Intraday & Daily Times and Cycles

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/20/10: 10.50, 11.10, 12.15, 11.40-12.45 hourly, 1.00 and 2.15 pm EDT 

As mentioned in the previous post, I had an 4/27-28L, 4/29-30 High, so now I have today and Monday as down days

2 criteria for the trend to turn down

I had 2 criteria for the trend to turn down:

1. The daily SPX trends turned down below 1194 SPX channel/TL support, but that hasn't happened yet for the NDX, which is usually the market leader.

2. We decline more than consecutive 2 TD, something we have not seen since 2/5 Lows.

Shorter term, we should make a 4/27-28 Low, bounce into 4/29-30 Highs and decline into 5/3-5 Lows. Trend is generally down into 5/3-5 Lows.

The 296 Cycle, the 4/17 CIT and the Master Cycle general bias

The 5 min 296 Cycle, that last called the 4/15 High is next due around 12.40 pm today (click on chart to enlarge)

In a previous post, I mentioned that the 4/17 Major CIT was 37 X 37 CD + 7/18/06L

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/04/major-turning-point-soon.html

The 4/17 weekend CIT was either a 4/15 High or a 4/19 Low.
The current bias is it was an 4/19 Low. The 4/19 Low was also a perfect 12/24  TD Hurst Low.
  
The Master Cycle, as most know is bullishly biased through October 2010 and suggests all declines will be short-lived, before heading much higher. 

The Master Cycle (MC) was looking for 2 Lows, one was the 2/5/2010 Low and the other was to be a Mid March Low, which may have arrived 2-3 weeks earlier to the 2/25/2010 Low. 2/25/10 was also confirmed as the 40 TD Cycle Low:

40 TD Lows: 7/8/09L -40- 9/2L -42- 11/2L -41- 12/31L -37- 2/25L

IF the 2/25/10 Low was the reset MC Low, we then had a similar "straight Up" rally that the MC was predicting, as we have seen into the 4/15 High.

Intraday & Daily Times and Cycles

This was sent out last night:

"The next 298 Cycle is due near the close of 4/15, where is there is an hourly CIT. 

The Master Cycle now suggests the following: 4/15/10 High, near the close. 

Swing traders: The geometric 4/15-16 CIT was a 4/15 High and we should see a sell-off into...

The 7/18/06L + 37X37 CD (square)= 4/17/10+/- is the next major CIT.  Any break below 1190 SPX MOB channel support, will trigger a further decline to the Master Cycle Target.

Intraday Cycle:

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/16/10: 10.20, 1.15-20** and 2.30 pm EST

Intraday Cycle: 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.00-30L 

Friday’s bias is a High am to Low pm with a 1^st hour High at the 10.20 CIT, decline to a 12.30 Cycle Low... If the MC is correct, we should close near our Lows tomorrow. 

Major Turning point at hand

There are various reasons for a Major turn soon, here is just one of them:

Squares from 7/18/06L

Squares of CD from 7/18/06 Major Low:

26^2 = 05/24/08 -5 = 05/19/08 Major High 
(26^2=26X26 CD=676CD+7/18/06L=5/24/08, etc.)
27^2 = 07/16/08 -1 = 07/15/08 Major Low
28^2 = 09/09/08 -5 = 09/02/08 Major High
29^2 = 11/05/08 -1 = 11/04/08 Major High
30^2 = 01/03/09+2 = 01/06/09 Major High
31^2 = 03/05/09+1 = 03/06/09 Major Low
32^2 = 05/07/09+1 = 05/08/09 Major high?
33^2 = 07/11/09-3 = 07/08/09 Major Low
34^2 = 09/16/09     = 09/16/09 High
35^2 = 11/24/09+3 = 11/27/09 Dubai Low

36^2 = 2/3/10L +2 = 2/5/10 Major Low

37^2= 37X37 CD =1369 CD + 7/18/06L = 4/17/10

Notice these dates are often +/- 1, 2,3 CD but could also be +/- 5 CD.

Would you buy this market?

There is RSI and MACD Divergences as well

We are near Long term resistance

The 22 Month cycle, a Daily view

Update on the last post: The 3/31 Solar and Geometric CIt was a 3/31 Low.

