Sunday, February 26, 2012
In my last post, I mentioned the rally is ending soon, but so far we have not seen any confirmation of a change in trend to down yet, as all trends remains firmly up.
This past week we were up +4.51 SP's as we continued sideways to higher in a potential narrowing wedge, which suggests we should see a relatively sharp break once complete.
The Master Cycle needed to be fine tuned and updated to incorporate the current rally phase.
The updated Master Cycle2 (MC2), since the 12/19/11 Lows projected a 68 Calendar Day rally into 2/25 High (2/24-27) or a 48 Trading Day rally into 2/29 High, which is both a 2/29 geometric CIT and a VIX Apex CIT.
The Master Cycle2, in Cyan (click on chart to enlarge):
1. 10/4/11 Major Low
2. 12/19/11 Major higher Low
3. 1/30/12 higher Low
4. 02/24-29 Major swing High
There are several other reasons to look for a 2/24-29 High:
1. 2/24 is 45 TD 12/19/11 Low
2. 2/24 is 55 TD 12/05/11 High
3. 224 is 81 TD, 9 squared 10/27/11 High
4. 2/28 is 100 TD, 10 squared 10/4/11 Low
5 . 2/24 is 121 TD, 11 squared 8/31/11 High
6. 2/25 is 144 CD, 12 squared 10/4/11 Low
7. 2/25 is 233 CD 7/7/11 High
8. 2/28 is 750 TD 3/6/09 Low
9. 2/27 is 40 squared 10/11/07 High
10. 2/28 is 33 squared 3/6/09 Low
We should see a sharp break after this 2/24-29 High is complete, but we need to see a clear downside reversal to confirm that the highs are in.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
On 2/3 I updated in the comments section of this blog:
"The 1/30 Low was a brief swing Low, we are now in another rally phase."
We are nearing the final Master Cycle 2 High, but as the market has been relentless to the upside and all trends remain up, it is best to wait for a downside confirmation, given by the Master Cycle 2 before getting aggressively short.
The VIX is currently at 18.70, right at its Key DTL. The VIX is in a bullish descending triangle, when it breaks to the upside, it will be bearish for stocks. Key Daily DTL resistance at 18.63 is Make or Break (MOB) trend line Resistance. This should be watched closely.
The time is coming for a wild futures ride. Be prepared.
Please note: The 2012 Master Cycle stock market forecast is due this 2/10-12 weekend.
Please remember, in order to qualify for the 2012 Master Cycle forecast, it takes a 3 Month or longer subscription commitment. For more information: