dow saw a Monday Nov. 8 all-time high and it has since experienced a sharp decline.

The Russel 2000 also saw a Nov. 8 all-time high and it has similarly experienced a decline since then.

Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, saw a Nov. 10 all-time high and saw a sharp decline since.

Ethereum, another crypto leader, also saw a Nov. 10 all-time high, and it has seen a decline as well.

Tesla, one of the market leaders, experienced a Nov. 4 all-time high.

The SPX made a Nov. 5 high and double topped with the Nov. 22 all-time high at the 4743.80 level. This was seen at the 66-week cycle, the 266-CD, and the 56-CD cycle. It experienced a sharp decline following this point in time. 

What's Next?

A few weeks ago, we were looking for a Nov. 22 high and a decline into the next 'Time and Cycle Cluster Low,' which appears to still be in progress.

To join our free forecasts, subscribe & follow us at: 

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

https://twitter.com/TimeandCycles

Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com