The bearish view and intraday Times for 5/20

As today may be an important day, based on cycles, etc. perhaps this could be useful to some:

Intraday 5 min CITs (Change in Trend): 10.20-25, 11.30*, 11.40-12.45 hourly (iffy, minor), 12.20, 1.25*, 2.20, 2.45* pm EDT.

2 min CITs (same as above, but more exact): 10.20, 10.28, 11.36, 12.12, 1.16*, 2.50* pm EDT

Speculative biases: 10.20-25H, 11.30L, 12.20H, 1.16-25L*, 2.45-50* HOD 
(HOD = High of the day, if market is weak). 

Generally there is an Up bias for today, but watch the 2.45-50 CIT for an early High and a sharp drop into 5/21 in the 1st hour Low at the 313 cycle. (click on chart to enlarge)

* = Important

Dollar and Euro's

Dollar is going parabolic, nearing Resistance. 
The next 112 is due in Sep 2010.

 









Euro is piercing its down channel.

Euro Daily CITs: 5/25, 7/16.
Euro weekly CIT: 8/6 week, 11/22 week

Crash ahead?

Crash ahead?  First of all, the 635 TD Cycle ( click on chart to enlarge) suggests an intermediate bottom was made on 5/6/10. Of course we could see a retest of the recent Low.

 

The following research below, I first did right after the 5/6 Crash (and posted to subs) says that a Crash after the 5/6/10 Crash is highly unlikely.

Historically, the 5/06/10 Crash week was a rare event. We have not seen this kind of large Price decline since the 10/10/08 week, almost 1 ½ years ago and before that the 9/21/01 week and 4/14/00 Crash week, more than a Decade ago!

Previous comparable Crash weeks:

1. 10/20/87 Crash week had a   66.23 SP range, 23% decline

1. 04/14/00 Crash week had a 187.79 SP range, 12% decline

2. 09/21/01 Crash week had a 145.00 SP range, 13% decline

3. 10/10/08 Crash week had a 257.76 SP range, 23% decline

4. 05/06/10 Crash week had a 139.34 SP range, 12% decline

Here is some interesting statistics, 1^st mentioned on the evening of 5/6/10:

4/14/00 Crash week, 9/21/01 crash week and 5/6/10 Crash week all saw a 12% decline and:

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L =   525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6

04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low

04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low

04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low

04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD!  ie exactly 7 times the 4/24/00 Crash Low -9/21/01 Crash Low = the 5/6/10 Crash Low! This perfection suggests the Low is already in on 5/6th crash decline Low.  (Note: We have seen a strong rally ever since)

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Are the Lows in already?

I mentioned in a proprietary Crash Research to T&C Email Members, there is solid evidence that the Lows are already in and we should see choppiness and a retest higher Low in the coming days, before we head higher into OE week. IF we rally into the 5/11 Major CIT instead, it will be a High or Vice Versa.

For Monday, there is now a double CIT at 11.56 am and an Apex of the triangle at 12.52 pm tomorrow. Also watch the 10.35-11.40 hourly CIT and other 5 min CITs: 1.00-05, 1.55, 2.40 pm for clues. We are in a wave 3 or C rally up.

Who called this past week's decline?

There were about 10 people that predicted and posted in advance, the 4/26 High and this past week's severe decline. We who have been in this business long enough, knows this is NOT an easy task to do.  Here is just one example below of Tom Mahoney's chart he posted weeks before. It is a work of Art and Simplicity.

http://csiwallstreet.com

Intraday Times and Cycles

General trend is still down into 5/11 Major Lows. We are deeply oversold, so we should see short term rallies here and there intraday,

The 10.20 CIT was the 10.28 Low.

Other CITs are: 12.00, 12.15, 1.35 pm

On the 2min chart they are: 11.52, 12.16, 12.26, 1.38 pm.

