Intraday Times today

2 intraday Times to watch today: 10.40 am** and 4.10-4.15 pm**(from daily email)

Both Times were double hits. 10.40 was a low.

There was also a CIT at 1.10 pm, which was a Low 1.05 Low @1371 June SP (Notice the support in that area), bias is we rally into the close HIGH.

As mentioned before we should be down into 4/23-24 Lows. Tomorrow should be down to new lows, especially if the close today is a HIGH.

CRB Mother Divine Crash?

With Gold and Crude Oil nose diving today, I thought this chart might be a Relevant Scenario.

The CRB chart, courtesy of George Slezak of stockindextiming.com who sees this potential Crash analog, shows a possible Mother Divine Crash Formation (see 4/4 post) with a 4/15 +/- HIGH and a crash into 5/3/08, the New Moon-2.

I am not sure if there is a correlation, but I sure wouldn't want to be long Gold and Oil right now...

Mother Divine High and Low

I previously mentioned that the start and End of the 9 Days of Mother Divine (MD) are often CITs. The 9 days of MD started and ended on 4/7/08 and 4/15/08. 4/7 was wave 1 or A High (click on chart to enlarge) and 4/15/08 Low was wave 2 or B Low. I also had a daily timing Change in Trend (CIT) on 4/15. You should have been long and strong from that day onwards.

Additional Notes on the 4/10 Daily CIT

The NDX back-kissed the broken TL at yesterday's Highs (click on chart to enlarge).




Yesterday's CIT needs some additional confirmation today.

If we take out yesterday's Lows, the CIT was a confirmed High (preferred bias).

If we take out yesterday's High, the CIT was a confirmed Low.

The CIT is valid until the next daily CIT comes along sometime next week..

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Next Time and Cycle CIT Cluster: 4/10/08

Next Time and Cycle CIT Cluster: 4/10/08

It should be a Major Turn.

Happy Vedic New Year!

Happy Vedic New Year!

The Moon in Vedic Astrology (Jyotish) is the number One Planet as it governs the Mind (Spirit) and thus rules everything, as we "destroy, maintain and create" our Universe first in the mind, before it manifests in the outer world.

In Vedic Astrology, the New Moon in Spring (Between Mid March and Mid April) that starts the 9 days of Mother Divine, is the Start of the Vedic New Year. The Vedic New Year begins as new life is blossoming with the awakening of the earth after the long slumber of winter.

Generally speaking, it is an auspicious time to form new resolutions, begin new business ventures, new projects, new plantings, new relationships; anything which benefits from the thrust of nature which is supporting the blossoming of new life.

This New Year (2008-2009) has a special quality known as "Sarvadhari". Sarvadhari is a Sanskrit word meaning "all-bearing". The Sanskrit name signifies the particular cycle we are in this year, which is part of a larger sixty year cycle. It denotes the general global trends, strengths and challenges of life at this time.

Happy Sarvadhari

Chakrapani, a well renowned Vedic Astrologer has more on this New Year:

http://www.vedicastrology.com/sarvadhari08/

Intraday CITs today

CITs today were 9.35 Low and 12.45 High. Expecting a retrace back to the 2pmish Low area, before a rally into the close.

There is also a 1.30 and 3.30 CIT, bias now is 1.30 Low and 3.30 High,
tomorrow should be down.

Today is the start of the 9 days of Mother Divine, often a CIT.

The female, primordial forces and Natural Laws responsible for all of creation manifests on these 9 days of Mother Divine in their primordial original forms of dissolution, maintenance and creation.

On the first three days, Mother Divine is lively as a powerful primordial force and Natural Laws of destruction (Durga) in order to destroy all our impurities, vices and defects in our lives.

The next three days, Mother Divine is lively as the Natural Laws of maintenance that gives inexhaustible wealth (Lakshmi) to maintain our lives .

The final set of three days, Mother Divine is lively as the Natural Laws that governs creation that gives knowledge, wisdom and Intelligence (Saraswati).

The Crash History of the 9 Days of Mother Divine

Crash History of the 9 Days of Mother Divine

Chris Carolan's Original Study on October Panics:

http://www.calendarresearch.com/chapter1.html

http://www.calendarresearch.com/autumnpanics.html

Puetz came with the idea for spring crash possibilities.

Below is the Vedic Lunar Calender version of the above ideas. (All ancient calenders were Lunar Calenders, as the Moon governs the Mind, the spirit)/

The 9 Lunar days of Mother Divine occurs twice a year in the Vedic Lunar Calender in the Lunar Month around Mid March/Mid April and also in Mid September/Mid October. It starts around the New Moon.

***Please note that the 9 Days of Mother Divine occurs twice a year, but Crashes Seldom happen in a Decade, so take it fwiw.*** In 1929, the 9 days started on 10/02/29 and ended on 10/10/29. There was a 10/2/29L and a 10/10/29 secondary High Before the Big Crash into a few days before the New Moon (=Deepavali (Mahalaksmi) Day, Natural laws governing Wealth) following the 9 Days.

In 1987, the 9 days started on 09/23/87 and ended on 10/02/87 .There was a 09/22/87L and a 10/02/87 secondary High before the Big Crash into a few days before the New Moon (=Deepavali (Mahalaksmi) Day, Natural laws governing Wealth) following the 9 Days.

In 1997, the 9 days started on 10/1/97 and ended 10/9/97, There was an 10/8/97H before the Big Crash into a few days before the New Moon (=Deepavali (Mahalaksmi) Day, Natural laws governing Wealth) following the 9 Days.

In all 3 Crash-markets the secondary High was at the END of the 9 days and the New Moon (Mahalakmi Day)- 2 after that was the Crash Lows.