The 22 Month Cycle February Major Low, a daily view. (click on chart to enlarge)

The time has come

We are now in the 3/31 CIT window, mentioned last week, looking for a High (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/03/331-high.html)

We are starting to see some signs of cracks appearing in the hourly Cycle.

Today should be a "low am to High pm" day.

I have a double hourly CIT coming up. Let's see how we close today.

Gold Time and Cycles

Timing CITs:
4/5, 4/12, 4/26, 5/27

Cycle CITs: There is a regular 100-360 TD Hurst Cycle due in the coming 3/29- 4/1 week:

3/26 = 100 TD 10/30/09L
3/26 = 120 TD 10/02/09L
3/30 = 180 TD 07/13/09L
3/31 = 240 TD 04/17/09L
4/01 = 360 TD 10/24/08L

There is a regular Fibonacci 55 week cycle due Late August- Early September 2010.

Price Support resistance CITs: 1042, 1017 and 1001.

Gold is in a wave C or final E wave down and once complete we should see the bullish trend resume. Longer term Gold should head much higher.

3/31 High

The market keeps chopping higher, despite brief setbacks, frustrating both the Bulls and the Bears.

After a close study of the Master Cycle SERIES, they all suggest a 3/31 HIGH, before a more serious decline starts.

3/31 is the next Solar CIT, which is 84-90% accurate. 3/31 is also the next Geometric CIT, which is 70-80% accurate.

Combining these 2 Timing Solar and Geometric CIT along with the Master Cycle Series suggesting a 3/31 high, gives me a high confidence that the 3/31 Major Timing CIT will be High, before a stronger decline starts.

Let's make a note of this date and see how it unfolds.

US $Dollar Time and Cycles

Time CIT: Next Major Daily US$Dollar CIT: 3/26-29, 4/16 and Major 5/12-13.

Cycle CIT:There is a regular 112 TD Cycle, mostly Lows, next due around 4/13 +/-.

Price CIT: 81.90=50%, 83.72, the 62% retrace. Weekly and Monthly Down TL Resistance is around 86, right at the 78.6% retrace at 86.32.

There is a Long term US$Dollar 80-82 week Cycle Low on November 2009 Low.

See also previous post on Gold&Dollar here:

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-dollar-cycles.html

The Master Cycle and the 22 Month Cycle

The Master Cycle (MC) needs 2 more "hits", ie a future Highs and a Lows in the next few weeks, to confirm the MC is active once again.

The general bias is bullish based on other Cycles as well, including the 22 Month cycle (click on chart to enlarge), which bottomed on 2/5/2010 Low along with the MC.

If the Master Cycle is correct, pullbacks will be minimal for much higher prices.

It should be a Bear grinder all the way higher.

There will be brief pullbacks, lasting a few days to a week or so, like today.

The MC suggests all pullbacks should be used to get long.

The MC 2010 Update

The Master Cycle (MC) called for a 2/8/2010 Major Low of the year (see previous posts). The actual Low arrived 1 TD earlier on the 2/5/2010 Low. The MC was then looking for a strong rally into early March and a retrace of that Low by Mid March Low, before heading generally much Higher.

From the MC 2010 Forecast:
"1. The MC can be correct and exact sometimes predicting exact swing Highs and lows for many days, weeks and months at a time. In this time you might tend to “fall in Love” with this cycle and be impressed with its accuracy, but Caveat Emptor.
2.At other times, the MC can and will be flat out wrong. For some unknown reason, the MC fades, inverts or becomes dormant. This could last for days, weeks and even months. It is best to use it only when it is “active”. I define a cycle to be active when it gets 3 “Hits”, ie when it gets 3 Highs and Lows correct. When it is inactive, I simply don’t use it. I use my other Time & Cycle work to tell me what is happening. It is best to be patient and wait until it becomes active again and then trade on it as it tends to be very precise, as can be seen in the many examples above.
3. The MC does not always follow the predicted Price magnitude, ie the actual Price rally/decline could be a whole lot bigger/smaller than the forecasted Price rally/decline as shown on the forecasted chart."

The MC didn't see the expected sharp decline into 3/15L this time, but a much higher 3/15 Low (see chart, Red line is correct, blue line = wrong). In this case we didn't see the same Price magnitude decline. For now the MC has been put on hold. From the 3/15 Low, it is forecasting future Highs and Lows, which I will be updating for subscribers and I will be watching patiently to see if the MC becomes active once again.