12 reasons for a 5/11/10 Major Time and Cycle Cluster Low

5/11/10 is now clustering in a big big way, it is the next Major Time and Cycle Cluster Low:

1. The next Solar CIT is on 5/11.

2. The triple Geometric CIT is on 5/11.

3. The Apex of the NDX triangle is on 5/11.

4.  The next Symmetry Point Cycle CIT is on 5/11.

5. The Master Cycle has a 5/12 Low. 

6. The next 120 TD Cycle is on 5/11.

7. The next NDX 66/132 wk cycle is due on the 5/11 wk (see previous post)

8. The 18 TD and 456 hourly correction cycles has a 5/11 Low.

9. WBOE = Wednesday/Week before Option Expiration 5/11 wk

10. Double Hourly CITs are due on 5/10

11. Mercury goes Direct is on 5/11 and Jupiter squares the Galatic centre on 5/12

12. New Moon -2 (associated with past panics) = 5/11/10



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When is the next Major Low?

 The NDX 66 week and many other Cycles suggests next week we should see an important Low

Are Short term Lows in?

I had a 11.15 CIT, Low of the day is at 11.10 am, which was also a minor hourly CIT and right at long term log support. Lots of volatility ahead.

Intraday & Daily Times and Cycles

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/20/10: 10.50, 11.10, 12.15, 11.40-12.45 hourly, 1.00 and 2.15 pm EDT 

As mentioned in the previous post, I had an 4/27-28L, 4/29-30 High, so now I have today and Monday as down days

2 criteria for the trend to turn down

I had 2 criteria for the trend to turn down:

1. The daily SPX trends turned down below 1194 SPX channel/TL support, but that hasn't happened yet for the NDX, which is usually the market leader.

2. We decline more than consecutive 2 TD, something we have not seen since 2/5 Lows.

Shorter term, we should make a 4/27-28 Low, bounce into 4/29-30 Highs and decline into 5/3-5 Lows. Trend is generally down into 5/3-5 Lows.

The 296 Cycle, the 4/17 CIT and the Master Cycle general bias

The 5 min 296 Cycle, that last called the 4/15 High is next due around 12.40 pm today (click on chart to enlarge)

In a previous post, I mentioned that the 4/17 Major CIT was 37 X 37 CD + 7/18/06L

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/04/major-turning-point-soon.html

The 4/17 weekend CIT was either a 4/15 High or a 4/19 Low.
The current bias is it was an 4/19 Low. The 4/19 Low was also a perfect 12/24  TD Hurst Low.
  
The Master Cycle, as most know is bullishly biased through October 2010 and suggests all declines will be short-lived, before heading much higher. 

The Master Cycle (MC) was looking for 2 Lows, one was the 2/5/2010 Low and the other was to be a Mid March Low, which may have arrived 2-3 weeks earlier to the 2/25/2010 Low. 2/25/10 was also confirmed as the 40 TD Cycle Low:

40 TD Lows: 7/8/09L -40- 9/2L -42- 11/2L -41- 12/31L -37- 2/25L

IF the 2/25/10 Low was the reset MC Low, we then had a similar "straight Up" rally that the MC was predicting, as we have seen into the 4/15 High.

Intraday & Daily Times and Cycles

This was sent out last night:

"The next 298 Cycle is due near the close of 4/15, where is there is an hourly CIT. 

The Master Cycle now suggests the following: 4/15/10 High, near the close. 

Swing traders: The geometric 4/15-16 CIT was a 4/15 High and we should see a sell-off into...

The 7/18/06L + 37X37 CD (square)= 4/17/10+/- is the next major CIT.  Any break below 1190 SPX MOB channel support, will trigger a further decline to the Master Cycle Target.

Intraday Cycle:

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/16/10: 10.20, 1.15-20** and 2.30 pm EST

Intraday Cycle: 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.00-30L 

Friday’s bias is a High am to Low pm with a 1^st hour High at the 10.20 CIT, decline to a 12.30 Cycle Low... If the MC is correct, we should close near our Lows tomorrow.