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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

The Flash Crash Cycle is coming soon


The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash.

What only a few people know is that this Cycle has been in the markets ever since the Flash crash of 4/14/00.


The next potential Flash Crash is coming soon.

When exactly?  In March 2013

Are you ready for it? 
 
If Yes, then enjoy the ride!
 
If No, then get prepared and enjoy the ride!
 
My next blog post will be after the Flash Crash cycle Low.
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23 comments:

  1. SurenFebruary 26, 2013 at 3:34 PM

    What is the probability of a FLASH CRASH coming? We were supposed to have one in Oct. 2011 which never came.

    Most of the short trades were cancelled anyways later on. How can you capitalize if it materializes, if the trade is going to get canceled by the SSEC?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ian G.February 26, 2013 at 4:11 PM

    Suren, that is a good question,

    Not all are flashy, but you are aware that we lost a whopping 145 SP's in 2 weeks from 9/2011H to 10/4/11L. If that is not worth trading, then I don't know what is!

    ReplyDelete
  3. MarketguyFebruary 26, 2013 at 8:35 PM

    Raj, how can you have a "cycle" with 1 instance (ie., the 05/10 flash crash)?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ian G.February 26, 2013 at 8:57 PM

    Marketguy, The cycle has been in the market since 4/14/00 Crash Lows.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MarketguyFebruary 26, 2013 at 9:27 PM

    bold call bud....any estimate on early or later in the month?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ian G.February 26, 2013 at 9:46 PM

    It is in March sometime

    ReplyDelete
  7. SurenFebruary 27, 2013 at 7:00 AM

    I was refering to the 5/6/10 Flash Crash where trades were cancelled by the SEC. Here DOW dropped a 1,000 points within minutes.

    I would not put the 9/20/11 to 10/3/11 as a Flash Crash. It was a market correction.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ian G.February 27, 2013 at 7:12 AM

    That is right Suren,

    I am not only referring to the 5/6/10 FC day, but to the entire FC Cycle, the 1-3 weeks (or more) surrounding that day.

    There is a definite FC Cycle lasting weeks, which is due again in March 2013.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SurenFebruary 27, 2013 at 3:02 PM

    Damn good call on the decline and then new high. DOW hit a new high today although Nasdaq & SPX did not. Merriman calls this intermarket bearishness.

    I am looking forward to the weeks of 15-20% FC/correction.

    ReplyDelete
  10. bobFebruary 27, 2013 at 5:27 PM

    has all flash crash cycle outcome been declines in the past years?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Ian G.February 27, 2013 at 5:33 PM

    Hi Bob,

    5 out of 7 were declines, 2 were not

    ReplyDelete
  12. MarketguyFebruary 27, 2013 at 7:16 PM

    Raj, do you think the flash crash low is also going to be in March (or just the initial decline)?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Ian G.February 27, 2013 at 7:57 PM

    Correction:

    7 out of 9 were declines, 2 were not.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ian G.February 28, 2013 at 8:09 AM

    Marketguy, it is most likely in March, then we rally again

    ReplyDelete
  15. MarketguyFebruary 28, 2013 at 12:47 PM

    lol, at this rate the flash crash will be from 1600 :-)

    ReplyDelete
  16. bobFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:01 PM

    Feb after the election is usually a negative month so I guess that can add to the theory of a Flash crash

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  17. bobFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:30 PM

    since this Feb is looking like a positive month to me the Flash crash should correct this in March. Just my 2 cents

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  18. Ian G.February 28, 2013 at 1:33 PM

    Marketguy, the market is unfolding as it should.

    The only question there is how mcuh can the FED control any decline here.

    http://www.mcoscillator.com/images/uploads/POMO_Cumulative_600px.gif

    This chart of Tom McClellan shows why in general we don't fight the FED.

    Notice how the FED pumped lots of Dollars starting 12/31/12 Lows.

    ReplyDelete
  19. qichengmMarch 2, 2013 at 5:54 PM

    Hi Raj,

    If it were FED to buy the market, why commercial would short ES ands SP1 as shown here,

    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SP.png

    and

    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
  20. Ian G.March 2, 2013 at 7:42 PM

    qichengm,

    I don't know why the comercials are net short, but the FED has made a
    QE3 Sep 2012 Announcement: Fed Announces 40 Billion Dollars in Monthly MBS Purchases, ZIRP Through 2015

    http://www.policymic.com/articles/14668/qe3-announcement-fed-announces-40-billion-dollars-in-monthly-mbs-purchases-zirp-through-2015

    ReplyDelete
  21. MarketguyMarch 5, 2013 at 12:28 PM

    flash crash huh Raj? looks alot more like a blow off top (or maybe it just keeps going).

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ian G.March 5, 2013 at 1:01 PM

    MarketGuy,

    Subscribers were long into today's rally from 3/1 Low, perhaps I should update and review the recent action.

    ReplyDelete
  23. bobMarch 5, 2013 at 1:20 PM

    it is like I feel the crash cycle coming on as the optimism is way to high right now

    ReplyDelete