Monday, June 23, 2014

Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34287/time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast


Review: The 6/2 T&C Cluster CIT from my last public post was a minor 6/2 Low.
We didn’t see any reversal lower, so shorts were not triggered.

Forecast from the June 7 weekend report: “Odds are good we will see higher highs Monday, 6/9. A couple of arguments for a 6/6-9 swing High: 1. Fibo: 10/11/07H-4/26/10H= 928 X 2.618 = 2430 CD +10/11/07H = 6/6/14. 2. The 423 hourly Cycle is due near the close 6/6 to open 6/9. 3. Mercury goes Retrograde on 6/7, often a CIT. From this 6/6-9 High, we should see a brief sharp decline into 6/11 Solar CIT. We expect a decent pullback of at least 30 SP’s (1930 SPX) to even 50+ SP’s to the 1900 SPX+/-10 area, before we bottom.”

Actual: We made a 6/9 swing High and saw a 30 SP decline into 6/12 Solar CIT Low of the week, before the rally into Option Expiration week.

Forecast from the June 19 report: “The 6/22 Solar CIT (change in Trend) is biased to be a 6/23 High and  targets major Long term channel resistance at 1966-68 SPX.”

Actual: We rallied into Monday 6/23 High, with an intraday Friday High of 1963.91 SPX so far.



The 35 week cycle has produced major Highs and Lows in the last 5 years: 3/6/09L-35 week-
11/2/09L-34-7/1/10L-33-2/18/11H-33-10/4/11L-35-6/4/12L-38-2/28/13-32-10/9/13L-37-6/27/14+/-.

The 333 TD/69 wks/484 Cycle has produced major Highs and Lows since the last 8 years :  
7/18/06L-325 TD-10/31/07H-338-3/06/09L-332-07/01/10L-335-10/27/11H-332-2/26/13L-333 TD-
6/23/14+/-.  The 333 TD or 69 wk cycle is double the 35 wk cycle and suggests a major CIT around 6/23/14+/- week.

What’s next: We make a 6/23 swing High. As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow to confirm this. We will then decline into my next upcoming Time Square, Geometric and Solar CIT major Cluster.




6/25 Update:   "As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow (6/24) to confirm this"

We finally saw a nice reversal lower yesterday, confirming a short term High is in.
We need to see a follow through decline to get a larger decline going.
 

Monday, June 2, 2014

The next major Time and Cycle Cluster

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34019/the-next-major-time-and-cycle-cluster

Review: In my last post, I was looking for a 5/22-23 High, based on the 5/22 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend), but as soon as we rallied beyond 5/23, we knew right away, it was a rare miss as Solar CIT’s are maximum +/- 1 Trading Day (TD). Solar CITs have an unusual high 85-90% accuracy, but at times they have 10-15% misses.

The next major Time and Cycle (T&C) cluster is 5/30-6/3, centered on Monday 6/2, which is 1 TD from the Friday 5/30 Geo CITs, Sunday 6/1 is Solar CIT, 6/2 is a Time Square CIT (see below) and 6/3 Calendar to Trading Days CIT. 


The 35 TD +/-1 Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is due on 6/3+/-1: 8/2/13H-9/19H-11/13L-12/31H-2/20/14L-4/11/14L-6/03/14H+/-.  There is a 207 TD Bank Cycle due on 6/2 +/-. There is also an hourly time CIT focused on the 1st hour of Monday 6/2.

Squares in Trading days CITs
The squares in Trading Days CIT is a Square of 9 timing technique that gives very
precise Change in Trends (CIT), all dates are +/-1 TD.


Red Lines are Square of 9 mostly Lows from 10/11/07H, the most recent one is 6/2 and should be a High.

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD), take the Square root of 1285 and
you get: 35.85^2 (35.85 squared)

Now increment that number by 1 or 2 each time and re square to get future CITs:
2. 35.85+2 = 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 35.85+3 = 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 35.85+4 = 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 02/05/14L +1
5. 35.85 +5 =49.85^2 = 1669 TD + 10/11/07H = 06/02/14+/-1

Blue Lines are Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H.
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines
04/02/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
05/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Calendar Days to Trading Days relationship in the market causes CITs.
10/4/11L: + 52 CD = 11/25/11L, + 53 TD = 12/19/11L
+181 CD = 04/02/12H, +182 TD = 06/25/12L
+241 CD = 06/01/12L, + 239 TD = 09/14/12H
+346 CD = 09/14/12H, +345 TD = 02/20/13H
+409 CD = 11/16/12L, + 409 TD = 05/22/13H
+454 CD = 12/31/12L, + 459 TD = 08/02/13H
+511 CD = 2/26/13L, + 506 TD = 10/09/13L
+596 CD = 5/22/13H, + 596 TD = 02/20/14 = 2/20/14L
+629 CD = 6/24/13L + 629 TD = 04/04/14H -1
+668 CD = 08/02/13H, +668 TD = 06/03/14+/-1

What’s next: We have rallied into the current T&C Cluster, centered on 6/2, suggesting a major swing High forming, which should be followed by a decline into the next Time and Cycle Cluster Low.