Friday, January 17, 2014

The active Panic Cycle

From my last public post:“We made a 12/31 High and have started a decline. There are some indications that we will see another High later on in January 2014.”

Actual: From the 12/31H, we declined 33.9 SP's into a 1/13 Low and have reversed higher since.

There are various unique Time and Cycles techniques used to determine important Change in Trends (CIT), Highs and Lows and Cycles Research to find “dominant or active” cycles is the most important and takes precedence above other timing techniques. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent swing Highs or Lows+/-1 day, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 trading day accuracy, as opposed to fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks. The active Cycle is best used in combination with the proprietary Solar and Geometric Timing CITs. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the prediction accuracy to 90-95%.

A week or so ago an active/dominant Cycle was discovered, that is part of a larger upcoming Panic Cycle.
From the 1/12 Forecast: “The current dominant cycle has 6 direct hits and predicts a 1/9-10H, decline into 1/14L and then higher into 1/17 swing High, which should retest the 12/31 ATH and even see marginally higher Highs. We will have to see how it performs in OE manipulation week, which normally skews the Time and Cycles.”

Actual: We saw a 1/9-10 High, decline into 1/13 Low (-1), followed by a sharp reversal rally higher and we should rally into January 17-21 and see marginally higher All time Highs.

There is also a long term 228 TD/331 CD fixed Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) due on Jan 17-20, right at the 1/18 Solar Time CIT supporting the active Cycle’s 1/17 swing High.
The 331 CD/228 TD fixed Cycle: 8/11/08H-331-7/08/09L-335-6/8/10L-328-5/2/11H-336-04/02/12H-330-2/26/13L-328-1/17-21
So far the active Panic Cycle currently has 8 direct hits as it pinpointed:
1. 11/20/13 Low
2. 12/09/13H
3. 12/18/13 major Low
4. 12/31/13 swing High
5. 01/07/14 Low (-1)
6. 1/09/14 High
7. 1/14/14L (-1)
8. 1/17/14 swing High

What’s Next: We make a 1/17-21 swing High and start a decline into the next swing cycle Low and then rally once more. We will see a series of swing Highs and Lows, until a major swing High is reached, before the actual Panic wave starts. Be prepared, timing will be important.

1/23 Update: The active Panic Cycle is working its charm. Its focus is on the SPX. The 1/21 SPX High remained the High, while the NDX and BKX made a 1/22 High.  I have said enough publicly, clients are starting to complain.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

The 12/31-1/02 major Time and Cycle Cluster

Forecast: For the December month, we were expecting a rally to All Time Highs into the 12/31-1/2 Major Time and Cycles (T&C) cluster CIT (Change in Trend).

Actual: We have made a 12/31/13 All time High so far.

The 12/31-1/-2 Time and Cycles Cluster:

1/01 Solar CIT => 12/31 High
12/31-1/02 double geometric CIT => 12/31 High
12/30: Sun Square Uranus Conjunct Pluto => 12/31 High
1/03/14 VIX Apex
1/03/14 Major Bradley


1. 140 TD Cycle (see chart above): 2/5/10L, 8/27/10L, 3/18/11L(-2), 10/6/11L(-2), 4/27/12H(+2), 11/16/12L, 6/10/13 miss, 12/30/13H => 12/31 High

2. 177 TD Cycle: 10/21/09H-173-7/1/10L-178-3/16/11L-177-11/25/11L-172-8/2/12L-177-4/18/13L-177-12/30/13 => 12/31 High

3. 55 TD Inverse cycle has 10/9L= 12/30H => 12/31 High

4. 99 hourly cycle due 12/31 = => 12/31 High

5. Banks Index (click on chart to enlarge) has a regular 113 TD Cycle due 1/2/14 => 12/31 High

6. Many Lindsay Low Low High patterns:

a.7/08/09L-818-10/4/11L-818-12/30/13H  => 12/31 High

b. 10/04/11L 409- 11/16/12L-409-12/30/13H => 12/31 High

c. 9/2/08H-972-5/2/11H-972-12/29/13H => 12/31 High

d. 4/28/42L, 3/1/78L, 1/2/14H => 12/31 High

7. Symmetry Point Cycle has 1/6/14 CIT

What’s Next: We made a 12/31 High and have started a decline. There are some indications that we will see another High later on in January 2014.  There are many that are comparing Nikkei 12/31/1989H and 9/3/1929H, with 12/31/2013H and some others are suggesting a mid Jan major High and a potential crash afterwards, but right now there are too many eyes on this Scenario making this unlikely to happen. We wish everyone the very best in the New year.