3/24 Cycle Highs

3/24 predicted Highs still stands and we're currently down -10 today

The 10.45 CIT was a 10.50 LOD sofar.

The remaining 2 CITs at 2.15 and 2.45 pm EST should be highs.

We should close on our Lows, we are on our way to our expected lows in a couple of days...

Warning signs

There were warning signs for the current breakdown. Staying consistently below the 200 DMA and staying 8 weeks below the Trapdoor to Hell were some of them. Breaching the Long term SPX Monthly uptrend channel (Click on chart to enlarge) was another bearish indicator.
As mentioned before, the Series of Cycles predicted at the beginning of the year, a January Low, February High and April 08 Low (and more). The detailed series was pretty good too: 1/23L, 2/13H, 2/26H, 3/5H, 3/11L, 3/13L, 3/14H... Lower Lows are out there. The decline is not over quite yet.

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The Trapdoor to Hell Part 2

Ever since I first mentioned the Trapdoor to Hell triple Resistance @1370-90 SPX area (click on chart to enlarge) more than 6 weeks ago, it has proved to be Major Resistance for any rallies, which suggests we remain in a weak and dangerous market.
The market needs to prove this is anything different than a bear rally by first of all taking out the 1395 SPX Resistance, as long as we stay under this, the market remains weak and bearish.

Our Market leader, the weekly NDH has broken below its long term weekly channel. If we have weekly close below this channel and below the 1/23/08 Lows @ 1698 NDH/QQQQ 41.61, it would be an ominous sign. We already had a Lower Low intraday today.

In my annual forecast for 2008, I mentioned to the T&C Group and clients, we would have a January 08 Low, a February High and an April 08 Major Low. If the decline is minimal, we should reach the uptrend channel on the monthly SPX chart and retest June 06 Lows at 1220 SPX.

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What's next

From last night's email:
"For Monday, the bias is UP atleast in the first hour, down into Midday (11.40 am), as it is an inversion day, we'll have to see how it unfolds afterwards, but the bias is for a rally into 2.35 pm atleast.**

Speculative Path: 10.45-55 High, 11.40L ,2.35 High."
We got an 11 am High, a decline into noontime, 12.30L and we also got the rally to 2.35 pm High of the day and promptly reversed 11 SP's. Not too shabby.

Amazingly we remain in a sideways trend (click on hourly chart to enlarge). The expectation is for another 1-2 day rally and some more choppiness. There is a CIT at 11 am and 1.30 pm tomorrow, which is likely going to be the Highs of the day.

2 intraday Times to watch today 2/20 LE

2 intraday Times to watch today 2/20 LE(There are more):

9.35 am CIT, most likely a LOW

12.20-30 pm, most likely a HIGH


As mentioned before, I am still expecting 2/21-22 CIT to be an important LOW.

Update

The 2.15 CIT arrived 11 minutes late at 2.26 pm as a HIGH.

This is why we have one rule: Trade the CITs, not the biases.

2/19/08 T&C Daily Email Alert

"We were looking for a 2/13/08 CIT which was a High.

The next Major Time and Cycle Cluster is due 2/21-22/08.

Short term tomorrow 2/19/08, expect a Major intraday turn, ideally at 2.15 pm.

Current Bias is Open High, 2.15 LOD, Close High."


From the 2/19/08 T&C Daily email Alert.

Down into 2/22 CIT Lows

From yesterday's update: "I have a 9.40 and 9.55 am CIT"

When the markets gapped down this morning, it was obvious a Low was being made in the first half hour.

The 9.55 CIT was the LOD sofar, looks like a down day, which should basically continue into 2/22 Lows.

Next Time& Cycle Cluster

Tomorrow 2/15, OE Day, is biased to be up in the first half hour.

I have a 9.40 and 9.55 am CIT.


Yesterday 2/13 was a daily CIT High and we're down today.

The next Big Time and Cycle Cluster is due 2/21-22/08.

Intraday SPX 2/8/08

From 2/1/08 High, we have made 5 waves down and are now in wave 2 up (Click on chart to enlarge).

The next hourly CIT arrives 2/8@1st hour. If a High, we should be down into OE week.

Friday's 2/8/08 Bias: High of the Day is expected in the 1st hour (or at 2.05 pm), Noon Low, rally to 2.05H, decline into last hour. (from daily email to subs)*


CITs (Highs or Lows) 2/8/08: 9.35, 11.50, 2.05, 3.10 pm, Hourly CIT 2/8@10.35 am

Speculative Path Friday 2/8/08: 9.35HOD, 1st hour HOD, 12.00L, 2.05H, 3.10L*

*Crystalballs don't exist, so this is an educated Guess and will change as the actual markets unfolds.