It is asif all wealth was surrendered (crashed) to the lotus feet of the Great Goddess of wealth (Mahalaksmi).

The female, primordial forces and Natural laws responsible for all of creation manifests on these 9 days of Mother Divine in their primordial original forms of Dissolution, maintenance and creation. It's considered to be a very auspicious time.

Some more 9 days examples were:

03/26/01 - 04/03/01, we had a 03/27/01H and a 04/04/01L 09/28/00 - 10/06/00, we had a 09/28/00H and a 10/05/00H 04/05/00 - 04/13/00, we had a 04/04/00L and a 04/14/00L 09/23/87 - 10/01/87, we had a 09/22/87L and a 10/02/87H 03/29/87 - 04/06/87, we had a 03/30/87L and a 04/07/87H 10/02/29 - 10/11/29, we had a 10/01/29H and a 10/11/29H

Note that the start and the end of the 9 days is a CIT, ie a High OR Low.

The 9 Days starts on 4/7/08 and ends on 4/15/08 this time around.

IF we had a Crash signature, then we would have a secondary High on 4/15/08 +/1 and a crashwave into the next New Moon-2 = 5/3/08.

http://calendars.globalgoodnews.com/vedic/vedic-calendar.htm http://calendars.globalgoodnews.com/vedic/04.html ***Please note again that the 9 Days of Mother Divine occurs twice a year, but Crashes Seldom happen in a Decade, so take it fwiw.*** The next 9 days starts on 9/30/08 and ends 10/9/08, The New Moon after that is 10/28/08, "Deepavali, the festival of Lights for Mahalaksmi, the Great Natural Law of Wealth. 

The Series of Cycles

A while back I discovered a repeating Series (group) of cycles that has been in the markets for many years on and off and recently it predicted the July 16 2007 Highs to the day and subsequent sharp decline into 8/16/07 Lows (This was well documented in the T&C Group). When it worked, it was almost perfect, it also predicted in general the rally afterwards into the October Highs.

The Cycle then faded and inverted and didn't predict the magnitude of the decline after the October 07 Highs, which threw me off abit as I had become attached to the wonder and accuracy of the Cycle. Later I found, that there is a normal variance in the Cycle, when studying the "multiples" of the Cycle and it is mainly a Time Cycle, not a Price Cycle, ie it doesn't always predict the magnitude of the rallies and declines.

In general however, the series of cycles has been pretty good and in the last month or so, has reasserted itself. It recently predicted the 3/24/08 Highs and decline into 3/28/08 Lows. The actual Lows was a double Bottom right at the Open on Monday 3/31/08. The next very short term swing should be Up in the next couple of days.

The one thing about the Series of Cycles, it doesn't tell me in advance when it will stop working for awhile, before it reasserts itself, so buyer beware. I am not sure why it fades and then reappears in a crystal clear repetition, but I just take it as it comes and I work with many other Time & cycles techniques to confirm it is still dominating the markets.

3/24 Cycle Highs

3/24 predicted Highs still stands and we're currently down -10 today

The 10.45 CIT was a 10.50 LOD sofar.

The remaining 2 CITs at 2.15 and 2.45 pm EST should be highs.

We should close on our Lows, we are on our way to our expected lows in a couple of days...

Warning signs

There were warning signs for the current breakdown. Staying consistently below the 200 DMA and staying 8 weeks below the Trapdoor to Hell were some of them. Breaching the Long term SPX Monthly uptrend channel (Click on chart to enlarge) was another bearish indicator.
As mentioned before, the Series of Cycles predicted at the beginning of the year, a January Low, February High and April 08 Low (and more). The detailed series was pretty good too: 1/23L, 2/13H, 2/26H, 3/5H, 3/11L, 3/13L, 3/14H... Lower Lows are out there. The decline is not over quite yet.

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The Trapdoor to Hell Part 2

Ever since I first mentioned the Trapdoor to Hell triple Resistance @1370-90 SPX area (click on chart to enlarge) more than 6 weeks ago, it has proved to be Major Resistance for any rallies, which suggests we remain in a weak and dangerous market.
The market needs to prove this is anything different than a bear rally by first of all taking out the 1395 SPX Resistance, as long as we stay under this, the market remains weak and bearish.

Our Market leader, the weekly NDH has broken below its long term weekly channel. If we have weekly close below this channel and below the 1/23/08 Lows @ 1698 NDH/QQQQ 41.61, it would be an ominous sign. We already had a Lower Low intraday today.

In my annual forecast for 2008, I mentioned to the T&C Group and clients, we would have a January 08 Low, a February High and an April 08 Major Low. If the decline is minimal, we should reach the uptrend channel on the monthly SPX chart and retest June 06 Lows at 1220 SPX.

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What's next

From last night's email:
"For Monday, the bias is UP atleast in the first hour, down into Midday (11.40 am), as it is an inversion day, we'll have to see how it unfolds afterwards, but the bias is for a rally into 2.35 pm atleast.**

Speculative Path: 10.45-55 High, 11.40L ,2.35 High."
We got an 11 am High, a decline into noontime, 12.30L and we also got the rally to 2.35 pm High of the day and promptly reversed 11 SP's. Not too shabby.

Amazingly we remain in a sideways trend (click on hourly chart to enlarge). The expectation is for another 1-2 day rally and some more choppiness. There is a CIT at 11 am and 1.30 pm tomorrow, which is likely going to be the Highs of the day.

2 intraday Times to watch today 2/20 LE

2 intraday Times to watch today 2/20 LE(There are more):

9.35 am CIT, most likely a LOW

12.20-30 pm, most likely a HIGH


As mentioned before, I am still expecting 2/21-22 CIT to be an important LOW.