Friday, October 21, 2016

The Dominant alternating cycle

http://safehaven.com/article/42824/the-dominant-alternating-cycle

I first mentioned the 47 TD alternating cycle back on September 9 2016, when it was looking for an early September High. The 41-42 week cycle mentioned in that same post, also topped out at the same time and has an average 107 SP decline. 


The dominant 47 TD (Trading Days) alternating High and Low cycle has been in the markets since late September 2015 and suggests a 11/08/16 Election Low, with a minimum 2093 SPX channel Target.
                                                                                 
1. 09/29/15L - 12/02/15H, Low to High.
2. 12/02/15H - 02/11/16L, High to Low.
3. 02/11/16L - 04/20/16H, Low to High.
4. 04/20/16H - 06/27/16L, High to Low.
5. 06/27/16L – 09/07/16H, Low to High.
6. 09/07/16H – 11/08/16L, High to Low is next!

Also notice 34 TD, after the 47 TD Cycle High or Low is also a CIT (High or Low):
  1. 09/29/15L – 11/16/15L = 34 TD
  2. 12/02/15H – 01/20/16L = 32 TD
  3. 02/11/16H – 04/01/16H = 34 TD
  4. 04/20/16H – 06/08/16H = 34 TD
  5. 06/27/16L – 08/15/16H = 34 TD
  6. 09/01/16L – 10/19/16H = 33 TD


The Dow Jones
down channel support touches the 61.8% retrace by 11/8. If we do the same 61.8% in the SPX we will target 2069 SPX at the 200 DMA.

Conclusion:  The 34 TD CIT of the 47 TD Cycle arrived 1 day earlier at the 10/19H at 2148.44 SPX, which was a double Top with the 10/14 Apex CIT High at 2149.19 SPX.  From the 10/19H, the 47 TD Cycle suggests we see a choppy decline into 11/8 election Low, targeting 2093 SPX or 2069 SPX and a strong rally afterwards.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Friday, October 14, 2016

Intraday 10/14 Update Forecast

Intraday 10/14  10.30 am Forecast Update:

Globex futures have been sharply higher, currently Up +11, on the latest news http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html 

Often (80%), though not always, when Globex futures have been higher all night, we see the High of Day at the open or in the 1st hour.


We gapped sharply higher and saw a 10.20H at 2143 /ES, right at trend line resistance.

There is an hourly Apex CIT at 10.35-11.40 +/- am today.

The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

If the midday Low is lower than the 1st hour Low, it indicates underlying weakness and suggests a last hour lowest Low.

If the midday Low is higher than the 1st hour Low, it indicates underlying strength and suggests a last hour highest Low and higher High.


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 10/14/16: 12.35, 12.50, 3.20 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.10L

Actual: 9.50H, 10.05L, 10.20H

Friday sees a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.20 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 11.15 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at the 12.35 or 12.50 time CIT, rally to a 2.00 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.10 cycle Low at the 3.20 time CIT.


Tuesday, October 11, 2016

10/11 update



Quote

from 10/10: "We are right now at triangle resistance  at 2163.50 /ES and 2170 SPX.  The intraday cycle today is biased higher and tomorrow is biased lower."

The markets topped yesterday right at triangle resistance at 2163.50 /ES and 2169.60 SPX and promptly reversed into this morning's Lows

It remains a daytraders market, but we are still expecting an 10/10L+/-1

We gapped sharply lower this morning to a 10.25 1st hour Low at 2139.75 /ES, right at trendline support.

emini.png

The intraday cycle today sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

If the midday Low is lower than the 1st hour Low, it suggests underlying weakness and suggests we will see a last hour lowest Low.

If the midday Low is higher than the 1st hour Low, it suggests underlying strength and suggests we will see a last hour higher Low and higher High.

Tomorrow is an Inversion day, with a 79% chance we see a 1st hour 10.20 High and a 21% chance we invert to a 1st hour 10.20 Low.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

10/10 short term Low

Review: In my 9/22 last public post, "I was looking for a 9/23 High"

Forecast #1&2 from the 9/22 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The Cycle bias we rally into 9/23H and then decline into 9/29L"

Actual: We saw a 9/22H (#1 on chart below), 1 day earlier that remains the High todate, also the publicly forecasted 9/7H, remains the High todate. From the 9/22H we saw a choppy decline into 9/29L (#2) as expected.



Forecast #3&4 from the 9/25 Weekend Report: "The updated Cycle bias is we see a decline into Monday 9/26L and a retest 9/29L, then see a rally into Monday 10/3 solar CIT High and decline into Monday 10/10L"

Actual: We saw a 9/26L and a retest 9/29L, then a rally into Friday 9/30H (#3), 1 day earlier than the 10/3H and then we saw a choppy decline into Friday 10/7L, which may be the Low, 1 day away from Monday's projected 10/10L+/-1 (#4)

What's Next: Monday 10/10+/-1 should be the next short term Low and we rally into the next Time and Cycle Cluster High. The current compressed market suggests a larger trending move is due soon, be prepared.