Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Review and longer term outlook


Review: In my 9/10 blog post, http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/09/review-and-forecast.html, I was looking for a 9/11H, brief pullback into 9/13L and another rally into 9/18H.  It was also mentioned then that a rally above 1692 SPX would lead to a retest of the 8/2 all time Highs.

Actual: We rallied into a 9/11-12 Solar Change in trend (CIT) High, saw a brief pullback into 9/12-13 geometric CIT Low and continued to rally into today, retesting the 8/2 All time Highs at 1709.67 SPX.

Longer term: We made a 35 month cycle Low at the 6/24/13 Low at 1560.33 SPX and have rallied above the 3/24/00H at 1552.87 SPX and 10/11/07H at 1576.09 SPX and trend line, which currently is at 1596 SPX. The markets are bullish above 1560-1575 SPX Make or Break support area and bearish below it.

What’s next shorter term: We should rally into a 9/18 Solar CIT High+/-1 and see a decline into the next Time and Cycle cluster Low.

9/20 Update: 9/18 Solar CIT was the 9/19 High right at the Open High of the Day.
We are now down into my next T&C Cluster CIT. Swing traders that went short at the 9/18-19 High, should be in profits now. Keep your stops tight at the 9/19H.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Time and Cycles Review and Forecast


In my last blog post, I was looking for a decline into 8/16-19 CIT (change in trend), which was a miss as we declined beyond that date.

Forecast from the 8/29 Daily Email (2 weeks ago): "The 8/23-24 Solar time Change in trend (CIT) became a Monday 8/26H. Shorter Term: We decline into 8/28-30 Solar CIT Low, then rally into 9/5 or 9/11 Solar Time CIT lower Highs.

Actual: The 8/29 Solar time CIT was the 8/28 Low. The 9/5 Solar and Geometric time CIT was the 9/6 Low and we are now rallying into the 9/11 Solar time CIT. The proprietary Solar Time CIts continue to be highly accurate.

There was also an 8/29-9/2 Time and Cycle (T&C) CIT Cluster.

Time Squares from 7/18/06 major Low have a long history of accuracy:
7/18/06L + 50 Squared Days = 5/22/13H
7/18/06L + 51 Squared Days = 8/31/13 => 8/28/13L.

Time Squares from 4/26/10 major High also had plenty of hits.
4/26/10H + 33 Squared Days = 04/19/13L
4/26/10H + 34 Squared Days = 06/25/13L
4/26/10H + 35 Squared Days = 09/02/13 => 8/28-30L.

Furthermore, we had a 55 week, 89 TD Cycle, 23 & 45 TD Cycle that became the 8/28/13 Low, which was right at the 11/16/12L- 6/24/13L trend line and down channel support.

What’s next: We broke above the daily down channel and 8/26 last swing High, which is bullish. We should now rally into the 9/11 Solar time CIT, decline into the 9/13 geometric time CIT and rally into the 9/18 Solar CIT and make a lower or higher High. Make or break resistance above is at 1692 SPX, which is both the 78.6% retrace and Trapdoor resistance. A rally above that will lead to a retest of the 8/2 all time Highs.