Maharishi passed away Tuesday 2/5/08.

His Holiness Maharishi Mahesh Yogi passed away Tuesday 2/5/08.

I thank him for all he has given me and continues to give me..


He had a farewell message on 1/11/08, heard around the world..

http://youtube.com/watch?v=O6ybUosa3ZA


Jai Guru Dev

The Trapdoor to Hell

On January 17th 2008, we took out the 3/14/07 and 8/16/07 Lows in one swift down move. Up until that time we could have been making a simple ABC flat with a potential bullish triple bottom, but eversince we took out this Trapdoor to Hell, the Bears have the upper hand.

There are some danger signs to watch closely:

1. We BACK-KISSED the Major Trapdoor to Hell Resistance at 1360-80 SPX right at the OPEN Friday 1/25/08 @ 1368 SPX and reversed -40 SPs into the close.

2. Eversince the 12/26/07 HIGH, There has been some extreme negative Time translation: 16 of the last 22 Trading days were serious decline days, much more than the consecutive rally days, which lasted only for 1- 1 1/2 trading days.

3. The strong downtrend is still very much intact , the danger has Not passed yet. Notice the 3 Red Down Trendlines in the chart (Click to enlarge) showing the angle of descent becoming steeper and steeper.

4. Although Cycles suggests we could still be in a brief rally phase into Feb 08, the overall trend remains Down into April 08.

We have yet to see CLEAR signs of reversals to the Upside. It is best to wait on these reversal signals first:

1. We need to see more than 1-2 Rally days.
2. Breaking above the severe downtrendlines with increased volume.
3. Breaking above the Major Trapdoor to Hell, which remains Key resistance.

The next hourly CIT arrives 1/30@1.50 pm, it should be interesting.

Good Luck and trade Safely.

Update hourly CITs

Let's review the hourly CITs published on the blog (Click on chart to enlarge):

1. 1/8@10.35-11.40 am => Result: 10.15 High of the day (pt 1 on chart)

2. 1/9@1.50-2.55 pm => Result: 2.20 pm Low of the day (pt 2 on chart)

3. 1/10@11.40-12.45 pm => Result: 12.30 High (pt 3 on chart)

4. 1/10@1.50-2.55 pm => Result: 3.40 pm High of the day (pt 4 on chart)

We have been declining ever since the 1/10 Highs. The reason I bring up these hourly CITs is there are 2 of them today:

5. 9.30-10.35 am => Result: High at close yesterday (pt 5 on chart)

6. 12.45-1.50 pm => Result: ??

The hourly CITs has been useful to determine the short term swings and could also be used to help determine the intermediate Highs and Lows.

Double Hourly CIT Watch today

From last night's T&C daily email alert:

"The Series of cycles has 2 versions for the January Low, either 1/9/08 is the Low and we rally through OE week and into Feb High or we make a 1/10H and decline into OE weekend and then rally into Feb High. Which will it be? Both Scenarios have merit.

For clues we would need to watch the double hourly CIT on the SPX we have coming in between 11.40-12.45 and 1.50-2.55 pm. Right around 1pm tomorrow Bernanke speaks.

How important are these hourly CITs? Well there was an hourly CIT due 1/9@1.50-2.55 Hourly, the LOD arrived at 2.20 pm, right in the heart of the hourly CIT. The hourly CIT before that was 1/8@10.35-11.40 am, we had the HOD at 10.15 am, about 20 min off. Now we have 2 hourly CITs tomorrow, which makes tomorrow doubly important to watch, along with the fact that the alternative Series heads down into OE week. To support this idea, we have some tides saying the exact same thing, top out 1/10 and head down into OE week.

OTOH, we have the main series that suggested this decline in the first place, from the 12/27-31 Highs heading down into 1/8-9 Lows, and a completed C wave down on the 5 min SPX from the 12/26 Highs, we also made a potential WBOE Low, are deeply oversold and near extremes, so a strong rally is possible."

In addition, there are 5 min CITs 1/10 at: 9.55 am, 12.30 and 2.50 pm EST

It would be bearish for Option Expiration week, if the double hourly CITs today were a High and Bullish if they are Lows.

Next week is determined by today's action.