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Friday, January 27, 2012

Time and Price Targets achieved! What's next?


1/4/12 Master Cycle2 (MC2) prediction :"We should continue to rally into a triple top into 1/18-26 High, with a 1310-30 SPX target. The MC2 was looking for a final 1/26 High +/-1"

Actual: On 1/26, the markets reached 1333.47 SPX intraday High and then saw a reversal lower.

Time, Cycle and Price targets were achieved.

However,  the day by day MC2 was not quite exact in the last week. For this and other reasons, the current bias is that the MC2 has shifted + 2 TD forward.

The MC2 was looking for a 1/18-26H,  in details: 1/18H, 1/20L, 1/24H, 1/25L, 1/26 final High

Actual was + 2 TD: 1/19H (+1), 1/24L (+2), 1/26H(+2), 1/27L(+2) , 1/26 = +2 TD = 1/30 final High.

What's next?:  One final Monday 1/30 High, before we see a relatively sharp decline for a certain number of days, then see yet another rally after that. A final confirmation that the High is in is when we close solidly below the up channel, currently at 1298 SPX. Of course, if we continue dropping Monday, then the original Scenario remains on track.
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12 comments:

  1. AustinJanuary 29, 2012 at 5:19 AM

    Raj
    Are you saying that we have a new high on Monday above 1333? Or do you mean a "test" of 1333 forming a lower high?
    Thanks
    Great work
    Austin

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ian G.January 29, 2012 at 8:13 AM

    Hi Austin,

    Ideally we see a test above 1333, but any retest is fine too.

    Raj

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ian G.January 30, 2012 at 8:39 AM

    "Ofcourse, if we continue dropping Monday, then the original Scenario remains on track."

    So much for the idea that we shifted 2 TD.

    The large down day that the MC2 was looking for right after the Highs were in, is happening today.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AustinJanuary 30, 2012 at 9:29 PM

    Raj
    A nice bullish reversal today. However, you still calling for top in place thus this move will form a lower high?
    Thanks
    Austin

    ReplyDelete
  5. UnknownJanuary 31, 2012 at 2:04 PM

    Raj,

    Since the market topped on schedule instead of +2 TD, do you think the bottom will arrive early by 2 TD, not based on your latest forecast for this week?

    Thanks,
    John

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ian G.January 31, 2012 at 2:22 PM

    Austin, 1/26 was the High.

    John, that is correct.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousFebruary 1, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Are we past your date for the top.......what do you see here now?

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownFebruary 1, 2012 at 11:44 PM

    Raj, Your next Solar CIT is coming up. Solar CIT's are usually hit within one trading day of the forecast, is it not? Any chance it could be a high instead of a low?

    John

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ian G.February 2, 2012 at 8:04 AM

    Charlie, the forecast has changed a little and depends on the next few days.


    John, yes Solar CITs could be Highs or Low. You seem to know when the next Solar CIT is, are you a subscriber?

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousFebruary 2, 2012 at 10:01 AM

    Raj

    Thanks for your response ....look forward to your thoughts at that time! c

    ReplyDelete
  11. UnknownFebruary 2, 2012 at 11:52 AM

    Raj,

    Yes, I am a subscriber. Those Solar CIT's are quite helpful. Am I correct in assuming the Solar and Geometric CIT's are more accurate than the Master Cycle CIT's? Please confirm. Thanks, John.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ian G.February 3, 2012 at 7:49 AM

    Hi John, when the MC is active, it is MC first, then Solar CIts, then geometric CIT.

    The 1/30 Low was the brief swing Low, we are now in another rally phase.

    ReplyDelete