Monday, March 21, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles 3/21/16

Good Morning,

SwingtradersWe rally into 3/18-21 High at the 3/21 Solar and Apex CIT, decline to a XXX Low and rally into XXX High

As all trends are Up, trading against the trend is like swimming upstream, so be alert.

Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High.

If the midday High is higher than the 1st hour High, it indicates strength and we will have an 80% chance we see a last hour highest High.

If the midday High is lower than the 1st hour High, it indicates weakness and suggests we see a last hour lowest High and lower Lows.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 3/21/16: 10.10, 11.05, 12.30 pm Eastern, all +/- 5-10 min


Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H, all +/- 30 min


Monday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low, rally to a 10.30 cycle High at the 10.10 time CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low at the 11.05 time CIT, rally to a 12.20 cycle High at the 12.30 time CIT, decline to a 2.00 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.40 cycle High+/-30.

Friday, March 18, 2016

The Inverted Cycle and the next Solar CIT has a March 18-21 High

Review of the 2/12 blogpost on longer term CyclesThere is a confluence in several markets, (SPX, Bonds and Crude Oil) for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.

 2/12 Forecast 1: “The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016… We should make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.

Actual: SPX bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 236 SP’s into today's Highs.

2/12 Forecast 2: “The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016”

Actual: Crude Oil bottomed at the 2/12/16 Low and have rallied a sharp $14.31 into today's Highs.

Forecast3“The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 12 2016 week.”

Actual: Bond market Interest Rates bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 3.48 Interest Rate points so far.

Conclusion: All 3 markets bottomed at exactly the same date, 2/11/16 Low+/-1.

Shorter term SPX Forecasts

Actual: We saw a 3/4 High,1 day later and declined 39.88 SP's into 3/10 Low.

Forecast from the Friday 3/11 Daily Email: The inverted cycle predicted the 2/11L, 2/24L and 3/4H. It now suggests a 3/11L and a rally into 3/17H+/-1. There is a 891 CD Fixed cycle due 3/17 as well"

Forecast from the Saturday 3/12 weekend Email: “ The cycle bias is we are higher into Monday 3/21 Solar and daily Apex CIT (Change in Trend)"

Actual: From the 3/10 Low, so far, we rallied 77 SP's into 3/17 High.

What's Next: We make a 3/18 High+/-1 at the next Solar CIT (Change in Trend) and start another decline to the next swing Geometric CIT Low.

If we see a last hour High today 3/18 (68% chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour High and bias higher.

If we see a last hour Low today 3/18 (32% Chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour Low and bias lower.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast: March 2 Major swing High

Forecast 1 &2: From my 2/12 Raj T&C Daily Email: From the 2/12 Low+/-1,  we rally into Option Expiration week”
Actual: We made a 2/11 major Low (#1 on chart) at 1810.11 SPX as expected, which was the 2/12 Geometric Time CIT (Change in Trend), the 176-77 Trading Day and 90 Calendar Day Cycle Low. From the 2/11 Low, we saw a  sharp 3 day 120.58 SP’s rally into Option Expiration week (#2 on chart).

Forecast 3 &4: From the 2/24 Raj T&C Update: “ The current cycle bias is: we see a 2/24 Low, then rally to a  3/2-3 major High”
Actual: We made a 2/24 Low (#3 on chart) and rallied into 3/1 High (#4 on chart) so far. Did we see a Super Tuesday March 1 High? It is possible, but we still have an important 3/2 at 1.50-2.55 hourly+/- 1 hour CIT today to watch for a potential High.

What’s next: We see a 3/2-3 major swing High at the 3/1 Geometric and 3/3 Solar Time CIT and 22 Trading Day Cycle and then start a relatively sharp decline into the next projected Time and Cycle cluster Low.